Humans are bad at predicting things especially crypto prices.

[0xredhot]

Set a limit order and wait for it to fill.

Did this couple times then watched my PnL -40% ... haha

[EL MOHA]

However, people's predictions are most of the time end up barking at the wrong tree. That's why its called predictions as the future events are still uncertain. Most particularly if we talk about crypto prices. The crypto market itself is highly volatile, so there's less chances that people will resort into making right predictions.

Exactly I don’t understand why people are usually furious when their predictions goes wrong for goodness sake it’s was a speculation which most often has ratio of 1:1 to happen except in most stable cases where certain conditions might warrant your prediction to be likely correct otherwise you should expect negative outcome same way you anticipate positive outcomes too. It’s usually most advisable that you should actually prepare for the risk if goes not in your direction but most of the time people think they have studied the market and usually do careless about the negative outcome and that’s why when it hits they are usually frustrated because it hits hard

Set a limit order and wait for it to fill.

Did this couple times then watched my PnL -40% ... haha

Limit order doesn’t change anything in prediction rather it gives you a chance to change the order before it triggers if you actually find something extra or you cancel if the market isn’t looking good base on your analysis and before it triggers

[Hypnosis00]

Be it in trading, gambling, or predicting one's life, humans do not have the capability and be able to create accurate and precise predictions, otherwise gambling and trading won't never be that risky anymore, and life itself would not seem to be like gambling as well.

However, come to think of it, if humans have the capacity to predict crypto prices, I guess we don't be discussing crypto anymore as its no longer creating thrill and challenge on our part. But good thing, we are not like that, that is why crypto is still here and its still giving us a headache when to see bitcoin price recovers and hit its new all time high that everyone is waiting for.

[Asiska02]

The general nature of the bitcoin market makes it very obvious that the market is not what we should be expecting to predict at anytime we wish to. The market is very volatile and unpredictable, even sometimes with the best of technical knowledge and approach you used for the market, your will still fail at your prediction. I am not sure when CZ made that statement, but it is yet again very obvious that the market is not controlled by a single entity or group of people. Anyone who has been influenced in following CZ would have also failed, so sticking to your plans and observing it is most important. If you fail, you’ll learn from the mistake and try again.

[shawonngp]

If everyone could accurately predict, then everyone would have become a gainer in crypto, would have owned millions of dollars, and no one would have lost. Everyone makes predictions based on their market analysis. There is no guarantee they will be accurate. Similarly, there is no guarantee of accuracy in anything online or in real life. You say most human predictions are wrong, so do you think AI can give you an accurate prediction? Where can you win for sure? No one can guarantee what will happen in the future. If you mention CZ, he owns a crypto exchange, but that doesn't mean he can make a 100% sure prediction. I heard that some traders have lost by following his prediction.

[hostm]

There is nothing to predict. On Binance, the limit sell is 112 BTC. On Coinbase, it's 44 BTC. These are the ask prices at 70,000. So you can enter a short position now with stop loss at 71,000.

[Big Dirams]

If everyone could accurately predict, then everyone would have become a gainer in crypto, would have owned millions of dollars, and no one would have lost. Everyone makes predictions based on their market analysis. There is no guarantee they will be accurate. Similarly, there is no guarantee of accuracy in anything online or in real life. You say most human predictions are wrong, so do you think AI can give you an accurate prediction? Where can you win for sure? No one can guarantee what will happen in the future. If you mention CZ, he owns a crypto exchange, but that doesn't mean he can make a 100% sure prediction. I heard that some traders have lost by following his prediction.

The cryptocurrency market is moved by demands and supply of the pair and that what create the market movement either it to be on highs or to be on dips. When supply is high on the market and on a particular pair then such pair will witness a market dips and dumps and same goes for when a demands is high on a particular pair then such pair witness a price high and that how the market moves by demands and supplies.
 No one can make good predictions or accurate predictions of the market instead we can just only make assumptions and slight predictions of where the market movement could be and that not even guaranteed 100 percent so a lot of people that do make predictions are just making predictions base on their knowledge and analysis and such predictions ain’t to be relied on 100 percent.

