I'm curious, since you are in the trading discussion section.
From what OP shared, about the crypto price snapshot, as a trader, how will you make money from this? Because for sure, if you are a trader, most probably you will not hold your coins you trade this very long.
Very good question! It deserved a good answer.
I value past opportunities so high that I am ready to give one nowadays opportunity if I will get two past opportunities in return
History rhymes... it is reflected in my (trader) name as well: Jaanus (two faces looking in opposite direction: past and future) and Raim (Estonia version from the English word "rhyme").
History do not exactly repeat itself - every event (and opportunity) in the future is in some aspect different from the past. Therefore it is not enough to have ears and eyes, some mind is needed as well. You can not extrapolate past into the future, but you can use many aspects of historical opportunities to use and find opportunities today.
For example, lets assume that you discovered in 20 January, 2016 that the crypto market is heavily undervalued and its equilibrium market cap would be ca 100x higher (not 7 billion USD but 700 billion USD just as the biggest market cap company of this time). What was your biggest obstacles? 1) You found that some months earlier the cryptos were even more undervalued therefore you already had missed this opportunity in some extent. 2)You do not know may-be the undervaluation will increases temporarily even more during next months or even years: as Keynes had said "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". 3)You do not know the
exact size of this undervaluation, therefore you do not know when exactly is the best time to sell.
These three obstacles are timeless, you meet them again and again and again. The basic challenge is that though it is relatively easy to measure the extent of the undervaluation or overvaluation approximately (in the orders of magnitude), it is not possible to measure it in exact numbers (in exact percentages) - the number of important variables is too great for that! Therefore the number of opportunities you are able to detect is relatively small and the few ones you had detected need very careful handling.
Going back to 20 January 2016, you had to start buying instantly but only step by step to reduce risk that undervaluation goes even wider. No loans, no leverage. Doing so, you was able to invest some percentage (lets say 30%) of your funds before the price started to increase rapidly. Then your life was easy until about the May 2017 when the undervaluation was decreased by almost one order of magnitude (cryptos market cap was then 70 billion USD) and ONLY one order of magnitude was left in accordance with your calculations. That meant that the perfect time for selling is not far... but how far? Again, it was impossible to say. The only way was to start to sell step by step, starting with 1% of your cryptos value and going slowly higher as the undervaluation vanished even more. For the end of 2017 you had sold the quite large percentage of your cryptos (lets say 80%) because this price increases was great and met your target (700 billion USD) at the end of this bull run. 20% remained in the crypto for many years until the next threat of overvaluation in 2021.
Does it seem useful in 2026?
Which are the strongly, extremely strongly undervalued/overvalued assets now and which will probably be tomorrow? If you are like 99%, you answer that there are no strongly mispriced assets today, all great opportunities were in the past. They have always answered so
