"$55,000 will be Bitcoin's make-or-break level"

[Puzzled_bystander]

An interesting piece, from which I have quoted a few key lines. It highlights the growing stress this asset is coming under from a fundamental investment psychology perspective.

While the very last sentence strikes me as overly dramatic, I do think that a plunge below the level outlined by the author would set off a sequence of panic sales and wreck confidence for many years to come.

Some hopium: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57s9160yLgs





$55,000 will be Bitcoin's make-or-break level


https://en.theblockbeats.news/news/61232

Last week, the price of Bitcoin briefly touched $60,000. Under the stock-to-flow model, this is far from mere noise. The market is touching the most fragile part of the entire four-year cycle and the logarithmic growth curve.

When the rally at the top of the Bitcoin cycle has already been significantly compressed, if a historically deep pullback occurs once again, the classic cycle's allure will be completely nullified.

...
From a technical perspective, the mid-$55,000 range has strong structural support, including: 3000-Day Trendline (Spanning Over 8 Years), 2022 VWAP of Cycle Low, Extension of Support from Previous Cycle's All-Time High ($69,000)

...

$55,000 is the Key Line Between Life and Death


If Bitcoin drops to $55,000, two key signals will emerge:


· A retracement of 56%, far beyond the 44% allowable upper limit


· The bottom price will be 20% below the previous all-time high ($69,000)


If the price continues to stay below $55,000, it means the market acknowledges that in a weak cycle with only a 1.8x increase, the cycle's bottom can be significantly below the previous all-time high.


The subsequent impact will be that if the next cycle still maintains a 1.8x multiple, the Bitcoin price will rise from $55,000 to $99,000. The long-term growth trajectory will stall. This is essentially a structural failure of the growth model, and the market must make a change.



Let's consider: Why would an asset built on the belief of "long-term ultra-high returns" break below this multi-year accumulation of triple structural support? Especially when convenient investment vehicles like ETFs have already been established, this kind of movement is in complete contradiction to the long-term growth trajectory.

...

The Cliff of Risk-Adjusted Returns


This contradiction has made the entire Bitcoin cycle logic binary: If the peak multiple of the cycle continues to shrink while the pullback magnitude does not decrease proportionally, Bitcoin's risk-return ratio will deteriorate completely:


Conclusion


Bitcoin cannot simultaneously maintain two traits in the long run: a low-growth asset and a high drawdown asset. If risk-adjusted returns still make sense, the two cannot coexist in the long term.

With Bitcoin currently touching near $60,000, the market is real-time testing this life-or-death boundary. Once the price falls below the $50,000 range, all debates will cease, and the market will provide the final verdict, either heading for glory or plunging into destruction.

[Darker45]

Congratulations, ma'am/sir or to whoever this is coming from, you've fulfilled the prophecy!

It was predicted years ago that time will come Bitcoin would soar beyond $100,000 and would drop to $60,000 and people would still talk about "make-or-break", "life-or-death", "plunging into destruction", and so on.

Years from now, Bitcoin would hit $1,000,000 and corrects all the way to $300,000, and you would still panic about its impending death.

You're indeed a Puzzled_bystander, my friend!

[OgNasty]

Remember when @bitcoin posted on x $46,000 when it became clear we were on the way down and then deleted it?

I don’t think $55K is a make or break level. I think it is inevitable that it will be broken. When it does, I would recommend buying lots over the few months that it stays below that level.

[philipma1957]

I think the repetition of boom and bust back to boom must stop.

If not btc will simply be not very desirable item.

So the boom bust boom bust can end with

Boom go flat go boom

Or bust go flat go bust.

Time will tell

[pooya87]

Another way of seeing how bitcoin adoption has been growing and how the price has and will constantly be rising is to look at all the doomsday price predictions that are also raising their price levels

A couple of years ago like in 2017 when people were crying about price being "too high" at $5k who would have thought that some day people would cry about $50k...

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Last week, the price of Bitcoin briefly touched $60,000. Under the stock-to-flow model, this is far from mere noise.

I see many arguments, but this one debunks itself. The S2F model has been outdated for some time. You don't hear about it because it predicted a much higher price years ago, when the previous cycle's return was lower than predicted by the model, and neither the negative return of 2025 nor the start of 2026 fit the model. The author does not persist with his argument, adding lines below to make it supposedly fit.

The price of bitcoin could fall to $50,000 or $40,000 and then rise again without any problems. No matter what any sophisticated model says about it.

[SilverCryptoBullet]

Another way of seeing how bitcoin adoption has been growing and how the price has and will constantly be rising is to look at all the doomsday price predictions that are also raising their price levels

A couple of years ago like in 2017 when people were crying about price being "too high" at $5k who would have thought that some day people would cry about $50k...

