Should Politicians Be Able to Use Prediction Markets? House Bill Proposes Ban

[Oshosondy]

We have talked about this quote on this forum and I think it is one of the reasonsg Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and 30 of his House of Representatives colleagues, including Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), are making a push to ban government officials from accessing prediction markets:

Earlier this week, Polymarket faced scrutiny after a trader won more than $400,000 on a bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office before the end of the month. Criticism focused on the timing of the bet, which appeared just hours before U.S. special forces apprehended Maduro.

On the thread, we also discussed if it is insider work or not, but it is obvious that it is insider work. I think it is a good idea to ban such government officials from accessing prediction markets.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/politicians-able-prediction-markets-house-213657314.html

[Sim_card]

That will be the best thing to do but what if they get access through other means and still place their bet with someone else that's a friend or relatives. The poly market is easy to access by anyone. Look at October 10th crypto market disaster, a trader made millions of dollars from that market dump which I know that it was due to an insider. How will one know these insiders leaking the informations.

[suzanne5223]

I supported the idea of banning the government official from participating in prediction market to avoid manipulation and abuse of government classified information that's not available to the public on prediction market. Besides, if the ban push through people within the government official house hold ^{(who are relative and friends should be included)} because they may also link the information to someone they trust within.
Lets hope this ban will push through if it does. I hope we also see the samething in the crypto market to limit market maker manipulation.

[Smartprofit]

In my opinion, our world will become even more unpredictable and chaotic if politicians freely bet on the Polymarket platform. 🙋

Imagine a situation where politicians make harmful political decisions, hoping to profit from the betting system? What if such decisions lead to human casualties, environmental disasters, and so on? Beyond the moral and ethical consequences, such a practice would lead to catastrophic imbalances and a deterioration of the governance system.

Our world already suffers from cheap political populism. Add to this the realized greed of politicians, and the situation will become even worse...

It should be noted that while banning politicians from betting on the Polymarket platform is easy, enforcing this ban is extremely difficult. All politicians have not only relatives but also friends who would certainly be happy to exploit insider information to make big money. And preventing this is virtually impossible. Human greed is limitless... Nevertheless, in my opinion, such a ban is absolutely necessary.

[Odusko]

There is more to this politically since there did not mention that the trader who won the $400,000 is a politician or just an ordinary trader, and what we should know also is that security in Centralised predictions market like poly market is high and that is the reason we don't have such predictions market all over like we have normal casinos, insider trading is highly prohibited and government try to block every possible way for traders to predict using classified information, if caught the gambler can have a jail sentence.

[Oluwa-btc]

On the thread, we also discussed if it is insider work or not, but it is obvious that it is insider work. I think it is a good idea to ban such government officials from accessing prediction markets.

This is a Great idea absolutely but I still think they'll have their way in as usual, cause there's a way this politicians and government officials operate regarding the fact that they are being suspended or ban from gaining access to such information, so they can always go through it probably through the help of an insider or someone close to them. Therefore I think there should be a strict policy to back that inorder to avoid the manipulations and access.

[viljy]

A useless law. Officials will place bets through front persons. Actually, this is how it is being done now. All these "prediction markets" are outright scams. There should be no betting on events that are easily manipulated or that have a priori insiders. Because if insider information (about something) exists, then it will definitely be used.

[Judith87403]

Rep. Ritchie Torres and 30 House Democrats brought in to view the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to bar federal officers, appointees, and staff from making use of prediction markets if they hold or may earn material non-public information concerning an outcome. The effort was triggered as a result high-profile bet inside Polymarket a place where every trader netted by estimate $400,000 on the President of Venezuelan  Nicolas Maduro's took away just hours it occurred, bringing up solid concerns concerning insider access. Those criticizing argue that allowing officials to trade on events they influence undermining the trust of the public trust and raising perverse incentives. A ban may be helpful to protect the integrity of market and bring down the risk of speculation driven from the insider.

[Judith87403]

Rep. Ritchie Torres and 30 House Democrats brought in to view the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to bar federal officers, appointees, and staff from making use of prediction markets if they hold or may earn material non-public information concerning an outcome. The effort was triggered as a result high-profile bet inside Polymarket a place where every trader netted by estimate $400,000 on the President of Venezuelan  Nicolas Maduro's took away just hours it occurred, bringing up solid concerns concerning insider access. Those criticizing argue that allowing officials to trade on events they influence undermining the trust of the public trust and raising perverse incentives. A ban may be helpful to protect the integrity of market and bring down the risk of speculation driven from the insider.

