A little technical analysis on BTC chart

[OsaiEmma]

As of today, I just feel like doing a little TA on Bitcoin chart today


In this TA, I'm using strictly demand zone, supply zone, support line, and resistance line.

As at the time I took this screenshot, Bitcoin is resting at $78,423, which just left the bottom of the the demand zone I made, if it goes further down, we will see a support at the previous ATH, if it breaks that, or a candle closes below the demand zone, we will be seeing an early bearish turn in the market which could last a full year. But if not the market will go to the top resistance forming a triple top then we will have a bearish market that will bottom within the bearish demand zone, and then continue another phase of bull market before the next halving in 2028 which will help ush the momentum upward with greater force, by creating scarcity.

That's my take on the market using the settings I have and purely based on the chart and candle stick behavior.
P.S: NFA

[Ruttoshi]

Nice chart but I don't believe in all these technical analysis anymore because it's not certain that it will play out that way. The market is currently beyond technical analysis because fundamental analysis is superior to technical analysis since the market is controlled by investors sentiment which is how they react to the latest news on media.

I believe we are in the bear market and there's an ongoing geopolitical crisis, I expect bitcoin to dip more, it wouldn't be so fast but in a gradual process. It's time to keep your DCA ongoing.

[DeeppRockk]

Nice chart but I don't believe in all these technical analysis anymore because it's not certain that it will play out that way. The market is currently beyond technical analysis because fundamental analysis is superior to technical analysis since the market is controlled by investors sentiment which is how they react to the latest news on media. I believe we are in the bear market and there's an ongoing geopolitical crisis, I expect bitcoin to dip more, it wouldn't be so fast but in a gradual process. It's time to keep your DCA ongoing.

^ You're both describing parts of the same mechanical system. The 'investor sentiment' you think drives the market is itself a product of price action -people get bullish when price goes up. News is just a catalyst; the market's digestion of it follows predictable liquidity patterns that TA tries to model.

Retail conflates social media sentiment with actual market sentiment. The real sentiment that matters is the aggregate position of leveraged entities on derivatives exchanges, which is a hard number from an API.

When funding rates flip negative and open interest drops in a downtrend, that's a 'sentiment' reading that's fundamentally technical.

geopolitical crisis is another variable in the risk model.

Expecting a gradual dip is a reasonable baseline built on the observable fact that large liquidations haven't clustered at a specific price yet...

which is, again, a technical observation. The system just processes orders. DCA is the rational adaptation to that.

[OsaiEmma]

Nice chart but I don't believe in all these technical analysis anymore because it's not certain that it will play out that way. The market is currently beyond technical analysis because fundamental analysis is superior to technical analysis since the market is controlled by investors sentiment which is how they react to the latest news on media.

I believe we are in the bear market and there's an ongoing geopolitical crisis, I expect bitcoin to dip more, it wouldn't be so fast but in a gradual process. It's time to keep your DCA ongoing.

This is also within my scope, I believe there would be a further dip if price breaks the demand zone, although after hitting the previous ATH if a daily or weekly candle closes below the demand zone then we will see a continuous downward movement.
With that being said, every news or what not is being directly represented in the behavior of the chart cause the chart tells us how investors and traders react to these news. Ofc course fundamental news is very important, but you can be swept away if you don't know how investors reacts to these news which is through the chart.

Nice chart but I don't believe in all these technical analysis anymore because it's not certain that it will play out that way. The market is currently beyond technical analysis because fundamental analysis is superior to technical analysis since the market is controlled by investors sentiment which is how they react to the latest news on media. I believe we are in the bear market and there's an ongoing geopolitical crisis, I expect bitcoin to dip more, it wouldn't be so fast but in a gradual process. It's time to keep your DCA ongoing.

^ You're both describing parts of the same mechanical system. The 'investor sentiment' you think drives the market is itself a product of price action -people get bullish when price goes up. News is just a catalyst; the market's digestion of it follows predictable liquidity patterns that TA tries to model.

Retail conflates social media sentiment with actual market sentiment. The real sentiment that matters is the aggregate position of leveraged entities on derivatives exchanges, which is a hard number from an API.

When funding rates flip negative and open interest drops in a downtrend, that's a 'sentiment' reading that's fundamentally technical.

geopolitical crisis is another variable in the risk model.

Expecting a gradual dip is a reasonable baseline built on the observable fact that large liquidations haven't clustered at a specific price yet...

which is, again, a technical observation. The system just processes orders. DCA is the rational adaptation to that.

