I want to tell you that after reaching an all-time high price, and after the massive collapse of the BTC market due to Epstein and other growing geopolitical chaos, it is not easy to predict when the price of Bitcoin will reach $200k, to be honest, there is huge volatility at the moment. Actually we have been watching this closely, since the price of this coin recorded a new ATH of 126k in October last year but it has crashed by almost 50%. However if you bought a lot of Bitcoin in 2022 with $20k, then notice that it has reached very highs in a few years, so it is conceivable that you will have to wait until the fifth/6 Bitcoin halving to add a 10x gain to your investment portfolio.
You are right to assume that it will not recover and go back and hit 200k anytime soon. You are wrong on the reasons you listed, it is not about anything on the news, it is because of the historical pattern and denying that will hurt you in the future, because if it was last year, even Epstein or chaos wouldn't change.
Let me put it this way, in 2021 it went up even though there were bunch of wars happening all around the world and pandemic was going on, because that is what it does, so know the exact times of the patterns and you will be fine. Every 4 years we have halving, one year after halving is when it peaks, two years after halving is when it bottoms. Know this, and no amount of news will matter for you when you invest.