Coinbase prediction market

[Oshosondy]

It has been announced that Coinbase has started its prediction market. Coinbased announced this on X that the anticipated prediction market has been launched and live in all states in the United States:

Out: Odds set by the house.
In: Price set by the crowd.
Now there's a new way to trade your takes.
Prediction markets are live in all 50 states on Coinbase.
Trade any real-world outcomes across sports, politics, culture and more.

coinbase.com/predictions
Make sure your Coinbase app is updated to the latest version.

Legal stuff:
Listed futures and swaps are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets ("CFM"), a NFA member firm. Trading prediction contracts involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Contracts pay out only if the specified event occurs. Trade only if you understand the product and believe it is appropriate for your financial situation and objectives.

I will prefer to use Polymarket but I think it will be good if we all know about this.

It is launched with the help of Kalshi.

[gordonics.com]

Prediction markets are a big business and growing rapidly. But I don't think Coinbase has opened its own.

I looked at some bets, and they mirror Kalshi's in percentage values. So I think Coinbase is simply a Kalshi client, not a new player in this market.

[Hispo]

It would make sense if Coinbase joined the business of prediction markets, it is a huge industry and they are likely the only known service which could face the dominance of Polymarket.
On the other hand, shareholders of Coinbase could see this movement as a desperate attempt by Coinbase to increase their profitability in the med and long term, perhaps because they are not getting as much money as they liked from their crypto business alone.

Anyways, betting markets in the United States are a relatively new market thanks to recent reforms on the law of the USA. If they do well and they good money out of this, it would not be surprising to see them moving onto other countries.

[Orpichukwu]

It would make sense if Coinbase joined the business of prediction markets, it is a huge industry and they are likely the only known service which could face the dominance of Polymarket.

I don't think Coinbase will be much of a problem or competition to Polymarket since I can see Coinbase focused mostly on the US stock market, and Polymarket is creating prediction opportunities on almost all events that could attract the attention of bettors. Unless Coinbase chooses to offer all services like Polymarket, which I doubt, there should be limited events they should make available.

[BitMaxz]

Coinbase is known; I don't see any reasons for not using it compared to Polymarket. For now they have fewer customers using their prediction market; if we compare them to Polymarket, it seems it's way better and has more options than Coinbase.
The crypto prediction in Coinbase is more limited than in Polymarket, which has many options.
So I think I might stay using Polymarket rather than Coinbase.

[justinlamode]

Coinbase is always looking for opportunities to rake in profits. They are always chasing the latest trend that fetches them more money and then prediction market is the latest oil well in town. Despite that Coinbase is an established name in cryptocurrency industry, I will always prefer polymarket that I know meets all my needs in the production business. I really do not have any need to use Coinbase for prediction business.

[acroman08]

The prediction market is inside their exchange site, right? I wonder if they'd be required to get another license for it, or if they'd just disable that part of their website in other countries, I mean, Polymarket was banned in other countries for not having a necessary gambling license for their prediction market.

[Potato Chips]

Oh wow.

Gotta say, Kalshi partnering with the big names in the US crypto industry is a damn good strategy. Aside from Coinbase which is like the top dog in the USA, they also have robinhood and crypto.com if I'm not wrong. And honestly, I would not be surprised if they're still cooking with other popular brands lol.

Though, I still don't think they will be able to flip PolyMarket lol. But it's nice to see them up their game to get market share.

[Questat]

The prediction market is inside their exchange site, right? I wonder if they'd be required to get another license for it, or if they'd just disable that part of their website in other countries, I mean, Polymarket was banned in other countries for not having a necessary gambling license for their prediction market.

They don’t really need another license because they’re partnered with Kalshi. Basically, when you use that prediction market, you’re just being redirected to Kalshi’s system.

