Is it possible to arbitrage on Polymarket? Who has experience to share?

[yumaryumar]

Hey everyone,

I’ve been looking into Polymarket lately and I’m curious about arbitrage opportunities on the platform. Has anyone here tried arbitraging on Polymarket markets? If so, what strategies did you use, and was it profitable after fees and slippage?

I’m interested in real experiences

[Oshosondy]

Yes, arbitrage trading is possible on Polymarket. Market manipulation is also possible there.

[Cryptomultiplier]

The Polymarket is still something new for many of us old time gamblers in many sense, even though we may have an idea or knowledge on how the market operates, it still takes gut and the determination for change to enter the Polymarket and be successful.

I would say the reality check depends on the fees vs the slippage such a platform offers in order to know how profitable you can be and certainly, with the age of bots integration being a big thing on the market, it is a challenge to beat bots to the game outrightly.

The strategy I can muster from research, is to look for gaps between related markets like a winner market vs a margin of victory, because it still offers those traders who trade manually an edge of using their reasoning faculty as compared to using bots that simply match the prices before delving in for some advantage of profit if at all.

[henry_of_skalitz]

It's the same speculation market, just a bigger and established one.

And, sure thing, manipulations can and happen.. We just won't know about em

Never tried going there myself, but I see lots of people taking interest in it lately.

[DeeppRockk]

Hey everyone,I've been looking into Polymarket lately and I'm curious about arbitrage opportunities on the platform. Has anyone here tried arbitraging on Polymarket markets? If so, what strategies did you use, and was it profitable after fees and slippage?I'm interested in real experiences

Arbitrage on these prediction markets isn't some magic money printer, its just like finding value in sports betting but the opponent is different. youre not just trying to beat the market maker, youre up against bots that execute faster than you can blink.
The simple arbs, where 'Yes' and 'No' shares dont add up to $1.00, are gone in milliseconds.

The real juice is in the less efficient corners of the market. its like comparing a sharp NFL line to a Latvian basketball league line. The NFL line is razor-thin, but you might find some fat on the Latvian line if you know where to look.

Same thing here. An arb on the 'Will BTC hit 100k?' market is going to be hyper-competitive.
But an arb on some obscure market about a corporate board vote that just got announced? thats where you might find an edge, but you have to be damn fast.

The real vig is the fees and slippage. It kills your profit.

It looks like youre locking in a 1% profit, but after Polygon gas fees to approve and execute, plus Polymarket's fee, and the price moving slightly as you fill your order... that 1% turns into a 0.5% loss in a hurry. its a game of basis points, so you need serious capital to make it worthwhile...

youre not gonna turn $100 into $1000 doing this... but you can try it out

[joeperry]

I actually curious about this too, I'm not really familiar how things work especially in technical terms but I've seen there's some kind of delays in placing bet and also some visual bugs when I am playing on it. Though there's API and builders and I think through it you'd be able to arbitrage, but just like what @Oshosondy say, market manipulations is also one of the things we need to watch out for. Now I'm more curious, is there an incident before of market manipulation in Polymarket or other things where players could take advantage of the market? I've been playing on Polymarket for a while now and maybe there's some things that I didn't know.

[melinoe]

Yes, arbitrage is possible, but it’s tricky. Fees, slippage, and bot activity can eat into profits. Manual traders can try spotting price gaps between related markets (like “winner” vs “margin of victory”) to gain an edge, but it takes timing, research, and quick execution.

If you want, I can draft a step-by-step beginner-friendly guide for Polymarket arbitrage based on what the forum discussion suggests. Do you want me to do that?

Bro, at least get rid of the last part

[Xylber]

It is possible. There are bots made in python that even arbitrage the very same market, by buying both sides when the sum between them is less than 1:

For example, if "Will Trump wear a hat before January?" cost is 0.80 for YES and 0.19 for NO, the bot buys both sides. Whatever the outcome, you won 1.00 while you paid 0.99 total.



Anyway, unless you know any kind of programming language, you can't compete with bots. Bots scan every arbitrage opportunity in miliseconds both in Polymarket and in Kalshi, and make all the transactions much faster than any human.
Also, Polymarket has a problem with cheating, every outcome is proposed by users and voted by users, so I see cases were a market resolved incorrectly just because people who put a lot of money lost and voted as they have won.

[Judith87403]

Poly market provides opportunities that are interested for arbitrage, mostly since the platform owns markets for prediction with fluctuating odds. A common strategy or method is to exploit diversity in pricing between markets, more especially if the results correlate with diverse predictions. Anyways, to gain profits relys on fees, slippage, and liquidity. One has to act real quick to avoid splippay, mostly with bigger positions, as liquidity has tendency of being an issue. Fees are equally a factor–though they are not very high, they add up over trade multiple times. It is important to watch the market closely and get understanding of the dynamics, yet with some skill, you will make a profit. Only stay aware that the bet is significant, the more difficult it will get to avoid slippage.

[melinoe]

-snip-



Anyway, unless you know any kind of programming language, you can't compete with bots. Bots scan every arbitrage opportunity in miliseconds both in Polymarket and in Kalshi, and make all the transactions much faster than any human.
Also, Polymarket has a problem with cheating, every outcome is proposed by users and voted by users, so I see cases were a market resolved incorrectly just because people who put a lot of money lost and voted as they have won.

I wonder how this system works on Poly.. I heard something about UMA tokens and the Oracle taking the decision in such cases, but I can't be sure as of now.

[Hispo]

It is possible and there are probably thousands of bots running on Polymarket getting as make cents as possible automatically from every market they can make a profit out of.

Even if it is possible, a normal person cannot make a profit out of it, because it requires very sophisticate bots and a huge capital for operations to be even considered profitable and compensate fees slipage, etc.

