Bitcoin Can’t Rise While Gold Rallies—But There’s a Silver Lining

[Alpen]

2025 went down in history as the 'gold supercycle' period. The precious metal saw price increases like it hadn't since 1979. Bitcoin ended the year down, even though it made a new high. Gold, however, set new all-time highs 50 times over the year.

This pushed crypto investors to move $19 billion out of crypto and into gold in early October, when the US and China traded new tariff threats. Since then, these capital shifts have become a systematic pattern every time macro risks spike. Yesterday's sell-off is proof: the Greenland tensions wiped 4% off Bitcoin's market cap, while gold hit yet another record.



Analysts at J.P. Morgan forecast that the price of gold will keep rising in 2026 and 2027, reaching $5,400. They believe investors will increase their allocation to the precious metal from 2.8% to 4–5% of their portfolios.

This capital 'suction effect' over the next two years will create a liquidity deficit for Bitcoin and altcoins. Cryptocurrencies likely won't be able to set new highs during this time, especially with the Fed's tight monetary policy.

So, what should crypto investors do? Trade gold tokens. Their market cap has nearly tripled in a year, according to Coinmarketcap. According to analysts at the crypto gateway Cryptomus, gold tokens on the crypto market are even starting to be used for business-to-business settlements. So, the crypto market offers a way to replace the dollar in retail trade and savings, not just with Bitcoin and altcoins, but with gold too.

[AVE5]

This pushed crypto investors to move $19 billion out of crypto and into gold in early October, when the US and China traded new tariff threats. Since then, these capital shifts have become a systematic pattern every time macro risks spike. Yesterday's sell-off is proof: the Greenland tensions wiped 4% off Bitcoin's market cap, while gold hit yet another record.

If you intended to invest on bitcoin simply because you believe bitcoin is meant to compete with gold or other assets, the. You're wrong.
Bitcoin investment is a digital asset to store values. Maybe when you see the gold market achieving more price increase than Bitcoin, that's just for the term, there're also certain seasons investors admires the bitcoin market the gold market.
Don't forget bitcoin met it Ath at the beginning of the last quarter of 2025 which according to it past performances the $126,000 Ath was called for the beginning points of the bull that'd had taken us above what we got if not for the massive sales of traders out of taking profits.
It could be mystery but I also don't think bitcoin could do better than gold in the longer time but bitcoin will always hold the most profitable and reliable digital currency like gold is to precious metals and stock market.

[Odohu]

I think this is a coincidence or should I say our latest reality because this correlation was not there in the past. It is expected if we have to be honest with ourselves because Bitcoin have gained the attention of institutional investors hence it has gotten to the point where investors contemplate moving money there when there is uncertainty in the currency and stock market. Before, when there is uncertainty in the bond market which affects the currencies, investors move money to gold and stock but with Bitcoin in the picture as a great alternative,  we should expect it to work negative correlation to gold.

[Alpen]

If you intended to invest on bitcoin simply because you believe bitcoin is meant to compete with gold or other assets, the. You're wrong.
Bitcoin investment is a digital asset to store values. Maybe when you see the gold market achieving more price increase than Bitcoin, that's just for the term, there're also certain seasons investors admires the bitcoin market the gold market.
Don't forget bitcoin met it Ath at the beginning of the last quarter of 2025 which according to it past performances the $126,000 Ath was called for the beginning points of the bull that'd had taken us above what we got if not for the massive sales of traders out of taking profits.
It could be mystery but I also don't think bitcoin could do better than gold in the longer time but bitcoin will always hold the most profitable and reliable digital currency like gold is to precious metals and stock market.

Where exactly do you see Bitcoin’s "reliability"? With gold, it’s straightforward: exploration, extraction, and market sales. Bitcoin, however, is entirely dependent on miners whose profits get squeezed with every halving.

Furthermore, mining farms are massive energy consumers. Once electricity becomes a scarce resource due to the rapid expansion of AI, Bitcoin will be priced out. That will be the end of it.

[Alpen]

I think this is a coincidence or should I say our latest reality because this correlation was not there in the past. It is expected if we have to be honest with ourselves because Bitcoin have gained the attention of institutional investors hence it has gotten to the point where investors contemplate moving money there when there is uncertainty in the currency and stock market. Before, when there is uncertainty in the bond market which affects the currencies, investors move money to gold and stock but with Bitcoin in the picture as a great alternative,  we should expect it to work negative correlation to gold.

Investors are increasingly concerned about Bitcoin’s resilience to quantum attacks. The CEO of UBS raised this very issue at Davos and didn’t receive a clear answer. Since crypto developers have yet to provide a solid roadmap for protection, even Coinbase has acknowledged the severity of the threat by forming its own Quantum Advisory Board.

[GreatArkansas]

This pushed crypto investors to move $19 billion out of crypto and into gold in early October, when the US and China traded new tariff threats. Since then, these capital shifts have become a systematic pattern every time macro risks spike. Yesterday's sell-off is proof: the Greenland tensions wiped 4% off Bitcoin's market cap, while gold hit yet another record.

If you intended to invest on bitcoin simply because you believe bitcoin is meant to compete with gold or other assets, the. You're wrong.
Bitcoin investment is a digital asset to store values. Maybe when you see the gold market achieving more price increase than Bitcoin, that's just for the term, there're also certain seasons investors admires the bitcoin market the gold market.
Don't forget bitcoin met it Ath at the beginning of the last quarter of 2025 which according to it past performances the $126,000 Ath was called for the beginning points of the bull that'd had taken us above what we got if not for the massive sales of traders out of taking profits.
It could be mystery but I also don't think bitcoin could do better than gold in the longer time but bitcoin will always hold the most profitable and reliable digital currency like gold is to precious metals and stock market.

