Bitcoin Will Survive This Storm. Lesson from the 4-Year Cycle

[TedMosby]

I’m curious what kind of catalyst or narrative could spark the next bullish wave.
It’s probably something unexpected.
And honestly, I’m a bit worried it might be something scary, like a mini economic collapse.

CMIIW, but aside from the Bitcoin halving, here are some catalysts or narratives that have previously pushed BTC higher.

2012–2013

• Early adoption & exchange growth (Mt. Gox, rising media interest).

2016–2017

• Retail participation surge.
• ICO boom fueled market euphoria.

2020–2021

• Institutional interest increases (MicroStrategy accumulation).
• Tesla buys $1.5B BTC.
• Elon Musk adds "#bitcoin" to bio. The Doge meme as well.
• Tesla/BTC acceptance narrative boosts sentiment.

2022–2023

• Macro pressure (rate hikes, liquidity tightening).

2024

• US Spot Bitcoin ETF approval (Jan 2024).
• Launch of regulated spot ETFs.
• Strong ETF inflows drive new demand.

2025

• Continued institutional ETF inflows.
• Corporate treasury buys (e.g., MicroStrategy & others).
• Macro catalysts (rate cuts & liquidity expansion).

[Kelward]

Everybody is free to have their own opinions about Bitcoin either good or bad it doesn't change what it is and the capacities that it has to always reach ATH, from it's time of creation despite criticisms it has always proven it's haters wrong. I'm not expecting anything different this time around I believe that history will repeat itself when it begins to rally to a new ATH. Dip shouldn't be a time to panic and selloff it's a time to accumulate more and patiently wait for it to repeat what has been experienced over times in the past. Unless everybody decides to selloff all their Bitcoin at the same time and nobody is willing to buy which is quite impossible then I don't see why Bitcoin will crash to the level that it cannot rise to reach a new ATH.

[Zanab247]

You can only experience a deep worry from newbies whenever the price of BTC is dumping when investors are expecting bull run. For those that have potential knowledge of bear season they will not panic than to apply courage not to be move to sell BTC in the bear market. I was in that shoe before thinking BTC price will continue to dump until it disappear from the market, and when I understand how the Market move I don't have anything to worry whenever am hodling small BTC or big BTC, because I know bull market will surely come to stay.

Well, is good to learn from your mistakes or other people mistakes so that you will not experience losses again, because I know how painful losses can cause some BTC investors. Anything you lose in your investment it will not come back to you than to start employing some new tactics that will help you to recover your losse in the future.

[Hewlet]

...because I see Bitcoin market not as a regular market, but as rare resilience. This Storm is just another chapter similar to the past, it can't be the final. Learn from them and start planning to buy big when you start seeing a similar pattern of 2014, 2018 and 2022.

Truth is that if you are going to call yourself a real bitcoin investor, you should be ready to face everything that comes with investing in bitcoin and that includes enduring during the DIP knowing fully well that it is going to last only for a season. At the end of this bear, different people are going to learn different lessons and while some will regret acting a certain way like selling because of fear, the few resilient investors will look back and be grateful they stood strong and did not sell because of pressure.

In times like this, we get to separate real enthusiast from those that are just following after trend and lack the real balls that keeps one invested even at times that the market is actually down. bitcoin is not for everyone and profitability is as well not for everyone.

[Tamedbeast]

Only newbies and beginners will find this topic funny, because they were never here in those past years, I was here and I have gotten used to price declining, and if price doesn't go down I believe Bitcoin will be less attractive.

Volatility is buying power, it makes Bitcoin to look for attractive, and while people are avoiding to buy Bitcoin right now is the best time to start buying, history have proven this too many times, when people are packing their loads and exiting the market is when you should buy.

[Call_Me_Guru]

People are running away right now thinking it is dying again and years from now Bitcoin will double, triple or what ever it will do and people will spam the Forum again with Topics about being too late, never being able to accumulate Bitcoin at that price et cetera.

Yeah, very true.

But I don't have problem with people running now, but they should not call Bitcoin names or believe it is "Over." No, it's just starting.

They may run a little to preserve their BTC's value, but should stay close and watch. In situations like this, the strong-hearted will forever HODL their BTC, unfortunately, the class are not many, that's a fact. The faint-hearted must surely panic. The encourage is for them not to panic but stay close and see every drop as the buying opportunities (Accumulation Zones). Ignoring it is another future regret. Bitcoin has never failed!

