Bitcoin Will Survive This Storm. Lesson from the 4-Year Cycle

[EL MOHA]

Moreover, if they try to compare Bitcoin to other types of assets, Bitcoin certainly wins in terms of limited supply and scarcity, and in terms of freedom (no authority). I am sure there are many more advantages of Bitcoin over other assets, but I think these two are enough for comparison. Cmiiw.

Sometimes I think of this as this that bitcoin is limited supply actually it’s best trait as to why he is so much highly regarded as an asset? And most of the time I answer myself as No it is not the best trait because we have in abundance coins or even other assets with much less supply than bitcoin which means more scarcity but yet they too do not get the same attraction as bitcoin because bitcoin simply actually carries more advantage that just limited supply

As for those people who actually just spread FUD about bitcoin they are not also blind about what bitcoin is and that bearish periods doesn’t define bitcoin but they certainly have to stick to spreading FUD not that they don’t more about bitcoin but they seriously need to stick with the FUD to actually cover their faces for initially doubting bitcoin and a clear example is Peter Schiff

[SilverCryptoBullet]

Sometimes I think of this as this that bitcoin is limited supply actually it’s best trait as to why he is so much highly regarded as an asset? And most of the time I answer myself as No it is not the best trait because we have in abundance coins or even other assets with much less supply than bitcoin which means more scarcity but yet they too do not get the same attraction as bitcoin because bitcoin simply actually carries more advantage that just limited supply

Alternate cryptocurrencies aka altcoins have limited supplies too but only having limited total supplies is not enough for making altcoins have alike values and prices like Bitcoin has. Even there are altcoins with smaller total supplies than Bitcoin's but their altcoins' values and prices are very lower than Bitcoin's.

These examples are enough to reveal a fact that Bitcoin value is come from many factors and limited total supply is only one of them. You can understand more about Bitcoin fundamentals by reading this following book.

The bullish case for Bitcoin.
After reading it, you will have better knowledge about Bicoin, but also understand differences between Bitcoin and gold, then you can extrapolate it to altcoins and somewhat understand why altcoins can not succeed as same as Bitcoin does.

[UchihaSarada]

Although I believe the traditional "cycles" trend no longer exists but we have something close to it with smaller rises and smaller crashes. Which is why we didn't have a massive rise before all this dramatic crash began

In this cycle, Bitcoin did not have too big rise and too deep fall in short time but it had likely laddering upward and downward movements that are very different than past cycles. In the past cycles, when Bitcoin broke out a resistance, it went upwards very parabolic that did not happen in this market cycle.

Like there are smaller bull market drawdowns
https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/bf532ce2-a66b-4798-6deb-bf3ba7decc59

Bitcoin has smaller bull market ROI growth by cycles and a little smaller corrections from each cycle's All Time High but generally Bitcoin always have deeper corrections from ATHs then people imagined.
Bitcoin historical corrections from all time highs.

[stompix]

So which one was the worst?

If we disregard everything, and just stick on percentage drop, we can see that 2011 was the worst.

Yeah, but at the same time it means nothing!
You have a pocket full of pennies and by the time you arrive home, you find out 50% of them have fallen through a gap and you have lost 10 cents you don't even care
Then again, you came home from shopping and you seem to miss one $100 bill from the 5 the cashier gave you

So back in 2011, a guy having 1000 BTC lost some $28k, now with just one BTC...

This is why I don't like % alone comparisons!

[Fiatless]

I completely agree with you looking back it's on record that Bitcoin has experienced even worst times than what we are currently experiencing so it's certain that Bitcoin will survive this storm in terms of the dwindling price in the market.When ever there is a drastic drop in price like this it's certain that the price of Bitcoin is about moving high and hitting all time high, the statistics that are here should sound as a lesson to anyone that is doubting if Bitcoin can really survive this dip period.

Most of the news about Bitcoin going to zero is done to gain attention. They are aware of the Bitcoin cycle, but they just want to chase clout. These critics were silent when the price hit ATH several times last year. They are now out of their shells because of this slight decline. With my few years in the Bitcoin space, this news doesn't move me.

[OgNasty]

Long live the 4 year cycle.

[ramencoin]

Solid post man. I completely agree with looking at the history here. Bitcoin has seen these scary drops so many times and every single one felt like the final nail in the coffin to the critics. But we're still here in 2026 trading around 70k even after the recent scare down to the low 60s or whatever it was this month.

