Humans are bad at predicting things especially crypto prices.

[shinratensei_]

CZ has always been like that, throwing around predictions. Yet his point still stands and bitcoin could be going up again in unforeseeable future. We're not even past Q1 of 2026 and the supercycle could be in Q3 or Q4. Until we've gone past the predicted timeframe, the prediction is not yet invalid.

[dansus021]

that is why I trade futures and perps on perpmate for sake of fun sometimes it works sometimes it does not,

hahahha damn true  perp trade is for fun only in my opinion and yes sometimes it works sometimes dont and I hate to say that I am addicting to it :').

But hey even AI is bad at predicting because nobody can predict the future accurately we human or AI only use past data to predict the future and in some cases it does work and sometime isnt. Market is dynamic and keep changing.

Only president of U.S. can probably predict the price correctly, I mean not exact value but if its gonna go up or down in next minutes or hours, especially based on what he says or does.

hahahahhahahahah I do agree at this point if you are US president or the FED you can know where the market goes

[Ishicryptic]

The crypto market is volatile therefore highly unpredictable, it is not like other stable markets where you can easily predict what will happen in the market so if an experienced person in the crypto industry like CZ can get it wrong it means you should be skeptical about crypto predictions. Any analysis about the market no matter where it is coming from you should take it as speculations that is something may or may not happen as predicted. Humans are not totally wrong or bad about crypto predictions sometimes it happens but the truth is that the person that is predicting is not even certain that it can be correct Trading is risky so trade with caution, don't be overconfident and don't rely all your trusts on technical analysis, if you are an investor hold Bitcoin for the long term and don't worry about monitoring the market.

[Mpamaegbu]

I just want to pour little honest wine here, because humans are really bad at predicting things, anything I predicted or others did was always wrong we just simply cant see the future,

That's why we're humans, and not divine. It takes divinity to point out things accurately because divinity is all–knowing. Prediction is different. It's speculation and that's what it's. Nobody expects it to be 100% correct. If a prediction is accurate then we might as well say it's a stroke of luck.

...sometimes I do make money in a way I say to myself I think BTC will go up then I think in reverse, yeah let me short it then and it eventually goes down.

Well, if it works that way for you; consider it a winning strategy then. You may want to explore it more.

[AGogi2003]

The crypto market is volatile therefore highly unpredictable, it is not like other stable markets where you can easily predict what will happen in the market so if an experienced person in the crypto industry like CZ can get it wrong it means you should be skeptical about crypto predictions. Any analysis about the market no matter where it is coming from you should take it as speculations that is something may or may not happen as predicted. Humans are not totally wrong or bad about crypto predictions sometimes it happens but the truth is that the person that is predicting is not even certain that it can be correct Trading is risky so trade with caution, don't be overconfident and don't rely all your trusts on technical analysis, if you are an investor hold Bitcoin for the long term and don't worry about monitoring the market.

The crypto market will always unpredictable know one can predict the market is just for you to risk what you can afford to lose that why you can invest any amount you can risk in crypto. We always have to option in crypto you should invest or trade anyone you think he can probably favour you pass you can do it and be profitable. But everyone will definitely advise you to invest then trading anyone you do you can get huge profit but invest can minimise your risk an still make you get profit, and if is trading he minimise risk by using risk management when you're trading but still he can't give you full support that you won't lose is unpredictable and is easy to lose everything in trading without getting anything returned. But bitcoin investment can showly give you profit even is not that much.

[summonerrk]

Sometimes it is very interesting to try to understand the logic of the market.So recently, I tried to understand the very meaning of this predictable price movement by testing levels. Why does it linger after reaching the previous peak, and often forms support? And more than once.
After all, if there is such a movement and it is always observed, it means that the same patterns of behavior of different strata of market participants are constantly triggered. Take, for example, when the price stops at the previous maximum:
I came to the conclusion that those who bought on it are sitting at a loss after the fall, and plan to go at least to zero when the price returns to their entry point into the market. And many such traders and investors tend to immediately sell at the same level as soon as this price is reached. And the more large-scale people among them, the more likely this scenario is. Because of this, the price is usually delayed reaching this peak (sometimes ATH) for the second time, and the third, etc.

[Gozie51]

and just want to be honest about it, sometimes I do make money in a way I say to myself I think BTC will go up then I think in reverse, yeah let me short it then and it eventually goes down.