[Versatile_choice]

Definitely it will survive this storm it's just a matter of time, and we also need to stay positive because there are alot of rumours going on and on in the media lately regarding bitcoin telling people to be extremely careful about it that sooner or later that it will crash, but I'm not really surprised to hear them saying all of that because I know people would surely look for something to say considering how dip the price have gone but I'm not even bothered about that because it's a normal thing so we ought to stay positive and don't listen to side talks as bitcoin will surely bounce back.

[RockBell]

Everybody is free to have their own opinions about Bitcoin either good or bad it doesn't change what it is and the capacities that it has to always reach ATH, from it's time of creation despite criticisms it has always proven it's haters wrong. I'm not expecting anything different this time around I believe that history will repeat itself when it begins to rally to a new ATH. Dip shouldn't be a time to panic and selloff it's a time to accumulate more and patiently wait for it to repeat what has been experienced over times in the past. Unless everybody decides to selloff all their Bitcoin at the same time and nobody is willing to buy which is quite impossible then I don't see why Bitcoin will crash to the level that it cannot rise to reach a new ATH.

And one of the best experiences is when no matter what it might be your target still states that you will buy and hold no matter what they are saying about bitcoin they have been a lot of argument and it did not start today but despite that people still invested and in fact when ever the price is coming down that is when you see all manner of comments just to see if they will be able to discourage people from investing. And every time this happens the market will just make a magic return and even record a new ATH which is something that have been happening for years now and just because of how people failed to wait they missed the opportunity to make profit.

There people that will learn and there are people that still will not learn so we should allow everyone to choose which ever part they want to choose, everyone with there own drama when it comes, and the only thing is that you don't force people to invest they should make there own decisions about investing, because from the look things people need to be allowed to make there own decisions.

[AmoreJaz]

Definitely it will survive this storm it's just a matter of time, and we also need to stay positive because there are alot of rumours going on and on in the media lately regarding bitcoin telling people to be extremely careful about it that sooner or later that it will crash, but I'm not really surprised to hear them saying all of that because I know people would surely look for something to say considering how dip the price have gone but I'm not even bothered about that because it's a normal thing so we ought to stay positive and don't listen to side talks as bitcoin will surely bounce back.

If you've been here long enough in this market, you won't panic as you already know the drill. It is your time to possibly accumulate more satoshis. Remember, people are always asking when will btc will be cheaper. And now,  it is the opportunity to get more.

[summonerrk]

Bitcoin will easily survive, it's just a matter of waiting, but in general, I have these thoughts:
The number of holders in the crypto market is growing not by conviction, but by circumstances.
 At first, the 5x5 goal seems modest, then the 10x10 goal seems logical, then the 20x20 goal is "paying for risk" , then the 50x50 goal is "paying for risk and patience".
 The profit is already in the account, but +80%, but this is too too little, it's too early to sell, because the real growth is still ahead. As a result, we get minus 80% of the input.
And now we convince ourselves that the holding company's strategy is the best in the crypto market. And this pattern repeats regularly. Greed is also a strategy, just with a very long retention period and zero return. Cycles change, narratives are updated, logos are repainted, and most become long-term investors exactly at the moment when they stop being traders.

[Call_Me_Guru]

I’m curious what kind of catalyst or narrative could spark the next bullish wave.

Your curiosity is genuine, everything looks dead in the future, I get. Have you thought about the past when everything looked dead in the future? Suddenly events came in which lift BTC. That will happen again.
 
Few possibilities: The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve race has not been strong, what if US and many countries that follows its footsteps are waiting for what they can call the bottom? That time, it will be competition of who can Buy more and how fast. Watch out!

Companies are beginning to see bitcoin as an asset than liability, the only problem they have is buying cheap. You don't know what would happen when they are satisfied with the low.

Trump headlines and actions is another thing to look into. You know he will be planning to leave at a point, being a crypto creator and investor, he may do something that will help the space in his last in the office.

[stompix]

So which one was the worst?

Except that market cap is a completely meaningless metric? There are no 20 million BTC in $66000 asks. There are a few million dollars worth of bitcoin at ~$66000, and then at $60k, $55k etc.