Your crash numbers line up perfectly with what happened:

2011: dropped like 93% from around 30 bucks to 2
2013-2015 Mt Gox crash: about 86% down from the peak
2017-2018 bear: roughly 84% from 20k to 3100
2021-2022 with Luna FTX and China ban: around 77% from 69k to 15-16k

The cycle pattern has held up every time so far. Halvings drive the big moves, peaks usually come 12-18 months after, then the bear market tests everyone's conviction before the next run. If 2025 was the top (I saw reports pushing past 126k at one point), then this 2026 dip and chop feels exactly like the accumulation phase we get in every cycle.

It's not fun watching red days and doom headlines, but panic selling at these levels has burned people long term in the past. The hashrate is solid, adoption keeps growing quietly, and the community is tougher than ever.

This just looks like another "blood in the streets" buying opportunity to me. I'm holding strong and adding on weakness when I can.

[yixichloro2xx]

One thing that people forget about Bitcoin is how it walked through rough patches many times. Each dips that occur often look like Bitcoin won't recover but every crash reset weak hands and rebuilt stronger conviction. Bitcoin has proven itself to us historically, so I see this dip as a normal occurrence that usually happens and we always knows what happens next whenever this phase is over and moreover it's not only Bitcoin market that experiencing this other market like Gold, silver are also experiencing it too. So surely the market will recover. This is one of the reasons why Bitcoin gains attention from people worldwide.

[Agbamoni]

Bitcoin stats dont lie. Over the years, it has proven superior to all digital currencies.
It falls, it gets back up. Both institutions, governments, have collaborated to bring it down, yet the only effect has been a price drop to some extent. Rest assured, the price will recover. And we all know how high it can go when it starts recovering towards the uptrend direction.

[astar0th]

Now is the time to buy more bitcoin.

[Smartprofit]

So which one was the worst?

If we disregard everything, and just stick on percentage drop, we can see that 2011 was the worst.

Anyway, it is obvious that Bitcoin will recover.  Thus, 4 year cycle pattern seems yet to be broken.  This reminds me of someone saying the super cycle thing, saying that Bitcoin might not follow the 4-year cycle pattern, many seem to believe it, and yet just some days passed, and the Bitcoin market proved them wrong.

It looks like Bitcoin sticks to its regular 4-year cycle, so we might see another ATH in 2029?

Of course not! 🙆 In my opinion, the Bitcoin price peak will be either in 2026 or 2027.

Right now, you're focused solely on the Bitcoin price decline. However, let's recall what the Bitcoin price peak was in 2025. Is $126,000 really that high? During the last bull market, the price peaked at $69,000. And during the bull market before that, the price peaked at $19,000.

The halving will occur in 2028, and the cost of Bitcoin will double. If the next price peak doesn't occur until 2029, all miners will already be bankrupt by then.

I predict that we'll see the Bitcoin price peak in 2026 or 2027.  The price of Bitcoin will exceed $200,000 per coin (e.g. $280,000 per BTC). 🧖

[Emjay24]

I see every failed time as an opportunity to grab more, why newbies sees it as an end time, end of the story. What's more interesting is that, history repeats itself in every industry. So it is in the crypto industry. Those new in the industry has to study history to flourish or perish at their ignorance.

You know, most times I don't really blame the newbies, you've gat to estimate the level of negative hype bitcoin receives when it enters a bear season, many people use that opportunity to spread false comments about bitcoin on various platforms and these newbies without experience even begin to question what they have learned and read about it. It only takes when they see it play out live and bitcoin recovers and makes an ATH do they fully understand the bitcoin cycles. I only go on to blame those of them who still panic in the next cycles, its more like they never learned anything even after experiencing it first hand.

The bear cycle would always come and those who really understand bitcoin would always seize the opportunity to buy the dips without any atom of worry.

[BlackBoss_]

You know, most times I don't really blame the newbies, you've gat to estimate the level of negative hype bitcoin receives when it enters a bear season, many people use that opportunity to spread false comments about bitcoin on various platforms and these newbies without experience even begin to question what they have learned and read about it.

It does not sound like all people who talk negatively about Bitcoin in a bear market actually intentionally doing this. Except if they are market makers who set up and play the game against the majority of market participants, they will belong to most of people in the market who lack of knowledge, experience or have these things but are bad at control their emotion and response in most volatile and negative time and movements of the market.

Only market makers intentionally and proactively spread false information about Bitcoin in bear market while the others simply naturally responses with their actual emotion, thinking and actions. The second type of people don't spread false information but they simply spread what they think as it is truly happening.