Unless you have serious experience with bot programming and several hundreds of thousands of dollars in USDC, I would not even bother to look at it as a source of serious income.

[Xylber]

-snip-



Anyway, unless you know any kind of programming language, you can't compete with bots. Bots scan every arbitrage opportunity in miliseconds both in Polymarket and in Kalshi, and make all the transactions much faster than any human.
Also, Polymarket has a problem with cheating, every outcome is proposed by users and voted by users, so I see cases were a market resolved incorrectly just because people who put a lot of money lost and voted as they have won.

I wonder how this system works on Poly.. I heard something about UMA tokens and the Oracle taking the decision in such cases, but I can't be sure as of now.

Sadly I don't understand it 100%.
I know that any user can propose a solution by paying around 700usdc. After 2hours , the market is resolved with that solution, and the user receives his 700usd back and a prize of 5usd.
But in that 2 hours windows, another user can also pay 700usd to contradict the first guy.

When two guys provide a contradicting solution, the community can vote. And here comes the part I don't understand, because people can vote directly in the Oracle website by holding tokens, but there is also some kind of voting or clarification on their Discord channel.

More info:

Code:

https://legacy-docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-+-uma

[Haunebu]

It is definitely possible within polymarket itself, but you will compete with a shitton of bots and there is the fee issue that others pointed out above. Instead, a better way to arb with polymarket is to live arb between it and a soft sportsbook like Stake etc.

Live arbing isn't easy either, but it's easier than competing with bots. Also, you will eventually get limited on soft sportsbooks to small amounts in order to prevent arbing.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Hey everyone,

I’ve been looking into Polymarket lately and I’m curious about arbitrage opportunities on the platform. Has anyone here tried arbitraging on Polymarket markets? If so, what strategies did you use, and was it profitable after fees and slippage?

I’m interested in real experiences

Like every one have said, arbitrage betting is possible on polymarket but I do not know the process or strategy since I've never tried it, I don't even have an account on that platform but I know that abitrage is possible due to the fact that I have a friend who is a regular on the platform, I've over-heard him arguing with his fellow co-gamblers who I believe were also using same polymarket about the profitability of arbitrage opportunities on polymarket, he was telling them that it's profitable but the others said that each time they tried it, they ended up very little to no profit.

I don't have all the details so I don't want it dive in to avoid saying what I don't know and or not sure of, but the sure thing is that arbitrage is absolutely very possible on polymarket, it's completely up to you as a gambler to device a strategy that will be profitable for you, And since according to reports that polymarket is a decentralised betting platform, this type of betting shouldnt be a problem I guess.

[pina_pino]

There are some type in arbitrage on prediction market, I know some of it. If you only use 1 platform then you use Single market arbitrage, Multi‑outcome arbitrage, Cross-condutional arbitrage.

• Single market arbitrage

         In any market where outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. Possible to buy with limit orders only.

         YES(o1) + NO(o2) < 1.00
 
         Example:

         BTC trading above 87961$ on 15 min. market

         UP (0.51$) + DOWN (0.46$) = 0.97$ → guaranteed 1$ payout

• Multi‑outcome arbitrage

         Used in multi‑outcome markets (e.g., “Who wins the election?” with 3+ candidates)
 
         YES (o1) + YES (o2) + YES (o3) < 1$
 
         Example:

         “Who wins the 2024 US election?” with 3 outcomes.

         Trump: YES 0.4$ , Biden 0.35$, Kamala 0.2$

         Sum = 0.40 + 0.35 + 0.20 = $0.95 → guaranteed 1$ payout

• Cross-condutional arbitrage

        Only used when two or more related markets exist on the same event (e.g., “Who wins?” and “Winning margin?”).
 
        YES(M1) + NO(M2) < 1$

        Example:

        “Will Trump win the Republican nomination?” = 0.70$

        “Will Trump win the Election?” = 0.75$

        Buy «NO» on general for 0.25$ and buy «YES» on nomination for 0.7$
 
        Sum  = 0,95$ → guaranteed 1$ payout

But arbitrage opportunities on one platform are sometimes difficult because bots will definitely take them. Usually, if you want to arbitrage, you can use two platforms, such as Polymarket and Kalshi. There is an account on X that provides arbitrage services, @ArbBets20. You can also find knowledge about prediction market arbitrage on X. There are many explanations of arbitrage in prediction markets. If you don't understand, there are also many accounts on X that discuss and explain what prediction markets are. One more thing, I copied the explanation of the arbitrage types above from an account on X named @0xMovez.[/list]

[bitbollo]

I have never tried yet to make any arbitrage but it could be possible since you can buy and sell a certain outcome.
As reported, here the scenario requires to bet in two opposite events but due some "changes" of the odd you can in any case get a profit.
If you have no experience (practically) it is better to take some test and to be able alone how to manage the math behind
Pay attention to fee and any othe expense. In general, the amount that can win is a small amount.
These spreads are always identified by gamblers and bookmakers. If you don't know how to gamble quickly, it's really hard to get a profit (and profit here are always small profits...)

[internetional]

Of course, arbitrage in betting is possible. As long as there is an information asymmetry between participants, differences in odds will appear, on which one can earn money.

Dishonest dealers fight arbitrage simply because they do not want to honor their own obligations. And on Polymarket, there is simply no one to fight it. You are forced to give the counterparty their winnings. The only way to avoid this is to somehow interfere with the work of the oracle. But, in my opinion, that is too complicated. It is easier to open your own bookmaker's office and secretly tweak the odds there.

I’m interested in real experiences

I gave a real example of arbitrage in another thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5570411.msg66338200#msg66338200 This is not my experience, but it is an experience that can be verified and its authenticity confirmed.