Just like the drop from 125k to 60k is meaningless for some because nobody owns exactly one Bitcoin!
Funny how I don't see you making the point of where the money is invested and how during a bullrun but every damn time in the last 4 years you go to this extreme in a defensive position trying to minimize facts that I can't help thinking you're sold your grandchildren and went long wiht that money otherwise I don't understand the fierceness of contesting facts!

Back in 2017, I was down a brand new car on my BTC holdings, nowadays I'm down...god I don't even want to make the math
Do you think I care that 57% is less than 69%?

[BlackHatCoiner]

And honestly, I’m a bit worried it might be something scary, like a mini economic collapse.

US strategic reserve, other countries adopting friendlier legislation, US adopting more protectionist policies, losing the US dollar dominance and eventually resulting in US dollar hyperinflation.

Funny how I don't see you making the point of where the money is invested and how during a bullrun but every damn time in the last 4 years you go to this extreme in a defensive position trying to minimize facts that I can't help thinking you're sold your grandchildren and went long wiht that money otherwise I don't understand the fierceness of contesting facts!

I'm going to be honest with you. I didn't understand a slight thing from this sentence. I only said that the market cap is meaningless.

[qwertyup23]

Everybody is free to have their own opinions about Bitcoin either good or bad it doesn't change what it is and the capacities that it has to always reach ATH, from it's time of creation despite criticisms it has always proven it's haters wrong. I'm not expecting anything different this time around I believe that history will repeat itself when it begins to rally to a new ATH. Dip shouldn't be a time to panic and selloff it's a time to accumulate more and patiently wait for it to repeat what has been experienced over times in the past. Unless everybody decides to selloff all their Bitcoin at the same time and nobody is willing to buy which is quite impossible then I don't see why Bitcoin will crash to the level that it cannot rise to reach a new ATH.

Instead of seeing this dip as a negative thing, people should take advantage of this by purchasing more in the process.

The problem with the overall view and perspective in BTC investment are the beginners and newbies in this space. They tend to invest based on the decision of others. To put it simply- they invested because they were riding the hype without doing any proper research by themselves.

From what I observed in the past years ever since I joined this forum, beginners who invest early in BTC are the same ones who quickly sell their coins as soon as they see the price dip. Additionally, they are also the ones spreading false information and fake news, stating that BTC is a bubble, etc.

[stompix]

Funny how I don't see you making the point of where the money is invested and how during a bullrun but every damn time in the last 4 years you go to this extreme in a defensive position trying to minimize facts that I can't help thinking you're sold your grandchildren and went long wiht that money otherwise I don't understand the fierceness of contesting facts!

I'm going to be honest with you. I didn't understand a slight thing from this sentence. I only said that the market cap is meaningless.

Exactly my f point!
Now, in a bear marketcap is meaningless, when you wanted to brag about possible gains, you were suddenly talking in hundreds in trillions in marketcap, should I remind you?

We're talking about the same bitcoin, right? The one that has an addressable market cap of $300 trillion, and which has done a 20x since Covid?

Do I need to make it simpler?
- bull run, oh much wow, such huge, marketcap grow, marketcap beyond
- bear season, market cap meaningless, such no wow, much no meaning!
Got it?
Serious question, what happened lately that you went full nuts on everything, not to mention the last topics...my god...no!

[BlackHatCoiner]

Now, in a bear marketcap is meaningless, when you wanted to brag about possible gains, you were suddenly talking in hundreds in trillions in marketcap, should I remind you?

Okay, since I've been completely misunderstood, let me clarify:

• Market cap, the term, means how much current holders valuate the entire coins in circulation. The term is not meaningless in itself. The statement that "Bitcoin has an addressable market cap of $300+ trillion" means that eventually, people are going to wake up to the reality that bitcoin is better to store value than bonds, gold, real estate etc., and are going to convert their cash balances to it.
• Market cap fluctuations, over the short term, don't provide any tangible, meaningful information, at least in my opinion. If someone buys or sells $100 million worth of bitcoin, the market cap can go various ways, depending on the market depth. So, temporarily, it can go 10% up or down. I just don't see how this information is useful. It does not reveal how much money left or entered the system.

Serious question, what happened lately that you went full nuts on everything, not to mention the last topics...my god...no!

They are a work of art.