Bitcoin Will Survive This Storm. Lesson from the 4-Year Cycle

[Call_Me_Guru]

For Bitcoin, it has been Scary Lows but Legendary Highs, the Storm has never lasted, we should learn from that. We shout Red now, but Green will be way more when the time comes.

Whenever the market turns Red and the headlines scream "The End," I remember the cobwebs of the past, obstacles has never been absent in the world of Bitcoin. But the best part is that Bitcoin hasn't just survived all of them, it has used every crash as fuel for the next bullish explosion, a very new ATH. It hasn't failed! If you doubt now, learn from the history.

The "Fatal" Crashes:

• In 2011, Bitcoin plunged from $30 to $2. This is ≈93% drop. Critics said the experiment was over.
• Between 2014 and 2015, which includes Mt. Gox era. Bitcoin fell from $1,100 to $170. An approximately 84% drop. The world’s biggest exchange died then, but Bitcoin again survived.
• Ohhh, the OGs can never forget 2018, the time of The Great Crypto Winter. Bitcoin crashed from $20k to $3,100 (≈84% drop). Mainstream media and haters wrote uncountable "obituaries" for BTC. But it still survived.
• Most recent was between 2021 and 2022. The era of China's misfire and The FTX/Luna Disaster. Bitcoin plummeted from $69k to $15k, which represents ≈77% drop. Confidence was at almost zero, yet Bitcoin is above all those prices today even with the recent fall.

The Cycle Doesn't Lie:
What many don't know or don't want to admit is that Bitcoin moves in seasons. We’ve seen this script played before now.

• Cycle Peaks: Euphoria and new ATHs (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025).
  
• Cycle Bottoms: 2014, 2018, 2022. Optimism were almost dead.
  
• Next Bottom/Peak: Hopefully 2026/2029
  

From these, we are currently in a cycle testing phase again in 2026, no need to panic. They call it "a crash" but I call it the Accumulation Zone. Bitcoin was built for the storm, it shall survive as before. The collective precious hands called the community will make sure of that.

...because I see Bitcoin market not as a regular market, but as rare resilience. This Storm is just another chapter similar to the past, it can't be the final. Learn from them and start planning to buy big when you start seeing a similar pattern of 2014, 2018 and 2022.

I sourced help from Bitcoin's chart, Investopedia, GlobalData, FinTech Futures, CoinCodex, Oanda, MarketPulse, and Bitbo.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Of course it will survive, it has faced much bigger threats than a 50% drawdown (so far). Bitcoin is still really volatile but that’s a feature not a bug, one which you can really use to your advantage if you know how to read the four year cycles.

[stompix]

The "Fatal" Crashes:

• In 2011, Bitcoin plunged from $30 to $2. This is ≈93% drop.
• Between 2014 and 2015, which includes Mt. Gox era. Bitcoin fell from $1,100 to $170. An approximately 84% drop.
• Ohhh, the OGs can never forget 2018, the time of The Great Crypto Winter. Bitcoin crashed from $20k to $3,100 (≈84% drop).
• Most recent was between 2021 and 2022. The era of China's misfire and The FTX/Luna Disaster. Bitcoin plummeted from $69k to $15k, which represents ≈77% drop.

Good now do the math for what those drops represent
- 2011, 10500000 Bitcoins so 28x10500000 > $300 millions
- 2014, 15000000 Bitcoins > 900x15000000 > 13.5 billion
- 2018, 18000000 Bitcoins > 17000x18000000 > 300 billion
- 2021, 19000000 Bitcoins > 55000x19000000 >  1 trillion
- 2026, 20000000 Bitcoins > 66000x20000000 > 1.32 trillion

So which one was the worst?

[Thrower8729]

I just noticed that each drop the percentage between the ATH and the floor decreases each cycle. Based on that, Bitcoin each cycle gets more stable and less volatile, although as the market cap increases, the bigger the drop number looks.

[boyptc]

The scary lows are just now part of the history of how Bitcoin grown from an asset that's not given attention by the masses to being the one of the most desired asset to have.

I just noticed that each drop the percentage between the ATH and the floor decreases each cycle. Based on that, Bitcoin each cycle gets more stable and less volatile, although as the market cap increases, the bigger the drop number looks.

Nice observation.

That's actually what is happening right now and it's very noticeable. Each cycle that passes by, we're getting lower increase for the ATHs and then for the bottom of each of these cycles.

[aoluain]

If you have come to be around Bitcoin for at least 4 years you will have experienced this current
market shift before, its nothing new and if anything the OP better hold on tight because its going
to get "scarier" ^{for the uninitiated}

For those who are seasoned to this type of market movement and who are advocates of "buy low,
sell high" this is a great opportunity to increase HODL'ings as LFC_Bitcoin suggests.

