Though I am not a great fan of following Youtubers and their predictions, I must say to their credit that both "Cilinix Crypto" and "Bitcoin Hyper" were correct in persistently arguing that a local bottom was in after the massive dump on February 5, and that the probability of a push upwards seemed greater than the possibility of forming a new low.
Disclaimer:
These are entirely speculative musings, purely for the fun of it. I am no trader, no technical analyst and
this does not constitute financial advise. Please do not base important financial decisions on my uneducated banter.
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Monthly RSI: The monthly RSI has moved a notch higher as a result of yesterday's surge. It now stands at 42.46, which places it above the seven readings that were registered between June and December 2022.
We are still however below the lowest reading of the 2011 and all save one single reading of the 2013 and the 2017 bear markets, respectively.
This long-term chart with its lower highs and lower lows had me worried for many years, in the context of the discussion about diminishing returns. A new all-time low on the monthly RSI would have been a rather ominous sign, IMHO. It is thus encouraging to see that the monthly RSI is what seems to finally be some strength, albeit at the low end of the chart, for the time being.
https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/-
Weekly RSI: The weekly indicator has flatened and now stands at 29, if I am reading this correctly. Technically, it is thus still oversold at under 30. We are still well below Covid-crash levels and just marginally above the lowest readings that were printed during the 2018/2019 crash. In late 2022, the weekly RSI crashed to 26.8 and remained there for about 14 days.
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3d RSI: This indictor is now exhibiting a sharp upward break through the 30 (oversold) level, starting from a (insignificant?) higher low at 31 on Feb 9.
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1d RSI: The same pattern can be seen more clearly on this timeframe. A higher low, which landed almost exactly at 30, was put in on Feb 12. From there, it sprung upwards to now 37.9
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12h RSI: Here we have an upwick to above 30, followed be a choppy band, which served as launchpad further upward movement to currently ca. 45.3.
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6h RSI: The 6h is above 50 and is close to exceeding the local high seen in late January. A break-through at this level would invalidate the downtrend of the indicator that started after the short-lived local price high around 97K.
https://www.bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/binance/btcusdt ("Settings" -> "RSI")
Yesterday's surge appears to have taken place amid descending volumes (6h, 12h, 1d), which may or may not have to do with the week-end. For a powerful continuation further up, I guess we would usually require higher trading volumes. Even so, the fact that the rally happend against the backdrop of a temporarily rising volatility index, and signs of weakness in the stock market, might be seen as somewhat encouraging.
Interestingly, the fear and greed index (I have looked at the one at alternative.me) is still sitting in "extreme fear" territory at 9. This might indicate that the market has its doubts about the strength of yesterday's rally.
While this could indicate a lack of conviction and follow-through, contrarians might argue that the reading can be viewed as disbelief before an impending continuation of the recovery.
It seems safe to say that a new cycle low has been averted for the time being, in the absence of strongly negative news pertaining to either the sector (e.g. major exchange collapse, etc.) as a whole or the broader macro environment.
IMHO, a quick drop down to 50K, after what was already a 0.05 percent chance event on Feb 5, seems very unlikely in the short term. It will be interesting to see is whether price will falter back into the range that we exited on the 4h and 6h charts, and whether it can conclusively pierce through the considerable resistance around 70700ish over the coming days. Looking at low timeframe RSI, I am sensing that we are oversold and are likely to drop back into said zone again.
Looking back over the entire chart on the 1w timeframe, our last two price candles, as they
stand at the moment and time of writing, look most reminiscent to the two bullish pin bars that were printed during the Covid crash. Having said that, I am aware that except for the Covid crash, the price has during the last three bear markets dipped below the 200 wma and remained in that zone for a while, before a reversal became apparent.
