The long term price is at $58000 and is increasing. Would you invest in it?

[d5000]

The shortest (simple and straightforward) moving average which hasn't declined even in the deepest bear markets is currently at $58,000. It is the 4-year SMA (simple moving average) - i.e. the average price of the last 4 years.

I think the 4-year SMA is an excellent measure to see if the long term trend is still intact. If this indicator goes down for more than a few days (which can happen in some extreme market conditions), it may indicate that there is a fundamental problem with the long term price trend.

But currently it is going up. Since the start of 2026, it went from approximately 56,300$ to 57,300$ - almost a 2% increase, despite of the declining spot price.

Here's a little chart:


(Source is the Bitstamp price at BitcoinWisdom).

Unfortunately the pic is a little bit small, so I write out the major milestones and year-end values since 2020:

- January 2020: $6600
- January 2021: $7900
- $10,000: March 2021
- January 2022: $18,400
- $20,000: March 2022
- January 2023: $23,300
- January 2024: $29,000
- $30,000: February 2024
- $40,000: November 2024
- January 2025: $42,000
- $50,000: July 2025
- January 2026: $56400

If we could invest in this indicator, we would have an asset that steadily grows. In theory, it would be possible to realize it with a combination of smart contracts, for example with Discreet Log Contracts.

Would you invest in this indicator? You would lose all the spikes that make Bitcoin so exciting than right now when the price is fighting to hold the low 70k's. But on the plus side: the indicator has only grown until now.

(I am not planning to implement such a contract myself, although I have investigated a bit how it could be done. But if someone would implement that thing, I'd be really interested!)

[JaanusRaim]

The shortest (simple and straightforward) moving average which hasn't declined even in the deepest bear markets is currently at $58,000. It is the 4-year SMA (simple moving average) - i.e. the average price of the last 4 years.

I think the 4-year SMA is an excellent measure to see if the long term trend is still intact. If this indicator goes down for more than a few days (which can happen in some extreme market conditions), it may indicate that there is a fundamental problem with the long term price trend.

But currently it is going up. Since the start of 2026, it went from approximately 56,300$ to 57,300$ - almost a 2% increase, despite of the declining spot price.

Here's a little chart:


(Source is the Bitstamp price at BitcoinWisdom).

Unfortunately the pic is a little bit small, so I write out the major milestones and year-end values since 2020:

- January 2020: $6600
- January 2021: $7900
- $10,000: March 2021
- January 2022: $18,400
- $20,000: March 2022
- January 2023: $23,300
- January 2024: $29,000
- $30,000: February 2024
- $40,000: November 2024
- January 2025: $42,000
- $50,000: July 2025
- January 2026: $56400

If we could invest in this indicator, we would have an asset that steadily grows. In theory, it would be possible to realize it with a combination of smart contracts, for example with Discreet Log Contracts.

Would you invest in this indicator? You would lose all the spikes that make Bitcoin so exciting than right now when the price is fighting to hold the low 70k's. But on the plus side: the indicator has only grown until now.

(I am not planning to implement such a contract myself, although I have investigated a bit how it could be done. But if someone would implement that thing, I'd be really interested!)

This statistic is interesting and useful but not in such direct sense. You just can not extrapolate past into the future. You have not seen a real bear market yet 

[d5000]

This statistic is interesting and useful but not in such direct sense. You just can not extrapolate past into the future. You have not seen a real bear market yet  

To make the 4-year MA fall significantly, you would need a bear market either longer than 2.5 years (the longest until now was 1.3 years, lasting from November 2013 to February 2015) or more extreme than even the 2013-15 bear (with almost 90% loss from high to the lowest dip of ~$130). The bear markets in Bitcoin were quite harsh, so it's interesting what a "real" bear market would look like for you

Of course it is likely that in some moment Bitcoin could enter negative territory for longer than until now. But at the same time, volatility is decreasing. Even the recent price drop was still much milder than the drops in 2021/22 and 2018.

So the decreasing volatility is also helping that this indicator will probably grow for a long time.

