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Author Topic: 4-year cycle is not dead  (Read 179 times)
BlackHatCoiner
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January 19, 2026, 05:24:43 PM
 #21

Obviously we don't know with certainty if the 4-year cycle will continue, but here are a few reasons why it won't:

  • Bitcoin is no longer a niche asset that is driven primarily by retail speculation.
  • Halving has a diminishing impact; almost all bitcoin have already been mined. There's only something like 5% left.
  • Due to institutional adoption, bitcoin is now influenced by global liquidity & interest rates that don't operate on a 4-year cycle.
  • The next few years are very important in terms of macroeconomics, and there's high uncertainty and various signals that show we're transitioning to a new system.

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January 19, 2026, 07:24:18 PM
 #22

BTC is still staying strong and performing well, this is a sign that a cycle still continues because in the past, everything happened fast like a blink of an eye. While today? It's not like the usual market cycle, it's different and I think something is holding everything that could make a good outcome sooner or later.

While other people saying that we should wait, I think that's more reasonable and less risk, people lose money because of impatience, while other make money when people are fear so always take advantage of everything and assume that you'll make a mistake so DCA if you can. Do everything that can sustain your money, have a plan and a goal that could lead to more profits.

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hd49728
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January 20, 2026, 01:51:28 AM
 #23

BTC is still staying strong and performing well, this is a sign that a cycle still continues because in the past, everything happened fast like a blink of an eye. While today? It's not like the usual market cycle, it's different and I think something is holding everything that could make a good outcome sooner or later.

While other people saying that we should wait, I think that's more reasonable and less risk, people lose money because of impatience, while other make money when people are fear so always take advantage of everything and assume that you'll make a mistake so DCA if you can. Do everything that can sustain your money, have a plan and a goal that could lead to more profits.
Bitcoin is bullish since 2009 and I strongly believe that Bitcoin will continue its bullish trend in the future years. It has already gone through hardest time in its history - the earliest years since Bitcoin Genesis Block in January 2009. Bitcoin is called as "Digital gold" by some people and we don't need to agree with that but let's use gold as an example for Bitcoin.

Gold has been used very long time in human societies and nobody now can imagine that gold will stop its bullish growth in the future. Bitcoin has a very younger existence, age and history compares to gold but Bitcoin definitely has stepped on similar growth pathway like gold.

Anyone tell me this chart is bearish must provide me a lot of convincing reasons.
https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

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January 20, 2026, 07:12:08 AM
 #24

BTC is still staying strong and performing well, this is a sign that a cycle still continues because in the past, everything happened fast like a blink of an eye. While today? It's not like the usual market cycle, it's different and I think something is holding everything that could make a good outcome sooner or later.

While other people saying that we should wait, I think that's more reasonable and less risk, people lose money because of impatience, while other make money when people are fear so always take advantage of everything and assume that you'll make a mistake so DCA if you can. Do everything that can sustain your money, have a plan and a goal that could lead to more profits.
Why people cant just that simply go with the flow? Well, it is understandable that we are trying out to maximize things basing on your entry whenever the market would be on bear cycle and waiting up for the bull run. Anyone wants to have that big profits whenever the market do shoot up into the moon. If we do tend to base up with those previous cycles then we can definitely say that last year was already considered to be the bull run and now we are already on the year on which bearish market starts but it seems the price isnt that moving down that much? What does it mean? No one really knows because this market is totally unpredictable in the first place on which it would the price could make out those movements on which we are that least expecting. There are no patterns and whatever analysis that could be 100% precise.

If ever the price would be shooting back up again above 100k then we would be having those sentiments that this isnt over and we can still see the chance on seeing the bull run on what everyone is eyeing or waiting for but of course set your expectation low because we dont know on whats ahead.

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