[pooya87]

Although I believe the traditional "cycles" trend no longer exists but we have something close to it with smaller rises and smaller crashes. Which is why we didn't have a massive rise before all this dramatic crash began

In any case it is good to remined the newcomers to take a look back at the history of all these ups and downs. All it takes is go to one of those sites that has a price chart history. I remember back when I entered the bitcoin world price was $400-$500 and with my luck it continued to go down constantly until it reached $150 and that was a good first experience... Do you think anybody minds having bought bitcoin at $500 because it dumped back then?! LOL

[Odogwu-Blockchain]

I first encountered Bitcoin when at $400-$800 the first time around 2017, I experienced every crashes and pump till today and then I never worry about the price anymore, I am used to it to the point I get happy whenever it crashes, many wonder why.

I see every failed time as an opportunity to grab more, why newbies sees it as an end time, end of the story. What's more interesting is that, history repeats itself in every industry. So it is in the crypto industry. Those new in the industry has to study history to flourish or perish at their ignorance.

[gibrab16]

For Bitcoin, it has been Scary Lows but Legendary Highs, the Storm has never lasted, we should learn from that. We shout Red now, but Green will be way more when the time comes.

Whenever the market turns Red and the headlines scream "The End," I remember the cobwebs of the past, obstacles has never been absent in the world of Bitcoin. But the best part is that Bitcoin hasn't just survived all of them, it has used every crash as fuel for the next bullish explosion, a very new ATH. It hasn't failed! If you doubt now, learn from the history.

The "Fatal" Crashes:

• In 2011, Bitcoin plunged from $30 to $2. This is ≈93% drop. Critics said the experiment was over.
• Between 2014 and 2015, which includes Mt. Gox era. Bitcoin fell from $1,100 to $170. An approximately 84% drop. The world’s biggest exchange died then, but Bitcoin again survived.
• Ohhh, the OGs can never forget 2018, the time of The Great Crypto Winter. Bitcoin crashed from $20k to $3,100 (≈84% drop). Mainstream media and haters wrote uncountable "obituaries" for BTC. But it still survived.
• Most recent was between 2021 and 2022. The era of China's misfire and The FTX/Luna Disaster. Bitcoin plummeted from $69k to $15k, which represents ≈77% drop. Confidence was at almost zero, yet Bitcoin is above all those prices today even with the recent fall.

The Cycle Doesn't Lie:
What many don't know or don't want to admit is that Bitcoin moves in seasons. We’ve seen this script played before now.

• Cycle Peaks: Euphoria and new ATHs (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025).
  
• Cycle Bottoms: 2014, 2018, 2022. Optimism were almost dead.
  
• Next Bottom/Peak: Hopefully 2026/2029
  

From these, we are currently in a cycle testing phase again in 2026, no need to panic. They call it "a crash" but I call it the Accumulation Zone. Bitcoin was built for the storm, it shall survive as before. The collective precious hands called the community will make sure of that.

...because I see Bitcoin market not as a regular market, but as rare resilience. This Storm is just another chapter similar to the past, it can't be the final. Learn from them and start planning to buy big when you start seeing a similar pattern of 2014, 2018 and 2022.

I sourced help from Bitcoin's chart, Investopedia, GlobalData, FinTech Futures, CoinCodex, Oanda, MarketPulse, and Bitbo.

yea for sure btc history is basically crash then panic then comeback at new highs. the red days feel scary but they are always been part of the cycle. for a lot of people dips are just loading zones not the end of the story. Patience usually pays in this game and only the patient will come out on top

[Patikno]

From these, we are currently in a cycle testing phase again in 2026, no need to panic. They call it "a crash" but I call it the Accumulation Zone. Bitcoin was built for the storm, it shall survive as before. The collective precious hands called the community will make sure of that.

I don't like it when people say bad things about Bitcoin, especially saying it is going to end. I often hear people say that, and they usually appear when the Bitcoin price drops, but disappear when the Bitcoin price soars. I think that is unfair at all. They should correct their mistakes and tell the truth, instead of empty talk. If they knew about the impact of the Bitcoin halving cycle, the growing adoption of Bitcoin, and the history of Bitcoin, they wouldn't say such negative things. Moreover, if they try to compare Bitcoin to other types of assets, Bitcoin certainly wins in terms of limited supply and scarcity, and in terms of freedom (no authority). I am sure there are many more advantages of Bitcoin over other assets, but I think these two are enough for comparison. Cmiiw.

[DiMarxist]

I completely agree with you looking back it's on record that Bitcoin has experienced even worst times than what we are currently experiencing so it's certain that Bitcoin will survive this storm in terms of the dwindling price in the market.When ever there is a drastic drop in price like this it's certain that the price of Bitcoin is about moving high and hitting all time high, the statistics that are here should sound as a lesson to anyone that is doubting if Bitcoin can really survive this dip period.

