3 Signs the Bitcoin Bottom is In... Or Is It? Don’t Let FOMO Win

[Alpen]

It's been a long time since I've seen this kind of volatility in Bitcoin. The crypto's price fell to nearly $60K over a week and bounced back to the $70K level within a day. My long limit order was set at $60K, and I almost had tears in my eyes when I saw it didn't trigger, and the chart was already at $70K.

At first, I wanted to jump in at the market price immediately because I saw three signs of a Bitcoin bottom on the chart and in metrics. But I have a principle to take a pause and cool my head. And here's what I saw upon returning and taking a closer look at the signals.

Bitcoin fell to the mining cost level—that's a 100% guarantee of the start of a long-term bull trend. But the price didn't drop below $60K, whereas in any past crypto winter, quotes spent some time below that level.



The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to a level of 6 out of 100. That's a very strong signal, but it's not tied directly to the price. Yes, the cryptocurrency has reached a bottom, but growth will only begin once the Crypto Fear index rises above 20 points.



The MVRV index has fallen into the 0–10 range. This is one of the strongest signals of a crypto winter within Bitcoin's market cycle theory. But it's worth buying when exiting this range.



So, overall, I've set my limit order at $60K, but I've increased the number of lots.

Those who bought at $70K, succumbing to FOMO, are already in the red. After the weekend, the bears might start hunting for the bulls' stop-losses. I've seen analyst forecasts predicting Bitcoin could fall to the $50K mark.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Bitcoin fell to the mining cost level—that's a 100% guarantee of the start of a long-term bull trend.

Apart from death, nothing in this life is 100% guaranteed. Some people also say taxes, but even that isn't 100% guaranteed. Only death.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to a level of 6 out of 100. That's a very strong signal, but it's not tied directly to the price. Yes, the cryptocurrency has reached a bottom, but growth will only begin once the Crypto Fear index rises above 20 points.

...

The MVRV index has fallen into the 0–10 range. This is one of the strongest signals of a crypto winter within Bitcoin's market cycle theory. But it's worth buying when exiting this range.

...

So, overall, I've set my limit order at $60K, but I've increased the number of lots.

Those who bought at $70K, succumbing to FOMO, are already in the red. After the weekend, the bears might start hunting for the bulls' stop-losses. I've seen analyst forecasts predicting Bitcoin could fall to the $50K mark.

So, as I see it, you believe that $60K would be the bottom below which it cannot fall, but you point to some data and opinions that suggest it could. I've been in the markets for too long to see even more sophisticated explanations than this being disproved by the facts. I have no idea what's going to happen, but for me, a drop to $50K, for example, would not be surprising.

[pooya87]

My long limit order was set at $60K, and I almost had tears in my eyes when I saw it didn't trigger, and the chart was already at $70K.

These round numbers are rarely a good position to take. You should always try to set your orders at another price and also if it were possible you should spread/split it into more than one order.

Bitcoin fell to the mining cost level

There is not exactly any such thing though. Bitcoin mining and its cost is an interesting design. It depends on a lot of things, from obvious stuff like electricity price which varies globally to the difficulty. It is not a factor that should be considered when speculating about the price because it is affected by the price, it is not affecting the price!

Yes, the cryptocurrency has reached a bottom, but growth will only begin once the Crypto Fear index rises above 20 points.

For now the "panic" has got a momentum and it is not possible right now to predict when it will stop. We have seen 80% crashes in the past in the big bear markets even though such massive crashes only happened after massive rises with bubbles not after a small rise like we had before this crash began...

[NeuroticFish]

Bitcoin fell to the mining cost level

The cost of Bitcoin mining is pretty much different depending on who you ask.
Even more, the ~11% difficulty adjustment we just had may still reflect in future price. In the next 2 weeks miners will get discounted coins.
And I'd say the crypto winter of the current cycle is not yet over. I hope that I'm mistaking, but the crypto winters I remember seemed to take long (months).