It only takes when they see it play out live and bitcoin recovers and makes an ATH do they fully understand the bitcoin cycles. I only go on to blame those of them who still panic in the next cycles, its more like they never learned anything even after experiencing it first hand.

The bear cycle would always come and those who really understand bitcoin would always seize the opportunity to buy the dips without any atom of worry.

The bear market is very negative, boring and stressful with most people as they possibly suffer losses too so it's hard to go through a bear market well while they won't lose their strong hands, and panic sell their bitcoins or worse they might be liquidated if doing stupid dangerous things like margin trading or futures trading with leverages or high ones.

[Asiska02]

From these, we are currently in a cycle testing phase again in 2026, no need to panic. They call it "a crash" but I call it the Accumulation Zone. Bitcoin was built for the storm, it shall survive as before. The collective precious hands called the community will make sure of that.

Anyone that has linger here for the past two or more cycles should have gotten use to this, bitcoin is not going to die and will continue to grow regardless of how many times it has fallen as a result of market conditions, or external forces that can directly affect the price of the market. When it happens the first time, it can be said to be a mistake, the second time would be called a luck but since it has happened for the third time, we can now call it a series, that’s a repetitive something henceforth.

The four year cycle suggests the market to be on the bear cycle now and investors should take advantage of this fall in the market to accumulate more bitcoin. Bitcoin will rise again after this period, it’s just obeying its cycle and your investment will be protected as usual, beating the current all time high to create another new one soon.

[melinoe]

Now is the time to buy more bitcoin.

Damn right it is. Keep these bags filled

[BlackHatCoiner]

So which one was the worst?

Except that market cap is a completely meaningless metric? There are no 20 million BTC in $66000 asks. There are a few million dollars worth of bitcoin at ~$66000, and then at $60k, $55k etc.

I just noticed that each drop the percentage between the ATH and the floor decreases each cycle. Based on that, Bitcoin each cycle gets more stable and less volatile, although as the market cap increases, the bigger the drop number looks.

The reason this probably happens is because of liquidity. There are a lot more money in bids and asks than there were in 2014, 2018 and 2022. So it requires a lot more money to claim the bids and rise the price, or to claim the asks and dip it.  

[Franctoshi]

From the technical analysis point of view, there's nothing scary about the price if you understand price action very well, you can read into the future to see the potential price movement. I already I predicted 60k when know one has thought of it and the price was even at 98k, I said that the price was going to 60k, so nothing looks scary when you have technical skills, there's no storm yet  if you were around during the Luna and FTX collapses, I personally thought that Bitcoin would have reached 10k because of then sell pressure.

[EarnOnVictor]

No doubt, Bitcoin WILL fall, and another thing that is not to be doubted is that, it is TIME LIMITED, so, no one should panic more than necessary. And as you've rightly interated and explained above, I don't have a single disagreement, other than we should still wait. Patience is key at this time, who knows the bottom Bitcoin will hit before going up again? That's where smart investing comes in.

In other words, Bitcoin will surely rise back, as before, but the time, no one knows, which is a good reason to be conservative now, rather than use aggressive approach.

[henry_of_skalitz]

No doubt, Bitcoin WILL fall, and another thing that is not to be doubted is that, it is TIME LIMITED, so, no one should panic more than necessary. And as you've rightly interated and explained above, I don't have a single disagreement, other than we should still wait. Patience is key at this time, who knows the bottom Bitcoin will hit before going up again? That's where smart investing comes in.

In other words, Bitcoin will surely rise back, as before, but the time, no one knows, which is a good reason to be conservative now, rather than use aggressive approach.

Red is always changed with green, and vice versa.
Market is just like an eco that changes seasons - cycles can't be having one narrative and movement forever.

[Furball808]

The Cycle Doesn't Lie:
What many don't know or don't want to admit is that Bitcoin moves in seasons. We’ve seen this script played before now.

• Cycle Peaks: Euphoria and new ATHs (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025).
  
• Cycle Bottoms: 2014, 2018, 2022. Optimism were almost dead.
  
• Next Bottom/Peak: Hopefully 2026/2029
  

People have been informed of this many times I sometimes feel that they just do not want to acknowledge it. I get it sometimes because theory is different from the actualization of events. Reading about dumps you never experienced is easy but experiencing those dumps with your own money on the line might make one feel differently. Holding bitcoin is more of a mental fight because you have to fight all the FUD.