Yes DCA is very instrumental as an investor, but also understanding the mechanisms of the coin is also important so as to know what phase the investment is at, with that, you can consciously and intentionally plan your strategy and execute it way better than someone that just DCA without understanding or with minimal knowledge except the ones gotten from investors sentiment and social media hype and FUD.
A demand zone is a good place to accumulate too because I it goes up more profit, if it breaks down , keep accumulating (n/b: NFA)

[crwth]

I like how you handled and showed your TA and gave hope to the bull market. Lol. ^{Always wishful thinking}

Have you considered OP using an indicator that checks the volume? Because in breakouts/breakdowns, it can bring some good indication of where the price could be going. It's important to note where the liquidity will go so we can assess where it could be going.

Maybe another indicator is the liquidations of traders. Hmm.

[OsaiEmma]

I like how you handled and showed your TA and gave hope to the bull market. Lol. ^{Always wishful thinking}

Have you considered OP using an indicator that checks the volume? Because in breakouts/breakdowns, it can bring some good indication of where the price could be going. It's important to note where the liquidity will go so we can assess where it could be going.

Maybe another indicator is the liquidations of traders. Hmm.

Yeah.... volume is a pretty good indicator, but I feel generally indicators are lagging tools to predict price movement, but I do not rule it out, why I didn't talk about the volume is because the month is just starting and I am analyzing from a monthly chart so we can't say for sure what will happen with volume, although the volume indicator is right below the chart, around the second or 3rd week, I'll look at the weekly chart to know what exactly will happen, but your suggestion is very much valid

[Stepstowealth]

As of today, I just feel like doing a little TA on Bitcoin chart today

I would like to give a little advice that on no matter how you think that your analysis on Bitcoin is correct and your intent to maybe place a trade on it, do not use a high leverage, and also set a good stop loss for the trade. Th chart can move abnormally on some days and you cannot know why, but as already said, the major driving force of the market right now is news and events that we are all unsure of the effect on the market most times. If you are a trader, there is a real importance for you to be careful trading this period.

[Yamane_Keto]

price closures below $80,000 could signal a bearish move and lead to a decline towards the daily support level at $73,000.Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicates bearish momentum. Unless we close above $80,000 before the end of the week, we are likely to test the $73,000 level. a return to $80,000 is crucial to confirm or refute any trend.

[OsaiEmma]

As of today, I just feel like doing a little TA on Bitcoin chart today

I would like to give a little advice that on no matter how you think that your analysis on Bitcoin is correct and your intent to maybe place a trade on it, do not use a high leverage, and also set a good stop loss for the trade. Th chart can move abnormally on some days and you cannot know why, but as already said, the major driving force of the market right now is news and events that we are all unsure of the effect on the market most times. If you are a trader, there is a real importance for you to be careful trading this period.

Of course, that's a solid advice, which Is crucial and vital for a good risk management trading strategy, having a low leverage and SL is a basic proctice in money management while trading.
The chart truly can go anywhere, so that's why we look for confirmation before certainly placing any trade, as at now, there is no clear signal as to where the market will go, we are still watching and waiting, once I see a signal, I might update the OP.

price closures below $80,000 could signal a bearish move and lead to a decline towards the daily support level at $73,000.Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicates bearish momentum. Unless we close above $80,000 before the end of the week, we are likely to test the $73,000 level. a return to $80,000 is crucial to confirm or refute any trend.

80k is the most direct resistance point, which is like the previous LL, so it is a point to watch out for most especially in the weekly chart, to know if there will be a break out from the demand zone, either upward or downward, so yeah, your analysis is very much valid, thanks for your contributions.
But on a side note, if it tests that resistance and it doesn't break from the demand zone then we can't say for sure if it will continue downward, I'm not certain myself just speculations but I feel it's going to form a triple top as a reversal signal

[Mrbluntzy]

Either today or within this week, Bitcoin is probably going to break through the $74k support zone, it's just this 🤏 close to break it and when that happens, it's going to head down to the next support and that would be around $50k, that will be the move for this month unless Bitcoin prices bounce back to $80k from this supporter zone that it has almost burst through. Fingers are crossed, waiting to buy the dip at $50k.

Edit,' while I was typing, the support just got broken, since it have taken all the liquidity below, we should expect either a reversal to the up or the continuation of the down trend.

[Zigabel]

For efficiency with your TA, most often, do your TA on the higer time frame and find your entries on the lower time frame, that way you will be able  to add some precision and avoid errors due to parallax. Ther are bored view s and formations you will find on the higher time fram but the lower time frame like that which you used is and will be just to noisy and volatile to show some of those details you get to find only on the higher, but better entries are seen on the lower time frames while good structures are found on the higher time frame frame.

[jossiel]

Thanks for sharing your technical analysis.

we will be seeing an early bearish turn in the market which could last a full year.

That's going to be a long bear market. I can still remember the 2018 and 2022 although a little by little, they're changing.

and then continue another phase of bull market before the next halving in 2028 which will help ush the momentum upward with greater force, by creating scarcity.