[moneystery]

Considering that Bitcoin has been through several times worse than this, it shouldn't be so alarming to see a market drop like this. Even if the market drops 43% from its current ATH, the price will surely recover, and Bitcoin will then rise again and surpass its ATH. This is undeniable, as history shows a pattern of recovery after major corrections.

So, what can be done now is to be patient and wait for the market to improve. While it's uncertain when that will happen, it will certainly recover and return to its bullish trend.

[0x000369]

Bitcoin Will Survive This Storm. Lesson from the 4-Year Cycle

yeah no shit sherlock we been through this song and dance a dozen times already
the "storm" as you call it is just monday for most of us who actually remember gox or the 2018 winter
you think a 77 percent drop is bad try losing everything on an exchange that went poof
the lesson isnt just survival its about who gets rekt and who cashes out
those "precious hands" you talk about often get shaken out at the bottom lol
@stompix has a good point though the actual dollar amount wiped out each time gets insane
this isnt just retail hodling anymore big money plays a different game
so yeah it survives but dont pretend its a walk in the park for everyone
its always an accumulation zone for the ones with dry powder

[BitMaxz]

I totally agree with this. The good part is we didn't hear someone telling us again that Bitcoin is dying or Bitcoin is dead.
And the best part of it is we still have a chance to buy at a much cheaper price.

If they called it a crash, then for us who know about Bitcoin, this is a great opportunity to buy and accumulate more to hold for decades. Since the bottom keeps rising in every cycle. Even though there's a Bitcoin ETF and big institutions on the market, the cycle still repeats.

[Silverstonez]

The Bitcoin market has been red this few months, and instead of recovering, it is dipping more and more. making a lot of person's to panic sell. But if we take a look at the history of Bitcoin we are going to discover that, Bitcoin price has dropped beyond human imaging many times before this present dip. And Presently the Bitcoin market is discovery gradually, which with time it will recover fully.

When ever the Bitcoin market turns red, it is an opportunity to accumulate as much Bitcoin as can and hold for long term. And not the time to panic or to sell out holding. Only those who where never investing in Bitcoin with long term mindset will panic and sell When ever Bitcoin market turns red.

[PrivacyG]

People are running away right now thinking it is dying again and years from now Bitcoin will double, triple or what ever it will do and people will spam the Forum again with Topics about being too late, never being able to accumulate Bitcoin at that price et cetera.  It is definitely a cycle, people only need a little bit of thinking and really little research to find out.

Good thing there is Artificial Intelligence which is always a hit or miss but easier to ask, but even that does not help them out.  If they do not want to learn the easy way, they will learn it the hard way.

[nakamura12]

I don't like it when people say bad things about Bitcoin, especially saying it is going to end. I often hear people say that, and they usually appear when the Bitcoin price drops, but disappear when the Bitcoin price soars.

I think they are only spreading FUD to make many people sell their Bitcoin during the price of Bitcoin decreasing and as you have said disappeas after the price soar. Let's just say that those people the ones who doesn't like Bitcoin or a hater of Bitcoin where they only appear when it's on down side and never appear when it's on good side and are the ones who have weak hands and mentality. During my stay in this forum, I always see people like that and from every 4 year cycle.

[uchegod-21]

Alot of people, both Bitcoin enthusiasts and Bitcoin critics understand that bitcoin moves in cycles. It is just surprising that at every bearish season, the narrative about bitcoin suddenly changes. They ignore historical facts which proved that every phase we meet is part of the cycle, with just time, that phase will pass and everyone will go home with profits if only they hold on during those vulnerable periods. Bitcoin is a beautiful thing to invest in,  it is very neccessary to ignore the negativity and focus on being a strategic investor.

[Furious 7]

For those who have been in bitcoin long enough I think almost all will say the same thing because this condition always happens and indeed we cannot change it because after all fluctuations, volatility is part of bitcoin that we cannot just separate.

It's just that sometimes there are still a lot of fomo who always dramatize this as if this is the end even though this might be their reaction to buying bitcoin when it is still at a much higher price but indeed their way is a little excessive as if this is the apocalypse for investors.

Even though this condition is normal because we do need corrections or crashes like this with several purposes such as eliminating those who are not sure but still insist on being in bitcoin and for much greater growth in the future.
There is no need to panic excessively because everything will return to its original form.

[serjent05]

So which one was the worst?

If we disregard everything, and just stick on percentage drop, we can see that 2011 was the worst.

Anyway, it is obvious that Bitcoin will recover.  Thus, 4 year cycle pattern seems yet to be broken.  This reminds me of someone saying the super cycle thing, saying that Bitcoin might not follow the 4-year cycle pattern, many seem to believe it, and yet just some days passed, and the Bitcoin market proved them wrong.

It looks like Bitcoin sticks to its regular 4-year cycle, so we might see another ATH in 2029?