If the war breaks out in Europe, what happens to Bitcoin?

[pooya87]

Bitcoin is proven to be a safe haven that investors buy for long term storage, but unfortunately in the short term we've seen it react negatively to global tensions. The recent drop was exactly because of that, people just tend to panic sell at times like that which brings the price down.

So if the ongoing war in Europe expands more than this, we may see another drop in bitcoin but only in short term (like 2022). Then the price would recover and continue going up even though that war continues (like from 2022 till 2026 where price kept going up despite the ongoing proxy war between NATO and Russia).

Why a lot of people still panic sell their bitcoin in any given economic-cum-geopolicial tension is due to the fact that they still conceive bitcoin for a short term risk-on-asset where a market reaction to global tension leading to price decline causes fear in them than flashes of opportunity to buy bitcoin at a reduced price value just as the long term investor minded bitcoiner would think it.

The market would always stabilise after a short response, a thing of common sense to note for those that have being here for long with lots of experience. For instance, let view the market as humans who for sure would react with fear upon a rising conflict and wars and in the course of time adapt to the situation to survive. Bitcoin market price always has bounce up in performance in the long term for sure.

That's because there are still so many people who categorize bitcoin as a "high risk investment" and their reason is its volatility too so we can't really blame them that much.

But I also have another theory about another contributing factor to the recent bitcoin's short term drops and that has to do with the MASSIVE gold price rise to $5500.

My theory is that we might have developed a similar relationship between gold and bitcoin as we always had between bitcoin and altcoins. We know traders have a limited amount of money they use for day trading and they want to maximize their profit. We've seen this in the crypto market at times when bitcoin suddenly goes up and the day traders dump their altcoins to be able to trade bitcoin and make profit in the bitcoin-fiat market.
I think the recent drops look somewhat similar to that:


The chain of events is like this: the world continues dedollarisation and dollar tanks (the red line is dollar index). As they dump the dollar, it is replaced by gold which is why the price is shooting up (the yellow line is gold price). But when it is soaring like this, it attracts traders too. Traders who have a finite amount of capital they need to pull out other markets such as bitcoin (the green line is bitcoin price) to bring to gold market.

Although the 3 points I color coded on the chart above is not enough data to issue a certain verdict but I think this theory is worth pondering about...

P.S. To attach some geopolitical news to this little chart I should mention that it is interesting that the last DXY dump and gold rise to above $5k-$5.5k takes place between January 27 and 29 which are the 3 days Iran simply held a teeny tiny military drill in the Strait of Hormuz (aka the only entry into the Persian Gulf) in response to US regime's aggression on Twitter and basically half shut it off for 3 days...

[davis196]

I always wondered if the threat from US such as taking Greenland member of NATO by another NATO country will break Europe in pieces and it will definetely shake the markets, what are the bets? I know a lot people say best investment will be gold, but you wont be able to escape country with golden bars possibly but with crypto you can just with hardware wallet or software wallet. I am considering to trade these markets either long gold short term but long term long Bitcoin what is your take?

Trump doesn't have the balls to invade Greenland, because this will cause the markets to panic and everything will crash.
I don't believe that Trump is that dumb. Such speculations(USA invading Greenland and NATO getting divided) are simply too stupid to be discussed. Escape the country with gold bars? What the hell are you talking about? Who is going to escape the country? There won't be any major war between the USA and any NATO allies, so there's no need for anyone to escape with any gold bars in his backpack.
If the USA ever starts a war against Europe, crypto will collapse just like every other financial asset.

[Curious T]

but they prefer to sell their bitcoin in such time. Which means bitcoin might fall for a short period of time but the price will later increase as usual.

It actually depends on how serious the war is. If it's just between two countries, then it might be a short period, but if it's an all-out war between most of Europe, I don't think it will be a short period of time. When Bitcoin's price dropped from around forty thousand in February of 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, it took another two years before it went to forty thousand again.  If a war breaks out in Europe, the price might drop for longer than that.

Funny enough, the price might do the opposite. With the breakout of a war, currencies will just keep crashing, and that may push people to look for other means to store their wealth. Gold is an obvious choice, but Bitcoin might also be a choice.