Yeah, this makes sense. Trading and investing are totally different. And from OP, it's really confusing, he seems to mean "trade" gold, not "invest".
Plu,s I don't agree with OP about tension with Greenland causing the recent dump on Bitcoin as for me, these geopolitical issues must not relate to Bitcoin at all, bearish or bullish.

[Iranus]

Plu,s I don't agree with OP about tension with Greenland causing the recent dump on Bitcoin as for me, these geopolitical issues must not relate to Bitcoin at all, bearish or bullish.

I do not know if it was another coincidence that Trump announced tariff on 8 European countries because of Greenland, but the price of bitcoin dropped immediately then. Afterwards, he announced the tax postponement and Trump's statements about crypto at Davos, bitcoin increased slightly at that time. Is this really just another coincidence?

Geopolitics have nothing to do with bitcoin but they directly impact the economy and investor psychology. Meanwhile, investors and bitcoin are only a small part of the economy. It would be incorrect to say that bitcoin will not be affected by geopolitic and macroeconomics.

[shinratensei_]

What we need is simply a tokenized gold RWA managed by reputed and trusted company to create the reserve and make it tradable in the blockchain.
Only then, we can avoid capital suction by allowing people to trade freely between gold and cryptocurrency. If we really want to avoid that 2 year capital suction effect as mentioned.

[Yaunfitda]

If you intended to invest on bitcoin simply because you believe bitcoin is meant to compete with gold or other assets, the. You're wrong.
Bitcoin investment is a digital asset to store values. Maybe when you see the gold market achieving more price increase than Bitcoin, that's just for the term, there're also certain seasons investors admires the bitcoin market the gold market.
Don't forget bitcoin met it Ath at the beginning of the last quarter of 2025 which according to it past performances the $126,000 Ath was called for the beginning points of the bull that'd had taken us above what we got if not for the massive sales of traders out of taking profits.
It could be mystery but I also don't think bitcoin could do better than gold in the longer time but bitcoin will always hold the most profitable and reliable digital currency like gold is to precious metals and stock market.

Where exactly do you see Bitcoin’s "reliability"? With gold, it’s straightforward: exploration, extraction, and market sales. Bitcoin, however, is entirely dependent on miners whose profits get squeezed with every halving.

Furthermore, mining farms are massive energy consumers. Once electricity becomes a scarce resource due to the rapid expansion of AI, Bitcoin will be priced out. That will be the end of it.

End of what? Bitcoin? I don't think that we will see the demise of Bitcoin, it is still been seen at medium of exchange or even a store of value like Gold. The thing with Bitcoin is that it's risky and not everyone is willing to take that as compare to Gold or any other asset for that matter. As for your argument about the massive electricity needed or even the environmental effect, it was been debunked already. It just so happen that Gold is really making a good run in the last couple of years even surpassing Bitcoin. But I don't think that it will result to the demise of Bitcoin itself. Just remember that we have a 4 year cycle, so there will be bull runs again and we just don't know what big it will be in the future.

[lizarder]

This capital 'suction effect' over the next two years will create a liquidity deficit for Bitcoin and altcoins. Cryptocurrencies likely won't be able to set new highs during this time, especially with the Fed's tight monetary policy.

So, what should crypto investors do? Trade gold tokens. Their market cap has nearly tripled in a year, according to Coinmarketcap. According to analysts at the crypto gateway Cryptomus, gold tokens on the crypto market are even starting to be used for business-to-business settlements. So, the crypto market offers a way to replace the dollar in retail trade and savings, not just with Bitcoin and altcoins, but with gold too.

This should improve so that there are many alternatives available to people and perhaps the dollar's dominance in trading will spark a new era that is much more transparent and easier for anyone to use. The gold market capitalization is indeed much larger than that of crypto assets, but we can see this as a necessity, including how to condense existing potential to achieve something better than these alternatives. The transfer of assets held by people in this market happens all the time and people will even seek safe assets to protect their money.

I see this issue as a positive, as it offers a multitude of options available to anyone. The more alternatives available, the more people will be able to achieve growth in their investment systems, building assets deemed to have future potential. This is what we want to see, compared to the dominance of a single currency that has always been under pressure from the powerful.

[Danica22]

I think this is a coincidence or should I say our latest reality because this correlation was not there in the past. It is expected if we have to be honest with ourselves because Bitcoin have gained the attention of institutional investors hence it has gotten to the point where investors contemplate moving money there when there is uncertainty in the currency and stock market. Before, when there is uncertainty in the bond market which affects the currencies, investors move money to gold and stock but with Bitcoin in the picture as a great alternative,  we should expect it to work negative correlation to gold.

Investors are increasingly concerned about Bitcoin’s resilience to quantum attacks. The CEO of UBS raised this very issue at Davos and didn’t receive a clear answer. Since crypto developers have yet to provide a solid roadmap for protection, even Coinbase has acknowledged the severity of the threat by forming its own Quantum Advisory Board.

Concerns about quantum computers have been raised and discussed for the past decade, they are nothing new. But as you can see, nothing has happened so far

I'm not saying that the risks of quantum computing do not exist. But if you research further, you will see that if it can threaten Bitcoin, government and bank security systems will also face risks, not just Bitcoin itself

Furthermore, some studies suggest it will take several more decades before QT can truly threaten Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the developers are not standing still either, they're still working hard to find a solution. So do not worry too much and there is no need to exaggerate them.