Since they’re partners, I’m pretty sure Coinbase still makes money from it too. In this setup, they’re more like a broker, connecting users to Kalshi instead of running everything themselves.

https://goodmoneyguide.com/usa/coinbase-prediction-markets/

Users can buy, sell or adjust positions in real time as news and information emerge, without having to wait for the final outcome. The markets are fully regulated in the US and are offered through Coinbase Financial Markets in partnership with Kalshi, with contracts spanning areas such as politics, economics, crypto, sports, technology and culture.

[OgNasty]

Coinbase does seem to be putting itself in a position to make a lot of money. If it bottoms hard later this year it might be a good investment. Prediction markets are surely hot right now. I’m going to be watching the numbers to see if Coinbase can gather some of this market share.

[Dex_master25]

The prediction market is inside their exchange site, right? I wonder if they'd be required to get another license for it, or if they'd just disable that part of their website in other countries, I mean, Polymarket was banned in other countries for not having a necessary gambling license for their prediction market.

They don’t really need another license because they’re partnered with Kalshi. Basically, when you use that prediction market, you’re just being redirected to Kalshi’s system.

Since they’re partners, I’m pretty sure Coinbase still makes money from it too. In this setup, they’re more like a broker, connecting users to Kalshi instead of running everything themselves.

https://goodmoneyguide.com/usa/coinbase-prediction-markets/

Users can buy, sell or adjust positions in real time as news and information emerge, without having to wait for the final outcome. The markets are fully regulated in the US and are offered through Coinbase Financial Markets in partnership with Kalshi, with contracts spanning areas such as politics, economics, crypto, sports, technology and culture.

Could this development be a good reason why polymarket has been coming under alot of fire lately? The prediction market is revolutionizing gambling and i see news on this subject almost every time, that curiosity got the better part of me and i had to know what it was really about.
It is a great accomplishment for coinbase and am sure would see more competitions arising soonest.

[Potato Chips]

Could this development be a good reason why polymarket has been coming under alot of fire lately? The prediction market is revolutionizing gambling and i see news on this subject almost every time, that curiosity got the better part of me and i had to know what it was really about.
It is a great accomplishment for coinbase and am sure would see more competitions arising soonest.

TBH, I think it's just another case of new thing that has started to gain massive popularity so the watch dogs have to scrutinize it LOL.

Most especially in the USA because regulatory bodies are so much stricter compared to some other countries, and it was worse before trump took a seat. IIRC, the polymarket beef started even before Trump took a seat.

Take other crypto biz that had US residents for instance, it's all fun and games until they started booming.

[Questat]

The prediction market is inside their exchange site, right? I wonder if they'd be required to get another license for it, or if they'd just disable that part of their website in other countries, I mean, Polymarket was banned in other countries for not having a necessary gambling license for their prediction market.

They don’t really need another license because they’re partnered with Kalshi. Basically, when you use that prediction market, you’re just being redirected to Kalshi’s system.

Since they’re partners, I’m pretty sure Coinbase still makes money from it too. In this setup, they’re more like a broker, connecting users to Kalshi instead of running everything themselves.

https://goodmoneyguide.com/usa/coinbase-prediction-markets/

Users can buy, sell or adjust positions in real time as news and information emerge, without having to wait for the final outcome. The markets are fully regulated in the US and are offered through Coinbase Financial Markets in partnership with Kalshi, with contracts spanning areas such as politics, economics, crypto, sports, technology and culture.

Could this development be a good reason why polymarket has been coming under alot of fire lately? The prediction market is revolutionizing gambling and i see news on this subject almost every time, that curiosity got the better part of me and i had to know what it was really about.
It is a great accomplishment for coinbase and am sure would see more competitions arising soonest.

Yes, probably because once Coinbase is involved, regulators will start looking at them as a standard. So whatever compliance Coinbase follows, Polymarket and their partners will probably have to follow too. Before, it felt like a gray area. But Coinbase is big, so more scrutiny is expected to all players offering the same.

If Polymarket doesn’t fully comply, Coinbase could easily pull away from them, and that would be bad news as the US is probably their biggest market, so losing that would really hurt.