[8rch7]

Trump doesn't have the balls to invade Greenland, because this will cause the markets to panic and everything will crash.
I don't believe that Trump is that dumb. Such speculations(USA invading Greenland and NATO getting divided) are simply too stupid to be discussed. Escape the country with gold bars? What the hell are you talking about? Who is going to escape the country? There won't be any major war between the USA and any NATO allies, so there's no need for anyone to escape with any gold bars in his backpack.
If the USA ever starts a war against Europe, crypto will collapse just like every other financial asset.

Its balance war if United State start the war for Greenland behind has many top Europe countries from Germany, England and Norway will fight United State. I can't imagine how crash of bitcoin price during that war start and United State want to go back exactly for Donald Trump has announced will fight for Greenland, right now market easily get panic just bit issues publishing by United State or the top Europe countries and NATO release are ready for fight with US.
Before this conflict get solution I believe cryptocurrency market easily get panic and many people worry for awhile to invest in bitcoin, most of them prepare waiting for bitcoin and altcoin reach the lower price if won't get moment after entering market suddenly crash due US and NATO fight for Greenland.

[pooya87]

Trump doesn't have the balls to invade Greenland, because this will cause the markets to panic and everything will crash.
I don't believe that Trump is that dumb. Such speculations(USA invading Greenland and NATO getting divided) are simply too stupid to be discussed. Escape the country with gold bars? What the hell are you talking about? Who is going to escape the country? There won't be any major war between the USA and any NATO allies, so there's no need for anyone to escape with any gold bars in his backpack.
If the USA ever starts a war against Europe, crypto will collapse just like every other financial asset.

It has nothing to do with having "balls" or even wanting to invade. US regime is too fragile to go to any major wars anyway. This is all about putting pressure on European slaves of the regime (colonies of the colony!) to obey the orders that come from Washington better and quicker.

The US regime's demands and orders are that the Europeans must hand over any resources they have to US, their money too. And their young must go to Eastern front to be killed by the regime as its proxies.

Each time Europeans disobey these orders or hesitate to follow them, you'll see these types of pressure increase. US regime will get the resources in Greenland one way or another but it won't be through war.

P.S. The funny part of all this is that the pedophile POTUS is taking orders himself from the Zionists
Just recently when he got too scared to obey the orders Zionists had given him to attack Iran because he still sees nightmares of what Iran did to US military back in June last year; the Zionists immediately published the evidence of his involvement in raping and murdering children.

[goldkingcoiner]

I always wondered if the threat from US such as taking Greenland member of NATO by another NATO country will break Europe in pieces and it will definetely shake the markets, what are the bets? I know a lot people say best investment will be gold, but you wont be able to escape country with golden bars possibly but with crypto you can just with hardware wallet or software wallet. I am considering to trade these markets either long gold short term but long term long Bitcoin what is your take?

People are storing their money into gold and silver right now, especially because of geopolitical tensions.

You cannot carry around bars of gold in the airport and some paper certificate saying you own x amount of gold does nothing if the country which issued it no longer exists or is under extreme conditions which make you actually getting to your gold an impossible task.

If war were to start, which I hope does not happen and most likely will not happen.
Then I believe people would soon start re-investing into Bitcoin.

The internet is harder to take down than an entire country.

[MusaPk]

It has nothing to do with having "balls" or even wanting to invade. US regime is too fragile to go to any major wars anyway. This is all about putting pressure on European slaves of the regime (colonies of the colony!) to obey the orders that come from Washington better and quicker.

The US regime's demands and orders are that the Europeans must hand over any resources they have to US, their money too. And their young must go to Eastern front to be killed by the regime as its proxies.

Each time Europeans disobey these orders or hesitate to follow them, you'll see these types of pressure increase. US regime will get the resources in Greenland one way or another but it won't be through war.

P.S. The funny part of all this is that the pedophile POTUS is taking orders himself from the Zionists
Just recently when he got too scared to obey the orders Zionists had given him to attack Iran because he still sees nightmares of what Iran did to US military back in June last year; the Zionists immediately published the evidence of his involvement in raping and murdering children.

