Lingering, increasing doubts (price, "adoption", ambassadors, online community)

[Puzzled_bystander]

Hello,

Being one of the numerous people who have been banned or shaddow-banned on reddit.com/r/bitcoinmarkets, I hope that a more liberal spirit of discussion is tolerated in this forum.

I have been losely been following Bitcoin since the Covid crash in early 2020. While missing that opportunity to step into the market, I have been a keen observer of the Bitcoin price ever since. Over the course of this journey, I have become increasingly concerned about the following trends:

- Price movement: The price of BTC is still capable of dropping at 20 or 30 percent in a very short span of time. However, fast upswings have become a rarity (Sharp and Sartori ratios). Price development has shown a pattern described as "distribution" and has become hostile for swing traders who would simply like to buy low, hold for a few days, weeks or, at most, months, and sell higher. BTC has become an "asset of long duration", and an extremely cagey one to hold, for that matter.

- Adoption: The number of "active" and "new" addresses, while fluctuating wildly, is stagnating and can be even said to have been in decline. I don't know anybody who is seriously using BTC for payments or transactions on a regular basis. Shops or businesses who accept BTC do this for marketing purposes. Real world use is still non-existent.

- "Ambassadors": Does anybody know what A. Antonopoulos is doing? Why has he stopped publishing videos on Youtube? I can't help have a dubious feeling about that. Has he come to the realisation that BTC will not become the major transformation as an "internet of money" that he once predicted it would?

- The online community on www.reddit.com/r/bitcoinmarkets feels totally dead, compared to the period from, say, early 2018 to autumn 2021. Countless knowledgeable, competent and interesting contributers have vanished for good. Undoubtedly, many of them, because they were ruthlessly censored. I am sensing a general lack of enthusiasm. Lightning? Nobody mentions this anymore, nor any other developments that could lead to more adoption. Other than talk about favorable legislation and FED rate cut decisions that shape tradfi markets, there appears to be no narrative that promises a real surge in interest in BTC.

I am aware that these are anecdotal observations, nevertheless I do feel that they sum up perceptions that many in the space share. IMHO, there are three major possibilities at this point:
a) BTC has been owned/subverted/"tamed" by TPTB and will remain a niche that absorbs liquidity and serves as vehicle for speculation, which includes the associated altcoin universe
b) We are seeing a last gap effort to suppress the price before a wave of capital from commercial banks and, increasingly central banks, finds its weay into this asset

Am I alone with my worries? What do you think? Any comments are welcome.

[AVE5]

- Price movement: The price of BTC is still capable of dropping at 20 or 30 percent in a very short span of time. However, fast upswings have become a rarity (Sharp and Sartori ratios). Price development has shown a pattern described as "distribution" and has become hostile for swing traders who would simply like to buy low, hold for a few days, weeks or, at most, months, and sell higher. BTC has become an "asset of long duration", and an extremely cagey one to hold, for that matter.

Direction of volatility has been so discouraging for swing traders who're holding positions within the a cycle of the short term. A lot of them had held patiently uncontrollably and while the price keep Dipping, they manages to sell on the under panic even at lost.
At this right time traders must have come to agree that they've been on the extreme risk of investing their funds within a short term interval of expecting to sell.
Now they're all scampered contemplating whether to sell or exercise some patient and in the few they keep regretting why they didn't sell at the recent price.
Meanwhile at this point of the bear market investors are buying instead of panic.

[joniboini]

- "Ambassadors": Does anybody know what A. Antonopoulos is doing? Why has he stopped publishing videos on Youtube? I can't help have a dubious feeling about that. Has he come to the realisation that BTC will not become the major transformation as an "internet of money" that he once predicted it would?

I think his Patreon is still active. But even if he stops his activity altogether, I think there can be many reasons for that. From personal or family issues or something else entirely, not necessarily because he sold all his coins. I'd be worried if his exit makes the market crumble if it did happen, though, because it suggests that the network only has values if he is active. He doesn't have to repeat his videos anyway if the message is still the same. CMIIW.

[Puzzled_bystander]

- "Ambassadors": Does anybody know what A. Antonopoulos is doing? Why has he stopped publishing videos on Youtube? I can't help have a dubious feeling about that. Has he come to the realisation that BTC will not become the major transformation as an "internet of money" that he once predicted it would?

I think his Patreon is still active. But even if he stops his activity altogether, I think there can be many reasons for that. From personal or family issues or something else entirely, not necessarily because he sold all his coins. I'd be worried if his exit makes the market crumble if it did happen, though, because it suggests that the network only has values if he is active. He doesn't have to repeat his videos anyway if the message is still the same. CMIIW.

Thanks for your reply. Is it known what he talks about on his Patreon account?

I find it strange and mildly concerning that Antonopoulos did not briefly explain in a last Youtube video or elsewhere why he decided to stop contributing BTC-related content for a broad public audience.

As I reckon that he is a person of high integrity and ethical values, I find it hard to fight the suspicion that Antonopoulos prefers to remain silent rather than come up with a untruthful pretext for his withdrawal.
One could thus argue that if profane or private reasons were his motive, as a honest person, he could simply state this in a more or less direct fashion.

The fact that he has not done this is fuelling my admittedly entirely speculative worries that he may have doubts about the potential of BTC as a technology, investment, or both.