[SmartGold01]

On the thread, we also discussed if it is insider work or not, but it is obvious that it is insider work. I think it is a good idea to ban such government officials from accessing prediction markets.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/politicians-able-prediction-markets-house-213657314.html

If I must say; there is no need for any government officials to involves themselves with gambling activities, be it prediction market or gambling site or betting site, that dis-speak their integrity as government officials aren't supposed to involved and associates themselves with gambling activities. If I am not mistakenly there is a section in political law/rulership that speaks against their officials involving in gambling.

[avp2306]

A useless law. Officials will place bets through front persons. Actually, this is how it is being done now. All these "prediction markets" are outright scams. There should be no betting on events that are easily manipulated or that have a priori insiders. Because if insider information (about something) exists, then it will definitely be used.

The system will became scam if officials can place bet especially if they made it thru their proxies.

If that situation exist the system may consider as scam.

So they should regulate it so there's no issue will occur. Also I agree that they should not have betting on live events, since there are some entities can manipulate it especially if they have power to do those things that we can't imagine to happen.

[Maslate]

It’s not just about prediction market gambling, they should be banned from gambling altogether. In our country, there’s already a law that prohibits public servants from gambling, and it’s actually stricter than people think. That rule should be enforced properly.

Public servants are supposed to maintain a good image and protect the interests of the people. If they gamble, or worse, use insider information, that’s a clear betrayal of public trust. Their actions end up serving personal interests instead of the people they’re paid to serve.

[rdluffy]

Politicians love to ban and regulate 
I hope they can also ban themselves from making these kinds of bets and predictions when many have privileged information, which would not be fair to other participants and could create a dangerous possibility of manipulating events to win
And in my opinion, this possibility of manipulation can also be quite dangerous

The problem is oversight, since, as everyone has commented, bets can be placed by other people connected to politicians with the information 

[Cointxz]

They shouldn’t be allowed to bet because it’s conflict of interest since they are working for the public so there’s a chance that they will use public money.

In Philippines, Government officials and employees is not allowed to gamble yet many are still breaking this law by having fake ID to still gamble.

This proves how human greediness is dangerous especially to politicians.

[boyptc]

I think that it should have been part of their oath when they sit on their office and work as public servants.

It's unethical if one of them have been caught doing bets with the prediction markets or any casino that they are registered.

But even so with all of these laws that will ban them from using prediction markets. They can always have a way to bypass that using other people.

[Z-tight]

Details about the capture of Maduro must have been extremely discreet, only very few officials would have been in the know. So if it was an inside job, then it must be a very top government official or just luck, but then the timing is something to ponder on.

However, if politicians can use their power to take advantage of the bookies and make money because they are privy to certain info and sometimes even part of the decision making process, then it makes sense to ban their access to it.

[Eternad]

It's unethical if one of them have been caught doing bets with the prediction markets or any casino that they are registered.

But even so with all of these laws that will ban them from using prediction markets. They can always have a way to bypass that using other people.

It’s extreme unethical as being politician for using their information to take advantage on gambling and at the same time they are cheating the casino since they already knew the result of the bet in advance which is already a manipulation.

The fact that they are still discussing about this on the house means they are not prepared on the existence of prediction market that involves politics already.

There might be a chance that many politicians are doing this inside betting.

[Odusko]

On the thread, we also discussed if it is insider work or not, but it is obvious that it is insider work. I think it is a good idea to ban such government officials from accessing prediction markets.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/politicians-able-prediction-markets-house-213657314.html

If I must say; there is no need for any government officials to involves themselves with gambling activities, be it prediction market or gambling site or betting site, that dis-speak their integrity as government officials aren't supposed to involved and associates themselves with gambling activities. If I am not mistakenly there is a section in political law/rulership that speaks against their officials involving in gambling.

We are not talking about integrity as type modal for bot allowing government officials most especially the top ranked officials from gambling, gamblers have no integrity issue's unless for the irresponsible ones, but why government banned officials is because of possibility of using Insider information to get an hedge above others, although this also relates to integrity but on a preventive measure from the government to prevent such from happening regardless of the integrity of the office holder.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I think some countries bans any government officials from participating in gambling or any form of prediction that requires wagering or staking but the US is not among the country that bans government officials from gambling or participating in any prediction related market. If they want to ban them from prediction market, they should also be banned from gambling because their are some casino that offers betting on most events in the prediction market.

[jcojci]

I agree to ban government officials from accessing prediction markets although we don't know what they can do to still access. They have more detail information than public so they will benefits from the prediction and may win much money.

I just think they can uses their people to place a bet. They can predict which will wins and can place much money. They can even hides themselves and pretend that is other people place a bet.

So banning government officials will prevents them to bet. At least, they can't do that publicly.