[0x000369]

I just want to pour little honest wine here, because humans are really bad at predicting things, anything I predicted or others did was always wrong we just simply cant see the future, that is why I trade futures and perps on perpmate for sake of fun sometimes it works sometimes it does not, if you look at CZs tweets he also said supercycle 2026 and then something changed FUD came in CZ said its being cancelled if ex ceo of biggest crypto exchange cant predict neither can you, and just want to be honest about it, sometimes I do make money in a way I say to myself I think BTC will go up then I think in reverse, yeah let me short it then and it eventually goes down.

@bitchaser lol op youre spot on with this

people act like they got some crystal ball but its all bs

ive been here since 2011 seen every pump and dump

cz aint special just another suit who got rekt by his own hype

fud hits and everyone panics thats the game

your reverse psychology trading sounds like gambling with extra steps

but hey if it bags you sats who cares

just dont go all in or youll hodl bags forever

stick to dca and forget predictions theyre for noobs chasing moons

ai cant even get it right its all noise

market does what it wants whales pull strings we ride the waves or get dumped

lmao at thinking us prez controls it nah its blackrock and etfs now

keep it real op

[bangjoe]

No one knows the future, that's the key sign, except God. LOL

Anyone and using any tool, no one knows what the future will be like. If anyone knew then God was unfair in creating this world, if I could predict the future very accurately then I would be a rich person, live a healthy life and would never be hit by any disaster in life, I would never miss buying Bitcoin at $1, including buying ETH, Shiba, Doge and other coins which skyrocketed like crazy which could make me the richest person, but in reality I sold all of these items not at the right time, even though the profit is not as big as if I sold it at the peak price.

If you see people making predictions on social media or hear from your friends, it's just speculation with no guarantee that it will be accurate, most of them don't hit the mark.

[hostm]

There is nothing to predict. On Binance, the limit sell is 112 BTC. On Coinbase, it's 44 BTC. These are the ask prices at 70,000. So you can enter a short position now with stop loss at 71,000.

My position was closed by a stop loss and my win rate got a little worse because of it.

[0xredhot]

No one knows the future, that's the key sign, except God. LOL

Anyone and using any tool, no one knows what the future will be like. If anyone knew then God was unfair in creating this world, if I could predict the future very accurately then I would be a rich person, live a healthy life and would never be hit by any disaster in life, I would never miss buying Bitcoin at $1, including buying ETH, Shiba, Doge and other coins which skyrocketed like crazy which could make me the richest person, but in reality I sold all of these items not at the right time, even though the profit is not as big as if I sold it at the peak price.

If you see people making predictions on social media or hear from your friends, it's just speculation with no guarantee that it will be accurate, most of them don't hit the mark.

Agree, but there are still some gurus who will preach that they know where it is going lol...

[Jegileman]

Most prediction been made of the bitcoin market is actually based on available information of the market, it is not really about what will come from that point the prediction was made to the point that a result is expected to come from it. Anything can happen within that period that could trigger a change to the supposed outcome. CZ or any other top crypto enthusiast can make predictions and still not happen like that as a result of market conditions that changed which were all unforeseen circumstances. So it’s all changing and no one can get it all right all the time.

[ndutndut]

I just want to pour little honest wine here, because humans are really bad at predicting things, anything I predicted or others did was always wrong we just simply cant see the future, that is why I trade futures and perps on perpmate for sake of fun sometimes it works sometimes it does not, if you look at CZs tweets he also said supercycle 2026 and then something changed FUD came in CZ said its being cancelled if ex ceo of biggest crypto exchange cant predict neither can you, and just want to be honest about it, sometimes I do make money in a way I say to myself I think BTC will go up then I think in reverse, yeah let me short it then and it eventually goes down.