You don't have to believe that trading is just to wake up and short a trade or buy, you have to look at the chart and predict the outcome of the market before going in. You can be lucky to short and then it is successful, most of the time it is technical analysis that you need for your prediction. But you also need to know that all predictions are not accurate because in real sense you can not predict the future and that is why stop loss is provided so that you don't lose all your capital at once when your prediction go wrong. Crypto is unpredictable and that fact that it is not regulated makes it a highly volatile market, you need discipline and risk management to be a profitable trader.

[reagansimms]

It is for this reason that I often hear "humans are very bad at predicting the future," especially regarding highly volatile crypto assets. This is why you should not rely on anyone's predictions and also don't be too confident in your own predictions. Choosing a safe point is the best strategy, that's why I never care about anyone's predictions anymore. Using the DCA strategy and accumulating Bitcoin periodically is much more effective and makes me feel more comfortable without having to fear any risks.

[uneng]

Crypto has always been an unpredictable market. The only prediction which have been working here is regards the halving event, as it always impacted Bitcoin, and the crypto market in general as consequence, in a very positive way. But that is a long term prediction. The problem is that investors and speculators are looking for short term predictions to make quick and constant profit in a daily basis, which is just not feasible in a realistic way.

[WatChe]

It is for this reason that I often hear "humans are very bad at predicting the future," especially regarding highly volatile crypto assets. This is why you should not rely on anyone's predictions and also don't be too confident in your own predictions. Choosing a safe point is the best strategy, that's why I never care about anyone's predictions anymore. Using the DCA strategy and accumulating Bitcoin periodically is much more effective and makes me feel more comfortable without having to fear any risks.

If we talk about Bitcoin then most of the time prediction about its future were wrong. This is main reason why I never believe on predictions made about future of Bitcoin. In mid of Nov 2025, there was prediction by YoungHoon Kim (the man with highest IQ of 276) that Bitcoin price will be at $220,000 in next 45 days. Likewise there are many other predictions about future of Bitcoin that went totally wrong. Now since price is down, there are predictions that price will further go down from here and we must also refrain our-self in believing such predictions. Whenever price is down we must take advantage of that situation to buy more.

[MarjorieZimmermanGinger]

I just want to pour little honest wine here, because humans are really bad at predicting things, anything I predicted or others did was always wrong we just simply cant see the future, that is why I trade futures and perps on perpmate for sake of fun sometimes it works sometimes it does not

No prediction is always accurate, especially for someone involved in day trading and that's why it's difficult to engage in day trading if we don't have good analytical skills. I've been on forums for a long time and this is the first time I've heard someone engage in futures trading just for fun and that's what I heard from you. If engaging in futures trading is just for fun, then why are you so bothered asking about predictions? Isn't it just for fun? It could be said that your involvement in trading is wrong, so there's nothing to comment on further because you mentioned it's just for fun, like most people who engage in gambling.

[Japinat]

That's why we are just predicting because there is no guarantee that we will hit what will be the future events, some could be right, but majority end up with wrong predictions. And this is normal since no one can foresee what's going to happen in the next days or next months, even those who are now highly successful in life or in crypto.

In addition, the crypto market is full of uncertainty, the reason why people are just making predictions and assumptions only from careful analysis and studies, but there is no guarantee that what they have said will definitely become the things to happen.

[Alphakilo]

That's why we are just predicting because there is no guarantee that we will hit what will be the future events, some could be right, but majority end up with wrong predictions. And this is normal since no one can foresee what's going to happen in the next days or next months, even those who are now highly successful in life or in crypto.

In addition, the crypto market is full of uncertainty, the reason why people are just making predictions and assumptions only from careful analysis and studies, but there is no guarantee that what they have said will definitely become the things to happen.

Analysis and studies only act as guidelines to a traders thinking. They are past data and can't be an accurate measure of how future events turnout to be.
It's good to see if you are good at guessing or in this sense predicting the future sometimes, mostly when you have a little fund to spare. It's fun I can say and although it's just a bit different from gambling, but am sure the risk and emotions involved is similar in comparison.

[SamReomo]

CZ has always been like that, throwing around predictions. Yet his point still stands and bitcoin could be going up again in unforeseeable future. We're not even past Q1 of 2026 and the supercycle could be in Q3 or Q4. Until we've gone past the predicted timeframe, the prediction is not yet invalid.