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

From this first chat illustration I've seen some similar predictions over the market as well in this same or similar pattern that the market is possible going to fall for the and even down around $50,000 but since we are now at the end of the week we will have to see what this new week may bring about from the market performance, whereby we can be able to deduce on the aspect of the support and the resistance of the market depending on the pattern it take  henceforth from now.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

And if we look at the cycle,

2017-2018 - (December 2017 peak at ~$19,345.49 and lowest ~$3,236.76) = down 84% from it's all time high
2021-2021 - (November 2021 peak at ~$67,549 and lowest ~$15,787) = down 76% from it's all time high
2025-2026 - (October 2025 peak at $126,296 to the current price price of $68,883) = down ~45.5%

But probably the market is not yet done and it could go and decline further till October of this year. And at a hypothetical $50k, ~60% down.

[OgNasty]

And if we look at the cycle,

2017-2018 - (December 2017 peak at ~$19,345.49 and lowest ~$3,236.76) = down 84% from it's all time high
2021-2021 - (November 2021 peak at ~$67,549 and lowest ~$15,787) = down 76% from it's all time high
2025-2026 - (October 2025 peak at $126,296 to the current price price of $68,883) = down ~45.5%

But probably the market is not yet done and it could go and decline further till October of this year. And at a hypothetical $50k, ~60% down.

If the pattern continues, we don’t hit bottom until October 5th of this year. At that point it will be one hell of a ride to September 3rd, 2029.

The word for 2026 should be patience.

[crwth]

It is very hard to keep up with the current market because any indicator might not be accurate or may signal something, but it does not always go according to plan. Many more factors could derail the current market setup.

Those factors might be related to interest rates, liquidity, ETF flows, and money flowing into and out of the market. It's really hard to get it right, that's why, instead of FOMO-ing, better to go with DCA-ing.

I don't think it's going to be easy for the miners if it goes lower.

[Merit.s]

Expect the price to continue declining gradually because $60k price is still a good price since we will see worse prices below $60k. We might see $40k and below since we still gat a long ride till the last quarter of this year. This is the time to buy and hodli and not to open a position because you don't know what will be the next direction of the market.

[adultcrypto]

Those who bought at $70K, succumbing to FOMO, are already in the red. After the weekend, the bears might start hunting for the bulls' stop-losses. I've seen analyst forecasts predicting Bitcoin could fall to the $50K mark.

You have a very good thread here and I enjoyed reading through it including the nice charts you posted. If you set your entry price at $60k, that is a fair price and I know it will go back there again before we see any significant rally. Even though nothing will surprise me about bitcoin now, I would still doubt that bitcoin will get to $50k before the reversal. That price is too deep for us since we know that bitcoin remaining above $60k just confirms the expectations of many people that bitcoin will retest 2021 high before it will fly away and never to fall below $100k.

[EL MOHA]

And if we look at the cycle,

2017-2018 - (December 2017 peak at ~$19,345.49 and lowest ~$3,236.76) = down 84% from it's all time high
2021-2021 - (November 2021 peak at ~$67,549 and lowest ~$15,787) = down 76% from it's all time high
2025-2026 - (October 2025 peak at $126,296 to the current price price of $68,883) = down ~45.5%

But probably the market is not yet done and it could go and decline further till October of this year. And at a hypothetical $50k, ~60% down.

It’s 2021-2022 from the second year. Firstly one thing is common if we have had price data from previous years before 2017 we will see that the bear market before then was actually more brutal which brings me to my assumptions which is bitcoin volatility is definitely reducing either by the pumping or during bearish periods.

It is with this consistent volatility reduction that i actually sets the bitcoin price bottom closing at around $45k which means a ~65% price dump from the all time high of ~$126k

If the pattern continues, we don’t hit bottom until October 5th of this year. At that point it will be one hell of a ride to September 3rd, 2029.

The word for 2026 should be patience.

The key word for every bearish year is actually patience I think those that are actually not observing it are those who think because of the short live of bitcoin bullish sentiment last year that we have broken the cycle, anyone who still believes that the cycle is not over wouldn’t be surprised of the current market conditions.

I think judging by last cycle bearish trend we would still not be at the bottom before November

[Alpen]

Apart from death, nothing in this life is 100% guaranteed. Some people also say taxes, but even that isn't 100% guaranteed. Only death.

So, as I see it, you believe that $60K would be the bottom below which it cannot fall, but you point to some data and opinions that suggest it could. I've been in the markets for too long to see even more sophisticated explanations than this being disproved by the facts. I have no idea what's going to happen, but for me, a drop to $50K, for example, would not be surprising.

Having worked in the ICU for 20 years, I can tell you that even the medical declaration of death isn't a 100% guarantee. And from a religious standpoint, we’re actually immortal.