[alegotardo]

It has been announced that Coinbase has started its prediction market. Coinbased announced this on X that the anticipated prediction market has been launched and live in all states in the United States

Wow! That is really great. But I wish Coinbase would create suspense first, and I've already imagined the following scenario:

People placing bets on Polymarket about whether or not Coinbase will enter the predictive betting market by the end of the first quarter!

Anyway, I think the more reliable places to place predictive bets the better, at least we can have more arbitrage options, and I am sure Coinbase would be a good option to analyze... this betting market is huge, there is space for more players.

[Hispo]

It would make sense if Coinbase joined the business of prediction markets, it is a huge industry and they are likely the only known service which could face the dominance of Polymarket.

I don't think Coinbase will be much of a problem or competition to Polymarket since I can see Coinbase focused mostly on the US stock market, and Polymarket is creating prediction opportunities on almost all events that could attract the attention of bettors. Unless Coinbase chooses to offer all services like Polymarket, which I doubt, there should be limited events they should make available.

We could assume the staff in charge of Coinbase are not stupid enough to launch a service which is not comparable to what their direct competitors are offering already. That being said, I would bet Coinbase will offer similar markets to those which are on Polymarket, otherwise they will lose the interest of all people who could move onto Coinbase instead of remaining on Polymarket.

The only problem for Coinbase in the future could be regulation in the United States, and oversight from regulators who will try to tackle users with privileged information who will undoubtedly try to take advantage of the marketa on Coinbase, in a similar fashion some markets in Polymarket have been exploited.

[rdluffy]

Oh wow.

Gotta say, Kalshi partnering with the big names in the US crypto industry is a damn good strategy. Aside from Coinbase which is like the top dog in the USA, they also have robinhood and crypto.com if I'm not wrong. And honestly, I would not be surprised if they're still cooking with other popular brands lol.

Though, I still don't think they will be able to flip PolyMarket lol. But it's nice to see them up their game to get market share.

What I understand is that Kalshi is very focused on the US market, and Polymarket on the rest of the world, and this is unlikely to change in the near future
These partnerships with Coinbase further strengthen its presence in the US market and ensure compliance with regulations for that market

Now, will Coinbase offer something different, or did it just jump on the bandwagon to make some quick cash?

[jcojci]

One more competitor for Polymarket and Kalshi. We will see who grow their business in the future as Polymarket already got their fans.

But I still choose Polymarket as I know the site and like the design.

Coinbase don't wants to miss the chances to make more money so they build that. We will see what people reaction with this.

[Charles-Tim]

One more competitor for Polymarket and Kalshi. We will see who grow their business in the future as Polymarket already got their fans.

But I still choose Polymarket as I know the site and like the design.

Polymarket is also different because it does not require KYC.

Kalshi helped Coinbase to launch the prediction market. I think it is the second after Polymarket.

Coinbase don't wants to miss the chances to make more money so they build that. We will see what people reaction with this.

Even more exchanges will later join. I read few weeks ago that Crypto.com has prediction market already for United States customers.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

One more competitor for Polymarket and Kalshi. We will see who grow their business in the future as Polymarket already got their fans.

But I still choose Polymarket as I know the site and like the design.

Coinbase don't wants to miss the chances to make more money so they build that. We will see what people reaction with this.

With the success of Polymarket, several companies have identified a niche market with significant potential. First is was casinos, now we might start to see more and more exchanges. They may attempt to capture Polymarket's current market share, but even if they do not succeed, or do not succeed significantly, as it is a growing market, it is an investment that, if done well, looks set to generate good profits.

[KiaKia]

If opportunity present itself around new prediction projects I will be investing heavily on them, I have not seen a prediction project that's failing as we speak, they are very similar to running a online casino, they are never going out of business.

Coinbase already have alot of users behind them, so it wouldn't be hard for them to gain customers on the prediction platform, as for polymarket they are already growing rapidly.

It is still too early around prediction market because there aren't many, so therefore the challenges isn't going to be as big as running a crypto exchange or a online casino.