If my memory serves me right, the following rainbow chart was modified after the price had breached the then lowest shade of blue band during the aftermath of the FTX debacle and the associated bearmarket in late 2022 and early 2023.
https://www.moonmath.win/The author of the site at the time added another layer at the bottom of the rainbow, he also replaced many other charts presented on his website, in all of which it had become apparent that BTC's price development was way out of synch with potential price targets implied in these illustrations. It now happens that the price has yet again pierced this lowermost band to the downside.
I am no technical analyst, and I am aware that radically different price projection models exist. The mere fact, however, that the author of this website may soon have to add yet another bottom layer to his rainbow, while even the green zones have not been reached since late 2021, does not bode well IMHO.
What do others think? Counterarguments are welcome, I am looking to be informed by more knowledgeable and intelligent contributers. In fact I would like to believe in BTC's potential again, and yes, also as an investment case.
This is not to bash BTC. Rather, I want to bring into focus the issue of extremly fast diminishing returns in combination with continuing downside volatility. I believe this combination has been nourishing a growing crisis of confidence, especially among longer term hodlers. I am simply worried that investing in BTC, rather than guaranteeing outsized returns and outclassing but the most aggressive speculative assets and vehicles, is increasingly becoming a case of hoping for the best. Mere hope is not a success strategy in my book.
In my view, BTC as an investment case is under acute pressure to perform by rallying fast and powerfully. The usual dull bear market pattern lasting many months and taking a year or even a half to reclaim the shallow ATH of 2025 is no longer acceptable, as for me this would not be enough to continue holding such a volatile and risky asset offering so little upside potential. While I would consider keeping some as an insurance policy, I would no longer want to be exposed to it to a greater extent.
