4-year cycle is not dead

[sleepfirefly]

we have heard of super cycles happening because of etfs and big companies adopting bitcoin but this is why the 4-year cycle is still true albeit with a few changes of market dynamics

“The four-year cycle remains intact. Bitcoin peaked in October at approximately $126,000, consistent with prior cycle timing.”

the reason why the downturn has arrived earlier are because of rising electricity costs and miner capitulation. but the changes for this year are that the market will still grow because of more adoption, on-chain lending, tokenization, and payment infrastructure.

canary capital group says:
“I expect this bear phase to result in a 50–55% peak-to-trough decline. With BTC already down roughly 30%, a gradual decline over the next 6–9 months is reasonable. This trajectory aligns with expected Federal Reserve policy shifts and suggests a cyclical trough forming in mid-to-late summer, followed by recovery.”

[dzungmobile]

You can make mistakes for your decisions on entries and exits within one market cycle as it's impossible to find best entries and exits as well as timing the market accurately. Fortunately, if you plan your investment longer than one market cycle, like two or three cycles, you will reduce your risk of making mistakes while you will be able to achieve both important things.

With entries, you can make many entries that are helpful for your Bitcoin portfolio accumulation over years - two or three market cycles means a lot of years for accumulation.

With exits, you can make different take profit rounds and you will never miss chances of taking profit over 8 or 12 years in this market.

[Darker45]

It may not be fully dead, but it isn't completely the old 4-year cycle anymore. In the first place, there was already an ATH shortly before the last halving. That's not part of the 4-year cycle that we used to know. Also, I'm optimistic that another ATH will be hit within the year. If that happens, then it's another big change in the 4-year cycle.

Other than that, it seems the 4-year cycle is still alive. And the downturn this time around didn't really arrive earlier. If we take a look at the past ATHs, they occur around 1.5 years from the halving. After that, correction follows.

[X-ray]

The only way to know for sure is to find out by waiting, what if bitcoin within the Q1 of this year reach near all time high again?

That basically broke the 4 year cycle and since bitcoin is going back to above $90k. We just gotta wait and see the direction of the market.

4 Year cycle might not be dead for now but it can be dead in the future once the pattern go astray.