I wonder if the majority will stick to the 'confiscatable' Bitcoin or yet another 'Legacy' Bitcoin will appear with the current, older rules.
Due to the issues I raised in this thread, it could be a legal risk for miners to support the "confiscatable" chain. So I guess at least some could indeed support a "Legacy Bitcoin" which hardforks away, in the case a "confiscation softfork" gets any majority. The question is of course if this Legacy Bitcoin would be able to hold a value close to the original one, it depends on which chain more coins are dumped (well, at least Luke seems to have lost a lot of his coins ...).
I fully agree with DaveF. Like every thing else, you can clearly see that every time they get to put stricter laws in place they will only continue with even more restrictions later when things cool down.
But: Let's assume the question I raised in the OP is true and confiscations are considered theft, and developers and/or miners supporting such a move face legal risk. Wouldn't this mean that each of these steps to enforce stricter rules would become a risk too?
Let's look at the economic aspect. No one in the world except the US can change the Bitcoin protocol. Bitcoin is integrated into the US economy, people and companies pay taxes, and investment funds use this asset. And suddenly someone decides to change the consensus rules. Not all miners are located in the US, and it will be very difficult to force other miners to accept the consensus.
I doubt if even "the US" could change the Bitcoin protocol. The US miners according to a recent web search have a market share of about 37%. That would not be enough for a softfork. It would however be enough for a contentious hardfork.
We could imagine a scenario where the US massively buys Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and/or imposes any legislation that coins held by US institutions cannot be held on a chain with the feature X. X could be privacy, but also at least in theory data-storage related, e.g. we could imagine that they forbid US institutions holding coins on a chain where US military documents could be uploaded and distributed. And thus, as a reaction to this legal change, a Bitcoin developer group develops a hard-forking client with a protocol that confiscates coins.
But hardforks aren't that problematic regarding legal issues, because you always could support the original chain, and probably many outside the US would do that in this scenario. So no coins on the original Bitcoin chain would be confiscated.
The problem seems to me exclusive to softforks. It could be however an issue of hardforks where no alternative chain is mined at all, but I consider that very unlikely in such a controversial scenario.