The EU on US pressure, cut gas import from Russia. US after abandoning Ukraine and EU in war against Russia is now threatening EU of 100% tariff if Greenland not handed over. Its a clear message to the world that never rely on US friendship. EU always stood with US in almost every matter including the recent 2 years massacre carried out by Israel in Gaza but US showed no sympathy for EU.

Iran has shown its strength last year. US is now reluctant to attack Iran because Iran has said that in case it was attacked by US then in response Iran will attack US military bases in the area. There is a saying that US can spare its enemy but never his friend. Those countries who stood firmly against US are still safe and living with pride.
   
 

[SOKO-DEKE]

If war breaks out in Europe, what will happen is still uncertain. What I mean is that the price of Bitcoin will crash, but I believe that with time it will rise again.The reason the price of Bitcoin will crash is because Europe will experience a bad economy. People will face a lot of challenges, and many will not be able to go to the office or run other businesses. Almost every company will be shut down.

If people do not work, they will not be able to buy more Bitcoin, but instead they will sell. However, it will not be only Bitcoin that falls; even gold and other investments will also crash.So let us not focus only on Bitcoin falling. I have some confidence that Bitcoin will crash only to a certain level, because it is not only Europe that is holding Bitcoin.

[STT]

It all depends if Bitcoin is useful in that changed situation.  Normally war means deflation and a loss of value in luxury goods for example, various things not needed or useful.
   The norm would be a sharp rise in Dollar and a move to central security, I still expect that to some extent even in these modern times hence BTC would be challenged but imo likely still above 50k for the duration.

   There are always wars of course, its only the extent to which they spread and interfere with more distant populations and economies, world war is rare thankfully.