Many seem to use the 200 WMA (200 week MA) for a similar purpose, which is almost on the same value now.

PS: I'm evaluating also the SMA-768 as a quite interesting base for a long term trend. It does fall in bear markets, but smooths out the curve so much that even the harshed bear market until now hasn't made it lose more than 25%. Interestingly, it seems the 2022 bear was more bearish than previous bear markets for this indicator even if volatility is lower, possibly because the price in 2021 stood very high for a long time.

[JaanusRaim]

This statistic is interesting and useful but not in such direct sense. You just can not extrapolate past into the future. You have not seen a real bear market yet  

The bear markets in Bitcoin were quite harsh, so it's interesting what a "real" bear market would look like for you

The previous bears have all been only (or almost only) crypto-specific, they have emerged in the presence of the overall economical prosperity, all other prices (like stocks, real estate, art works and so on) have always only increased and increased during the previous crypto bears... Crypto has until now never met the overall economic crash like 2008.... but such is coming sooner or later (rather sooner if we look at for example the P/E ratio of Standard and Poor 500).

[d5000]

Crypto has already experienced the COVID recession and the post-COVID crash in 2021/22. The 2008 crash was of course deeper but it's possible it wouldn't affect crypto that much, taking into account the extreme situation in the COVID crisis which led even to a crypto (and stock) surge, despite on many people losing their jobs and devastating conditions in several real-world economy sectors (tech surged, however).

The 2007-09 bear in the US stock indices also lasted less than 2 years. It would of course be possible that if such a crash hits Bitcoin just in the "most inconvenient" part of a cycle (e.g. after a prolonged down trend) that this results again in a very deep bear like in 2014 or 2018. But that crash would have to be really extreme, and also global (not only in the US), to be worse than that.

It would also be not a catastrophe for an moving-average-based financial product based on Bitcoin's long term price to descend a bit. Even in extreme conditions it's unlikely such an index loses more than 20%, if there's nothing wrong with Bitcoin's fundamentals (and if there's something wrong then we're doomed anyway ).

[Perfectbaby]

The shortest (simple and straightforward) moving average which hasn't declined even in the deepest bear markets is currently at $58,000. It is the 4-year SMA (simple moving average) - i.e. the average price of the last 4 years.

I think the 4-year SMA is an excellent measure to see if the long term trend is still intact. If this indicator goes down for more than a few days (which can happen in some extreme market conditions), it may indicate that there is a fundamental problem with the long term price trend.

But currently it is going up. Since the start of 2026, it went from approximately 56,300$ to 57,300$ - almost a 2% increase, despite of the declining spot price.

Here's a little chart:


(Source is the Bitstamp price at BitcoinWisdom).

Unfortunately the pic is a little bit small, so I write out the major milestones and year-end values since 2020:

- January 2020: $6600
- January 2021: $7900
- $10,000: March 2021
- January 2022: $18,400
- $20,000: March 2022
- January 2023: $23,300
- January 2024: $29,000
- $30,000: February 2024
- $40,000: November 2024
- January 2025: $42,000
- $50,000: July 2025
- January 2026: $56400

If we could invest in this indicator, we would have an asset that steadily grows. In theory, it would be possible to realize it with a combination of smart contracts, for example with Discreet Log Contracts.

Would you invest in this indicator? You would lose all the spikes that make Bitcoin so exciting than right now when the price is fighting to hold the low 70k's. But on the plus side: the indicator has only grown until now.

(I am not planning to implement such a contract myself, although I have investigated a bit how it could be done. But if someone would implement that thing, I'd be really interested!)

I won't invest on the indicators as I know that doesn't really speak much about the market, most times market could be determined by news which could be positive or negative, and when the news comes even though it is at top you would see it melting down so quickly and even when it's down it could see it doubling simultaneously pushing above its previous price. However, anyone who wants and truly wants to capitalize on those indicators would likely missed the whole Bitcoin trend as the price are always very difficulties to be predictable or factorising.