Higher lows on higher RSI timeframes incoming?

[Puzzled_bystander]

The price continues to stubbornly hover around 67K, despite a dump at US open yesterday. I am expecting another such attempt to bring it down today. By and large, though, it looks as if an equilibrium has emerged and that for the time being, sellers and bearish shorters are largely exhausted at these levels.

It looks as if the market agrees that in the absence of major bad news, capitulation has essentially occurred and that there is no potential for a push below the high 50s.

Regardless of whether or not we will see lower lows in the price over the coming days, I expect to see higher lows printed on the 12h, 1d and 3d RSI (If we do get a lower bottom, I understand this would constitute a bullish divergence.) Though it is still very early, and much hinges on macro developments, higher lows on higher timeframe RSIs could tentatively foreshadow a trend reversal.

[Oshosondy]

I think you will be right if bitcoin price of $60000 is the low that you are referring to. I also think bitcoin will not get below that price for now but we do not know what can later happening. But for now in a short period of time, bitcoin is not going below $60000.

Higher low can indicate a shift towards the uptrend but I do not know if this will be what that would happen.

[Puzzled_bystander]

I think you will be right if bitcoin price of $60000 is the low that you are referring to. I also think bitcoin will not get below that price for now but we do not know what can later happening. But for now in a short period of time, bitcoin is not going below $60000.

Higher low can indicate a shift towards the uptrend but I do not know if this will be what that would happen.

On very low timeframes, e. g. 15 and 30 min, I am under the impression of seeing some signs of life and more specifically the return of multiple green candles in a row  (currently ten 15 min green candles), though admittedly volumes are very low.

However, I do expect shorters and price dumping to return at US market opening. Let's see how far down they can push the price this time round.

[Puzzled_bystander]

I have just checked the monthly RSI, using this chart dating all the way back to 2010:

https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/

Except for five readings, which were all printed during the protracted 2022-2023 bear market infamous for the Luna and FTX debacles, the monthly RSI, which is currently at 41.29, has never been this low.

Does that mean it cannot fall further? No, but what this does show IMHO is that the further downside potential seems very limited by historical standards.

The worst part of the descent is most probably behind us. If we haven't hit the bottom yet, we are likely in the final stages of bottoming - in the absence of major negative events affecting the macro environment or the entire sector.