It's called predictions, my friend. So, nothing is 100% accurate sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong. This is the same as predicting a match, for example, Real Madrid vs Getafe. Even though Real Madrid is superior in terms of quality, even playing at home, they ultimately lose to Getafe.

In the crypto market, it's the same even a team like CZ can't predict the market accurately. If everyone could predict correctly, everyone would be rich and no one would lose. So, don't assume that a prediction is accurate; it's wrong, especially in the crypto market, where many aspects can influence the market in a short time. That's why many experienced investors always advise beginners to invest for the long term, not the short term.

[dunfida]

I just want to pour little honest wine here, because humans are really bad at predicting things, anything I predicted or others did was always wrong we just simply cant see the future, that is why I trade futures and perps on perpmate for sake of fun sometimes it works sometimes it does not, if you look at CZs tweets he also said supercycle 2026 and then something changed FUD came in CZ said its being cancelled if ex ceo of biggest crypto exchange cant predict neither can you, and just want to be honest about it, sometimes I do make money in a way I say to myself I think BTC will go up then I think in reverse, yeah let me short it then and it eventually goes down.

It's called predictions, my friend. So, nothing is 100% accurate sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong. This is the same as predicting a match, for example, Real Madrid vs Getafe. Even though Real Madrid is superior in terms of quality, even playing at home, they ultimately lose to Getafe.

In the crypto market, it's the same even a team like CZ can't predict the market accurately. If everyone could predict correctly, everyone would be rich and no one would lose. So, don't assume that a prediction is accurate; it's wrong, especially in the crypto market, where many aspects can influence the market in a short time. That's why many experienced investors always advise beginners to invest for the long term, not the short term.

It wont be called prediction if people would be able to choose up on whats right or the right prices if we do speak about trading/investing but we do know that this isnt how reality works. We've been dealing with a speculative market on which means that its normal that we would be predicting things and considering that there are tons of factors that would be affecting out the price movement on which no matter how good your technical analysis you would be having or no matter how good you are on trying out to ride with those fundamentals or news around and thats why its never been predictable in the first place and there's no bad with that. When dealing up with trading or investing then there's always risks involved and thats normal and if you wont be able to accept out these reality then this market isnt for you or dealing up with something. What mater most on here is that on how you would be able to sustain.

Dont try make yourself to become that perfect when it comes on predicting prices or making profitable. Whats important on here is that you do know on what you've been dealing with it and you do know on what you should do.

[bangjoe]

No one knows the future, that's the key sign, except God. LOL

Anyone and using any tool, no one knows what the future will be like. If anyone knew then God was unfair in creating this world, if I could predict the future very accurately then I would be a rich person, live a healthy life and would never be hit by any disaster in life, I would never miss buying Bitcoin at $1, including buying ETH, Shiba, Doge and other coins which skyrocketed like crazy which could make me the richest person, but in reality I sold all of these items not at the right time, even though the profit is not as big as if I sold it at the peak price.

If you see people making predictions on social media or hear from your friends, it's just speculation with no guarantee that it will be accurate, most of them don't hit the mark.

Agree, but there are still some gurus who will preach that they know where it is going lol...

It's just speculation, they also have no guarantee that what they say will happen, it's all just based on their calculations and instincts and they can't prove anything when they say it, they only look at the existing data and determine the chance that something will happen in the future, even if they are wrong, they won't be blamed because they only speculate with what they know, don't be tied to it because of its uncertainty and there is no guarantee for its justification, it's only natural to use them as a reference.

[justdimin]

if you look at CZs tweets he also said supercycle 2026 and then something changed FUD came in CZ said its being cancelled if ex ceo of biggest crypto exchange cant predict neither can you, and just want to be honest about it, sometimes I do make money in a way I say to myself I think BTC will go up then I think in reverse, yeah let me short it then and it eventually goes down.