[ScamViruS]

~~~

I know that anything can happen, but I think a war between the US and the EU is unlikely. They may disagree and be internally divided on a number of issues, including Greenland. But it will not be serious enough to lead to armed conflict. They will not be foolish enough to tear each other apart, allowing their real rivals, Russia and China, to reap the benefits

Comparing what the US did to Venezuela and assuming they would do the same to Greenland is a mistake, because Venezuela is an ally of China.

It is true that there may be differences of opinion between the US and the EU at the present time, but at the end of the day, it is unlikely that they will go to war. But Donald Trump's insulting comments about EU leaders are making the situation worse. Donald Trump has completely destabilized geopolitics, creating a situation that could lead to conflict even with America's longtime allies. Therefore, we hope that the bad situation that is developing between the US and the EU will be resolved quickly through negotiations and that the situation will be calmed by rejecting Trump's immoral demands.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

I always wondered if the threat from US such as taking Greenland member of NATO by another NATO country will break Europe in pieces and it will definetely shake the markets, what are the bets? I know a lot people say best investment will be gold, but you wont be able to escape country with golden bars possibly but with crypto you can just with hardware wallet or software wallet. I am considering to trade these markets either long gold short term but long term long Bitcoin what is your take?

You can already see how both of this markets are performing even without a war, now imagine if a war is to break out..
Negative things like this aren't things I like to discuss about especially when it's something that negatively affects the peace in the world, but I understand that we just can't help but talk about things like this from time to time..

War doesn't help any body, it doesn't help the economy, but rather it destroys what both countries involved may have spent several decades and generations building.
It doesn't have help the general market either, whether it be the gold or bitcoin market, everything will feel the heat..
As investors, the last thing we should ever be thinking or imagining is a war breaking out in major countries, especially if we are long term investors.

[fuguebtc]

I know that anything can happen, but I think a war between the US and the EU is unlikely. They may disagree and be internally divided on a number of issues, including Greenland. But it will not be serious enough to lead to armed conflict. They will not be foolish enough to tear each other apart, allowing their real rivals, Russia and China, to reap the benefits

Comparing what the US did to Venezuela and assuming they would do the same to Greenland is a mistake, because Venezuela is an ally of China.

It is true that there may be differences of opinion between the US and the EU at the present time, but at the end of the day, it is unlikely that they will go to war. But Donald Trump's insulting comments about EU leaders are making the situation worse. Donald Trump has completely destabilized geopolitics, creating a situation that could lead to conflict even with America's longtime allies. Therefore, we hope that the bad situation that is developing between the US and the EU will be resolved quickly through negotiations and that the situation will be calmed by rejecting Trump's immoral demands.

I'm not underestimating the EU, but the truth is they do not have any card to play against the US. For decades, they became so dependent on the US and lulled into complacency by that security umbrella that they nearly lost the ability to defend themselves. Therefore, if the US escalates the situation, the EU will have no choice but to make concession, rather than engage in a direct confrontation. As I said, at that time, the EU had to confront not only the US but also Russia and China

They are well aware of the situation, so a war scenario between the US and the EU will never happen.

[pooya87]

Iran has shown its strength last year. US is now reluctant to attack Iran because Iran has said that in case it was attacked by US then in response Iran will attack US military bases in the area.

From what has come out over the past couple of days, that situation is so much more complicated than that.

We already know that Trump aka the pedophile POTUS is under a lot of pressure from the Zionists whose agent Epstein gathered loads of evidence from all the atrocious crimes he has done to kids for many years. Rape is the smallest crime he's committed!
Obviously the Zionists' demand is for US to fight Iran as their proxy. But his generals know the outcome of that war very well, which is why the idiots came up with a plan! That was to tell Iran to allow them to carry out a "symbolic" attack on Iran so that the pervert can get the Zionists off his back.

That was obviously idiotic because Iran doesn't recognize silly things as "symbolic attacks". So the response he got (through his middle men, Egypt, Turkey and Qatar) was that any kind of attack is seen as an act war and Iran will respond harshly and the response will be on a very large scale that would include the entire region.
The others echoed this warning as well. For example Armed Forces of Yemen announced that in case of any attack on Iran, they'll sink all American ships.
Same response came out from Iraq, Lebanon and other places expanding the warning to the entire region already.

This is why there are reports of some of these Arab dictators on south of Persian Gulf (like the ones in Kuwait) have already ran away (flown out to a far away destination)...

What's interesting is that when Iran responded so harshly to that silly US regime's suggestion and Trump got scared and backed off, the Zionists had to up their game which is exactly when they published thousands of pages of evidence, confessions and victims' statements naming both Donald Trump and Elon Musk specifically. And they crimes they've committed are just horrifying.

BTW I still don't think this leads to any actual war now but we'll eventually have to fight and destroy the regime's military to end its murderous adventures very soon. To put simply that war is inevitable. But to go back to the title of this topic, the moment that war breaks out (which is going to be the entire West Asia and then go into the US soil) we will see Russia take advantage of the devastation of NATO at the hands of Iran and will invade Europe. Same with China that would literally swallow Taiwan and possibly even Japan shortly after.

[ancafe]

I'm not underestimating the EU, but the truth is they do not have any card to play against the US. For decades, they became so dependent on the US and lulled into complacency by that security umbrella that they nearly lost the ability to defend themselves. Therefore, if the US escalates the situation, the EU will have no choice but to make concession, rather than engage in a direct confrontation. As I said, at that time, the EU had to confront not only the US but also Russia and China

They are well aware of the situation, so a war scenario between the US and the EU will never happen.

There are 27 countries that are members of the European Union in general and none of them can match the military power of the United States or any other policy that can strengthen their power.Germany may have a strong military, but the United States is still far superior, so I doubt they would dare risk a direct confrontation. So far the countries I mentioned don't pose a threat to the United States, so it's unlikely the United States itself would exert pressure. Instead they've formed special blocs on cooperation policies to further enhance their influence structure.

The real threat likely comes from China or Russia as both countries are difficult to conquer and the United States itself would likely be reluctant to openly attack due to their military might and sophisticated military equipment. Furthermore China currently wields significant influence in the global economy and its ever-developing technology makes it even more powerful. If this war were to occur, it would likely have a significant impact on Bitcoin's trajectory and could even influence policies that could impact this asset.