Two years ago, price of Bitcoin was below $50,000 and people felt amazing when it broke $50,000 but now they are very fearful with Bitcoin price is a little bit under $70,000. Days ago the Fear and Greed Index dropped to only 5, a super super fear index ever happened with Bitcoin market.

People pay attention on daily price, changes day by day but they ignore a fact that Bitcoin value, adoption and price have all developed and grown up a lot since 2009.
https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/yearly-candles

With yearly candles, they can see the general price growth better, and they can see it in lowest prices over years to recognize the growth more easily.

They can feel about the Bitcoin adoption, survival strength and growth with Bitcoin is dead  number of calls fell a lot with time.
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

[Alpha Marine]

Here we go again. The "life or death" of Bitcoin comes again.
There is no price that Bitcoin will get to that it would be able to come back from. It may only take a bit more time. Even at $10k, it still would not be the end of Bitcoin. Everybody is not going to lock shop and say I would no longer buy or hold Bitcoin again simply because its price has dipped below $50k.
Bitcoin has fallen from $69k to $16k before, and it still survived and grew above $120k, so there will be no make-or-break price.
Soon, the "bitcoin is dead this time around" people will start with their own articles.

[Oshosondy]

Years from now, Bitcoin would hit $1,000,000 and corrects all the way to $300,000, and you would still panic about its impending death.

It will not be good for the market at all, but with my predictions, the time that bitcoin gets to $1 million, bitcoin is no more going back to $300000.

This time, bitcoin has not gone below 2.1x when it got to $60000 few days ago. If the price get to $50000, that is still 2.5x fall which still shows reducing volatility as the time is going. In the next more than a 10 year journey that bitcoin will get to $1 million, it can not see 3.33x fall.

[Dave1]

Here we go again. The "life or death" of Bitcoin comes again.
There is no price that Bitcoin will get to that it would be able to come back from. It may only take a bit more time. Even at $10k, it still would not be the end of Bitcoin. Everybody is not going to lock shop and say I would no longer buy or hold Bitcoin again simply because its price has dipped below $50k.
Bitcoin has fallen from $69k to $16k before, and it still survived and grew above $120k, so there will be no make-or-break price.
Soon, the "bitcoin is dead this time around" people will start with their own articles.

It's just repetitive as the market is in a cycle. And every cycle, we will find this so called life and death since most of what's left here from 2017 era. So majority knows what's coming already, whether is going to be $55k or lower.

But then again, after that, we will go up again and this time, we might reach $200k or more in the next bull run cycle. So I wouldn't be concern on what we are seeing right now. On the contrary if there is something that will be positive from this bearish trend is to buy as much as we can and hold and wait for the next bull run.

[Puzzled_bystander]

I dont think the author is saying that as a technical system, Bitcoin will fail because of price crashes.

The point he is trying to make is that if returns continue to diminish at the current rate, Bitcoin's attractiveness for investment-purposes will take another severe hit, which might severely impact investors psychology and trust at when certain crucial price levels are breached.

Slow growth and high "downward" volatility are not a good combination, at least not for people who want to buy or stack and hold, and periodically cash out. In that respect, I agree with the author.

Hopefully, the latest drawdown will come to a halt soon. It would be a positive sign to note that bearmarkets are becoming progressively shorter and less severe.
If that trend persists and is noted more broadly, I could see how surprises to the upside, for lack of a better term, could materialise once again.

[Knight Hider]

I think the repetition of boom and bust back to boom must stop.

If not btc will simply be not very desirable item.

Boom bust is what makes bitcoin attractive for traders. 'Only' 200% boom and 50% bust and no longer 1000% boom and 90% bust means bitcoin is growing.

[Awaklara]

With Bitcoin currently touching near $60,000, the market is real-time testing this life-or-death boundary. Once the price falls below the $50,000 range, all debates will cease, and the market will provide the final verdict, either heading for glory or plunging into destruction.

Does that mean if Bitcoin drops below $50k, this market won't recover? It's very likely that we'll drop close to $50k in the current situation. I know the situation will be quite complicated for those who bought Bitcoin at a high price some time ago. Surely, some will be frustrated with Bitcoin's current price because, clearly the value they invested has dropped significantly. But I still believe the market won't stay in a bear situation forever.

[khiholangkang]

I think the repetition of boom and bust back to boom must stop.

If not btc will simply be not very desirable item.

Boom bust is what makes bitcoin attractive for traders. 'Only' 200% boom and 50% bust and no longer 1000% boom and 90% bust means bitcoin is growing.

This cycle is our friend so don't let it go, positive growth from continuous increases and price drops that are not more than the amount of increases indicate large-scale growth each cycle, this is an opportunity for anyone to build wealth with bitcoin, if there is no price drop how can you get more than 100% profit in 4 years with historically proven guarantees, continue to collect bitcoin if the price is lower than the target risk calculation of each investment in bitcoin.