Not sure about that CZ but from the past events and value of Bitcoin I also guess that we might not be able to see that super cycle and there's high chance that old 4 year cycle is going to continue this time again. There's very low chance to see that super cycle but more chance of happening of that 4 year cycle pattern.

If Bitcoin somehow faces another huge dip then we should forget about that super cycle. Even, at it's current value Bitcoin is still better than most top class assets and the ones who bought Bitcoin when it was around $20k or $25k are still in very high profit.

[kawetsriyanto]

That's why risk and asset management are crucial. Crypto predictions and speculation are never 100% accurate. There will always be mistakes, and we must have a strategy to deal with all the possibilities in cryptocurrency. So far, Bitcoin price predictions have often failed to reach their ATH. Therefore, we must manage ourselves and avoid blindly believing predictions from various parties. We need to create a strategy related to several plans and targets so we don't miss anything important, especially when taking profits or when buying.

hahahha damn true  perp trade is for fun only in my opinion and yes sometimes it works sometimes dont and I hate to say that I am addicting to it :').

Unfortunately, I haven't been able to enjoy trading in futures. It's even very frustrating. It's not fun at all for me. Am I being too serious? Haha.
Indeed, no matter how frustrating it may be, our job once we've truly entered the futures market is to be prepared for all conditions. If it's still difficult, it's better not to try futures yet.

[LogitechMouse]

I just want to pour little honest wine here, because humans are really bad at predicting things, anything I predicted or others did was always wrong we just simply cant see the future, that is why I trade futures and perps on perpmate for sake of fun sometimes it works sometimes it does not, if you look at CZs tweets he also said supercycle 2026 and then something changed FUD came in CZ said its being cancelled if ex ceo of biggest crypto exchange cant predict neither can you, and just want to be honest about it, sometimes I do make money in a way I say to myself I think BTC will go up then I think in reverse, yeah let me short it then and it eventually goes down.

When I heard that CZ said that we might be in a supercycle, I just said to myself "There's a low chance that it will happen, but for me, I don't think that we will be seeing one." and just by looking at the current market price, it seems like we really aren't hence, there's no supercycle.

This is also the reason why we should don't take their predictions that much and rely on investing based on what they're saying because in their 10 predictions, 11 isn't true. The point here is, most of them are making overexaggerated predictions that it's simply not realistic. Humans might be bad at predicting things, but there are some or at least a few that are right in predicting. I've also seen one prediction on X where he said that $120,000 is the peak price of Bitcoin, and while it wasn't the exact, but it's near to it. Always remember that predictions is always 50/50 despite of the words that they're using to defend their prediction. Some big analysts can say that "Bitcoin could go to X in the next X years" then back it up with so many reasons as to why it might happen, but in the end, it will still have a 50/50 chance that it will happen.

As for your strategy though, that might work for some time, but I wonder what's your win rate in using that "strategy" of yours? Does that work in the long term? I haven't used that, and although I thought of using it at one point, I didn't in the end because... I don't see it working in my favor.

[Finestream]

As if there is a single human who is good in prediction, then he must not be surprised anymore whatever volatility brings to bitcoin and its price.

However, people's predictions are most of the time end up barking at the wrong tree. That's why its called predictions as the future events are still uncertain. Most particularly if we talk about crypto prices. The crypto market itself is highly volatile, so there's less chances that people will resort into making right predictions.

[fullfitlarry]

As if there is a single human who is good in prediction, then he must not be surprised anymore whatever volatility brings to bitcoin and its price.

However, people's predictions are most of the time end up barking at the wrong tree. That's why its called predictions as the future events are still uncertain. Most particularly if we talk about crypto prices. The crypto market itself is highly volatile, so there's less chances that people will resort into making right predictions.

That is one thing with crypto market, very unstable so it's hard to really predict where the price will be specially in short term. Many factors to consider too when we want to predict the price but still though it's no guarantee.

So I'm not surprised though that there are still a lot of this so called speculators pushing their own agenda and prediction in social media. But we all know that is not going to end good for them. But at least it will be a good exposure for this influencer. But for us, we shouldn't be bother by this entities, the less we know the game of prediction, the better of us to just go and look for the long term.

[Easteregg69]

Set a limit order and wait for it to fill.

[PiterRetip]

Yeah, that’s pretty accurate.
Most predictions only make sense after the fact, but in the moment it’s basically guessing.
Even people with way more data get it wrong all the time.
I think the only thing that really helps is risk management, not trying to “predict” perfectly.