Moving from philosophy back to Bitcoin: during the last crypto winter, I tracked the "mining production cost" floor. I entered a bit late at $17K and cashed out once Bitcoin hit $100K.

The moment Trump promised to make the US the "crypto capital of the world," I knew it was time to stop trading. When politics starts selling the dream, the smart money looks for the exit.

[Alpen]

These round numbers are rarely a good position to take. You should always try to set your orders at another price and also if it were possible you should spread/split it into more than one order.

Bitcoin fell to the mining cost level

There is not exactly any such thing though. Bitcoin mining and its cost is an interesting design. It depends on a lot of things, from obvious stuff like electricity price which varies globally to the difficulty. It is not a factor that should be considered when speculating about the price because it is affected by the price, it is not affecting the price!

You’re absolutely right about the round numbers. Price rarely hits them exactly because traders stack their limit orders either slightly above or below the level, depending on the prevailing sentiment.

As for the mining cost, this has been a topic of debate on this forum since 2010. Despite the skepticism, this factor still holds up—you only need to look at a chart with the right indicator to see it.

While you’re right that the global cost is hard to pin down due to many variables, we should focus on the data from major mining pools. These figures are analyzed by Cambridge, and I have a great deal of trust in their research and methodology.

[JeffBrad12]

Its really hard to predict the bottom even with that indicator. There's just no telling at this point, that's why I prefer to see the price and see if it's already at the point where it should be considered grossly undervalued.
That will be the right time to increase my DCA size.

Those indicators are good but don't be surprised even if all those 3 showing strong signal of bottom, it still goes down even further.

[el kaka22]

While it's true that 60k should have hit and should have executed the trade, it's still not too late to try again. This increase is temporary and we may fall again and the price will hit bottom again. Obviously this time, it may keep going down instead of going up so it would not be the same. Most people do not realize that it is not the same as investing into something at the right time, because two prices hit the same time is not the same result at always. Like 60k hit that time and went up, next one could drop further and example is as simple as that.

When history says that the bear market in 4 year cycle is a year long, we may not have repeating of history but surprises. Because, a new ATH happened earlier than usual hence bear trend also may end earlier but we cannot expect bull's action right away but stagnant market for next few months.

[AVE5]

It's been a long time since I've seen this kind of volatility in Bitcoin. The crypto's price fell to nearly $60K over a week and bounced back to the $70K level within a day.

The $60,000 range drop was about 17% which occurred within a day.
But you must be coming into the industry recently because I can still recall the previous 2022 winter with the drop of bitcoin price.
I could also remember the price slash at 50% in 2020 during Covid-19 which also happened within a day.
Emotions could be attached but I hope you'd hold firm over the unexpected sharp fall.
Such is part of the tradition which occurs due to breakdown from the key supports that drives volatility.

[Alpen]

Its really hard to predict the bottom even with that indicator. There's just no telling at this point, that's why I prefer to see the price and see if it's already at the point where it should be considered grossly undervalued.
That will be the right time to increase my DCA size.

Those indicators are good but don't be surprised even if all those 3 showing strong signal of bottom, it still goes down even further.

We’ll see how it plays out

[Alpen]

The $60,000 range drop was about 17% which occurred within a day.
But you must be coming into the industry recently because I can still recall the previous 2022 winter with the drop of bitcoin price.
I could also remember the price slash at 50% in 2020 during Covid-19 which also happened within a day.
Emotions could be attached but I hope you'd hold firm over the unexpected sharp fall.
Such is part of the tradition which occurs due to breakdown from the key supports that drives volatility.

I’ve been in the market long enough to have weathered two full crypto winters. I’m simply stating a fact: we haven’t seen this level of volatility in quite a while, and that’s a major red flag. It suggests that institutional inflows are either insufficient or that corporations are starting to exit the crypto space.

[dansus021]

as you can see here


https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-reserve

The total number of coins held in the exchange.
As the values continue to rise in reserve, it indicates higher selling pressure and has shown an opposite trend in price in general. (For stablecoin, value rise indicates buying pressure)
For derivative exchange, since coins could be used to open both long/short, a rise in reserve values indicates possible high volatility.

In a simple way people are buying bitcoin and keep withdrawing from Exchange and can be indicate that they still buy and hold for long term iMO