It is the safe zone when we go back again to the usual 4-year cycle. If the demand support happens to be seen again for this year, it's a last call to accumulate more before we leave this 2026.

[suzanne5223]

Nice chart but I don't believe in all these technical analysis anymore because it's not certain that it will play out that way. The market is currently beyond technical analysis because fundamental analysis is superior to technical analysis since the market is controlled by investors sentiment which is how they react to the latest news on media.

If you know you, and if you don't know you don't know, but no market is beyond technical analysis, and most things happening are already programmed.
Yes, the market might move based on investors sentiment, but the trend show by the chart will tell the story about it through fundamental analysis, and if you check the FVG in the monthly time frame chart i provided you'll see that the dump should be expected, but most of us (including me) make mistakes believing in the super cycle stated by CZ.
I don't know about fundamental analysis being superior, but there's no way you'll get an A plus setup with both technical and fundamental analysis. No traders will thrive without technical analysis.

According to the chart, if BTC cant hold the $73K price, we should expect $60K price

I believe we are in the bear market and there's an ongoing geopolitical crisis, I expect bitcoin to dip more, it wouldn't be so fast but in a gradual process. It's time to keep your DCA ongoing.

Yes, also expect that, but i think it will be  14 February 2026, and 31 March 2026 that will happen if the market bearish dont stop.

[ancafe]

As at the time I took this screenshot, Bitcoin is resting at $78,423, which just left the bottom of the the demand zone I made, if it goes further down, we will see a support at the previous ATH, if it breaks that, or a candle closes below the demand zone, we will be seeing an early bearish turn in the market which could last a full year. But if not the market will go to the top resistance forming a triple top then we will have a bearish market that will bottom within the bearish demand zone, and then continue another phase of bull market before the next halving in 2028 which will help ush the momentum upward with greater force, by creating scarcity.

I consider the current Bitcoin market to be beyond analysis because it's prone to rapid short-term manipulation and it can be difficult to find accurate analysis points based on the few indicators available. This situation makes it difficult for me to approach analysis, so I usually tend to look for the lowest price position when I want to enter. This could be due to my lack of analytical knowledge, as I'm speaking from my own knowledge. One thing I've learned right now is that we're currently in a bear market with political tensions, wars and other ongoing issues, so we need to be a little cautious to avoid getting caught up in market dynamics.

Previously I predicted that Bitcoin wouldn't fall this deep, but in fact it did. This situation makes it difficult for me to analyze the current market conditions. Therefore, when attempting in-depth analysis, we need to remind ourselves that this is based solely on our own knowledge. This is to avoid misunderstandings and to prevent readers from being trapped by our predictions which may not be accurate.

[dwyane36]

According to the chart, if BTC cant hold the $73K price, we should expect $60K price

On the weekly timeframe, we can note that there is an upward trend line around $60k, or more precisely, $58k. I think it would be logical to end the current bearish trend by touching this trend line. So yes, the probability that support in the $70-73k area will be broken is getting higher and higher every day.

[suzanne5223]

According to the chart, if BTC cant hold the $73K price, we should expect $60K price

On the weekly timeframe, we can note that there is an upward trend line around $60k, or more precisely, $58k. I think it would be logical to end the current bearish trend by touching this trend line. So yes, the probability that support in the $70-73k area will be broken is getting higher and higher every day.

That's exactly what I also see from my end, but I don't want to blow the trumpet to prevent panic decisions for the people following this topic, because we have some newbies among us who technically don't understand the Q1 dump that always happens after the Bitcoin halving effect market.

Back to your analysis, I also believe things can still change, but everything will depend on what President Trump does next, which will impact VIX because when a VIX spike is always typically has a negative impact on Bitcoin market price, and we can see that he's not making any more statements on Greenland.

[Yamane_Keto]

According to the chart, if BTC cant hold the $73K price, we should expect $60K price

I agree with you; the continued stay below $80,000, specifically at the $78,490 level for an extended period, is a clear indication that we will reach levels of $60,000 or $65,520.



This weekly close is very important and I hope it will be above $79,000 at least. If there are disturbances in the energy markets, we may see these levels rise faster to $49,000, which is considered the long-term bottom.

[Pandorak]

As i write this, Bitcoin is trading at around $73,936, which means it is experiencing a sharp decline. The next likely target is the weekly demand zone at $68k. After hitting that price, Bitcoin will rebound/correct to the SbR area at $80k-85k before continuing its decline to the next support level. 

Hopefully, there will be more high impact good news in the near future so that prices can rise significantly again, because Bitcoin is starting to look like a toy, pumped up and dumped in a short period of time with various news stories.