I would not say that we are bad, I would say that we are careless. Sure there are many that got rich too ,but in most cases majority of people lose money while trading and the number one reason for it is because we are careless. I do not know why, and I do not know how we became like this, but for some reason when it comes to "making money with money" we are a lot less careful.

Like if someone is using 10k to get some product from China to sell at their own home country, they think twice about it, not just twice, they think ten times about it and usually decide not to, and even if they do end up doing it, they are usually taking a long time to think. But someone trading with it? They just do it like it's nothing.

[lizarder]

if you look at CZs tweets he also said supercycle 2026 and then something changed FUD came in CZ said its being cancelled if ex ceo of biggest crypto exchange cant predict neither can you, and just want to be honest about it, sometimes I do make money in a way I say to myself I think BTC will go up then I think in reverse, yeah let me short it then and it eventually goes down.

Predictions are certainly not always accurate or on target, but the problem is that most people use predictions from influential people as a basis for making decisions, so they decide to act without doing their own thorough analysis. CZ or anyone else, is human and every prediction is certainly not always accurate and even many AI systems can be wrong in providing information. Therefore, we need to verify or analyze our own results to be confident in our results.

Similarly our involvement in trading is similar sometimes our predictions are correct and can result in profits, but the next prediction can potentially result in losses because the market doesn't move as predicted. That's normal, but everyone should have the ability to see potential and if they think it's wrong, then there's no need to follow it and it's better to wait for the momentum to get involved in it.

[YOSHIE]

Humans are bad at predicting things especially crypto prices.

It is true that humans have limitations, of course they are not very good at predicting and speculating on the crypto market or Bitcoin prices, this is not without reason. considering that the crypto market can be said to be complicated and extreme, in general, crypto assets are indeed difficult to predict consistently, for this reason humans tend to often fail.

There are several other reasons that can be said to be difficult to predict.
One of them is FOMO, Cognitive Bias and Extreme Volatility and Psychological Factors and so on. This is not caused by humans lacking data, it is actually more complete, because the nature of the crypto market is quite sensitive in several basic ways, which is why it is ineffective or fails in terms of predictions.

[SquallLeonhart]

Analysis and studies only act as guidelines to a traders thinking. They are past data and can't be an accurate measure of how future events turnout to be.
It's good to see if you are good at guessing or in this sense predicting the future sometimes, mostly when you have a little fund to spare. It's fun I can say and although it's just a bit different from gambling, but am sure the risk and emotions involved is similar in comparison.

There are past data and there is also live date. However even a live data can't indeed guaranteed us a sure win. If one is good at predicting, maybe that is the time that they can increase their bets? And even if they lose a little, they might still up from their past wins. This here is not different from gambling. You even said the risk and emotion is similar but maybe you have some doubt because you think gambling is purely by chance.

Yes, most games are but there are still some games where analysis can matter a lot. If we are good at guessing at predicating the future, maybe we can also use it as a business and start giving advices to other people for cash? Lol.

[leonair]

I just want to pour little honest wine here, because humans are really bad at predicting things, anything I predicted or others did was always wrong we just simply cant see the future, that is why I trade futures and perps on perpmate for sake of fun sometimes it works sometimes it does not, if you look at CZs tweets he also said supercycle 2026 and then something changed FUD came in CZ said its being cancelled if ex ceo of biggest crypto exchange cant predict neither can you, and just want to be honest about it, sometimes I do make money in a way I say to myself I think BTC will go up then I think in reverse, yeah let me short it then and it eventually goes down.

Your prediction is not wrong, your decision is wrong, most of the time we think our prediction is wrong because we cannot be patient and give up the investment too quickly. Paniciness proves our prediction wrong. In the case of crypto investment, as the prediction needs to be good, patience is of course very important. I have not seen so far that the things I predicted did not happen. But till then I could not be patient due to which I lost myself but after a certain time my prediction was right. So I do not believe that human predictions do not work.