4-year cycle is not dead

[sleepfirefly]

we have heard of super cycles happening because of etfs and big companies adopting bitcoin but this is why the 4-year cycle is still true albeit with a few changes of market dynamics

“The four-year cycle remains intact. Bitcoin peaked in October at approximately $126,000, consistent with prior cycle timing.”

the reason why the downturn has arrived earlier are because of rising electricity costs and miner capitulation. but the changes for this year are that the market will still grow because of more adoption, on-chain lending, tokenization, and payment infrastructure.

canary capital group says:
“I expect this bear phase to result in a 50–55% peak-to-trough decline. With BTC already down roughly 30%, a gradual decline over the next 6–9 months is reasonable. This trajectory aligns with expected Federal Reserve policy shifts and suggests a cyclical trough forming in mid-to-late summer, followed by recovery.”

[dzungmobile]

You can make mistakes for your decisions on entries and exits within one market cycle as it's impossible to find best entries and exits as well as timing the market accurately. Fortunately, if you plan your investment longer than one market cycle, like two or three cycles, you will reduce your risk of making mistakes while you will be able to achieve both important things.

With entries, you can make many entries that are helpful for your Bitcoin portfolio accumulation over years - two or three market cycles means a lot of years for accumulation.

With exits, you can make different take profit rounds and you will never miss chances of taking profit over 8 or 12 years in this market.

[Darker45]

It may not be fully dead, but it isn't completely the old 4-year cycle anymore. In the first place, there was already an ATH shortly before the last halving. That's not part of the 4-year cycle that we used to know. Also, I'm optimistic that another ATH will be hit within the year. If that happens, then it's another big change in the 4-year cycle.

Other than that, it seems the 4-year cycle is still alive. And the downturn this time around didn't really arrive earlier. If we take a look at the past ATHs, they occur around 1.5 years from the halving. After that, correction follows.

[X-ray]

The only way to know for sure is to find out by waiting, what if bitcoin within the Q1 of this year reach near all time high again?

That basically broke the 4 year cycle and since bitcoin is going back to above $90k. We just gotta wait and see the direction of the market.

4 Year cycle might not be dead for now but it can be dead in the future once the pattern go astray.

[ColdLava40]

The only way to know for sure is to find out by waiting, what if bitcoin within the Q1 of this year reach near all time high again?

That basically broke the 4 year cycle and since bitcoin is going back to above $90k. We just gotta wait and see the direction of the market.

4 Year cycle might not be dead for now but it can be dead in the future once the pattern go astray.

Bitcoin has been struggling to break above the $100k price. There's bullish signs but the momentum remains weak. The cycle to me is still very much in place and hasn't changed.

And I totally agree with you. The year is still very fresh to know if the cycle will or will not follow through. Right now we just have to sit and watch what price may be doing next.

If we have enough external influences on price that's may just be sufficient enough, then we may be hitting a new ath before the first quarter of this year. That would be an incredible breaking by BTC..

[KiaKia]

Be very careful.

Don't be totally out of Bitcoin because of any predictions, something might change, and to avoid missing out always make sure you have some Bitcoin, you can have a plan to accumulate Bitcoin better when or if it ever drop down to $60,000 but don't always count on it.

A very smart investor will always prepare himself for all possible outcomes, they will have some money set aside for taking advantage of dips and they will have some Bitcoin left in their wallet atleast for sudden unexpected surges.

I don't care about the 4 years cycle, it's deceiving to follow this completely, when you selling don't sell all completely and when you buying always have some dry powder set aside, you will be fine.

[Smack That Ace]

It may not be fully dead, but it isn't completely the old 4-year cycle anymore. In the first place, there was already an ATH shortly before the last halving. That's not part of the 4-year cycle that we used to know. Also, I'm optimistic that another ATH will be hit within the year. If that happens, then it's another big change in the 4-year cycle.

Other than that, it seems the 4-year cycle is still alive. And the downturn this time around didn't really arrive earlier. If we take a look at the past ATHs, they occur around 1.5 years from the halving. After that, correction follows.

I agree that Bitcoin reaching an ATH before the halving somewhat indicates that the market cycle has changed compared to previous cycles. However, I would only acknowledge that the cycle has been completely broken if Bitcoin can reach a new ATH this year, as you predict. Conversely, if that does not happen and bitcoin continues to be dumped this year, this scenario would still fit the logic of the old cycle

Each stage of the market is influenced by different factor, ranging from macroeconomic condition and liquidity to investor behavior. Therefore, it is unrealistic to expect the cycles to repeat mechanically and identically down to the smallest detail. And it would be unfair to hastily conclude that the cycle has completely changed because of a few minor change

[aoluain]

I certainly wouldnt be making any decisions regarding Bitcoin Purchases or sales based on anyones
opinion on whether the Bitcoin cycle is dead or not, nobody can tell for sure if either is the case until
we are well into the year and the market has decided whether its in a Bear or Bull sentiment.


I will continue with my own strategy while not influenced on whether the cycle is over or not.
My vision is long term.

[JamesDaniel90]

Yes Bitcoin peaked at $126k in October which does line up with the 4 year cycle however there was an all time high for Bitcoin before the halving in 2024 , first time that has happened and also last year was a red year overall when it should have been green if you are going by previous cycles, again first time that has happened.

The fact is none of us know for sure whats going to happen this year, the market is currently falling because of Trump and more tariffs and that could last for months but we have QE coming for first time in 4 years and more rate cuts which is usually good for crypto so there is a bullish argument for a good 2026 also.

I am just holding for now, too hard to predict which was this is going to go.

[GreatArkansas]

Be very careful.

Don't be totally out of Bitcoin because of any predictions, something might change, and to avoid missing out always make sure you have some Bitcoin, you can have a plan to accumulate Bitcoin better when or if it ever drop down to $60,000 but don't always count on it.

A very smart investor will always prepare himself for all possible outcomes, they will have some money set aside for taking advantage of dips and they will have some Bitcoin left in their wallet atleast for sudden unexpected surges.

I don't care about the 4 years cycle, it's deceiving to follow this completely, when you selling don't sell all completely and when you buying always have some dry powder set aside, you will be fine.

This makes sense, with the current market right now, it's totally difficult to predict the next action of Bitcoin, just incase we will never drop anymore on $60,000 there are also lot of possibilities we will also not create new all-time high, like we will go sideways below $100,000, like what happened last quarter of year 2024, before we reached all-time high at 2025.

[MArsland]

The 4 year cycle is not dead yet, logically 4 years ahead then save the last year as the year you take profit means the remaining 3 years focus on DCA, as long as finances can consistently fulfill long-term investments for 3 or 3,5 years can be used as a benchmark for you so as not to get too hung up on bad sentiment that tries to shake the bitcoin handle.

Just need to dismiss the issue, whether it is ETF, Adoption, Regulation, US etc., just 3.5 years of investment focus and in year 4 you determine the position to take profits.

[lizarder]

we have heard of super cycles happening because of etfs and big companies adopting bitcoin but this is why the 4-year cycle is still true albeit with a few changes of market dynamics

the reason why the downturn has arrived earlier are because of rising electricity costs and miner capitulation. but the changes for this year are that the market will still grow because of more adoption, on-chain lending, tokenization, and payment infrastructure.  

The cycle will always signal that Bitcoin will reach its peak value when the momentum is met, as it has in previous cycles. I think we will always see that moment, even though there are sometimes some changes in the dynamics of Bitcoin's trajectory in the market. This will be unique because although we can't make accurate predictions, there are always signs that Bitcoin will reach its peak value when the four-year cycle is fulfilled and this is a good signal for people to capitalize on the potential.

I'm not really concerned about the impact of the downturn, as it's bound to happen in the market. It's better to look for opportunities to enter the market to accumulate after making profits in the previous period when the ATH arrives. There are many conditions that could influence Bitcoin to experience a decline or increase and generally this will definitely happen without having to think about it and cause excessive panic.