Humans are bad at predicting things especially crypto prices.

[CageMabok]

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Your prediction is not wrong, your decision is wrong, most of the time we think our prediction is wrong because we cannot be patient and give up the investment too quickly. Paniciness proves our prediction wrong. In the case of crypto investment, as the prediction needs to be good, patience is of course very important. I have not seen so far that the things I predicted did not happen. But till then I could not be patient due to which I lost myself but after a certain time my prediction was right. So I do not believe that human predictions do not work.

Human predictions can be successful, but they also don't always work because not everyone is always accurate in their predictions, although after a while, they will eventually become correct. I personally made the mistake of selling Bitcoin too quickly after owning it for a while, which could also be considered a mistake due to not having the patience to hold on to it for a while longer. Therefore, I also don't deny that everyone needs patience when investing, while for other things, like trading, I believe it's more oriented towards quick profits, even if the amounts vary.

[kawetsriyanto]

Human predictions can be successful, but they also don't always work because not everyone is always accurate in their predictions, although after a while, they will eventually become correct.

If it is always accurate, we don't call it as a prediction anymore. Well, there is no good accuracy when people guess the future. We have no ability to know the future. So, the chance for success or failure will be always 50:50. Even, the chance for success can be smaller if we predict it in random ways. 

I personally made the mistake of selling Bitcoin too quickly after owning it for a while, which could also be considered a mistake due to not having the patience to hold on to it for a while longer. Therefore, I also don't deny that everyone needs patience when investing, while for other things, like trading, I believe it's more oriented towards quick profits, even if the amounts vary.

Did you sell your Bitcoin because the price has reached your selling target? If you got enough profits and it met your target, you shouldn't call it as a mistake. Just don't feel too greedy! You must also remember that many people even failed to sell their Bitcoin during the bullrun season. They may be too patient or they are too late to consider the exit decision.

[passwordnow]

Well, who are goin to be the good ones in predicting things? the animals? It should be known that there's no other creature on this world that can predict and it is us, humans. We know that not all of the predictions can be accurate as what you want it to be. But that's the natural thing in predictions. You're giving a guess whether you will back it up with basis or there's none, you're guessing the whole thing. And are you going to get any penalty when you predicted things wrong? there is none unless you've joined some prediction contests then you'll not win.

[JeffBrad12]

Set a limit order and wait for it to fill.

Did this couple times then watched my PnL -40% ... haha

Limit order is only there to give you a good price without waiting, it still depends on the market and you should use stop loss at every nearest invalidation zone so you don't lose too much.
-40% is pretty big amount if you ask me, are you sure you're even trading the proper way such as not over leveraging and using spot market if you can. I suspect you are using too much leverage .

[barbara44]

This is what I am starting to think as well. I mean I get that it may not be that easy to say because lets not put all of humanity at the same bag, but I am starting to think many are like this. Because for the past 15 years, bitcoin has done the same thing and for some reason they are still falling for it.

Like we are in the bear market right now, so that means price will fall 70%+ from the peak, which means under 40k, and that WILL happen because it has happened for the past 15+ years , ever single time, without fail. And now they look at it and whenever there is a small increase, they all go "bear is over!!!" and start buying and then all lose money. That makes no sense, how do you fail something that is already known?

[Furball808]

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Your prediction is not wrong, your decision is wrong, most of the time we think our prediction is wrong because we cannot be patient and give up the investment too quickly. Paniciness proves our prediction wrong. In the case of crypto investment, as the prediction needs to be good, patience is of course very important. I have not seen so far that the things I predicted did not happen. But till then I could not be patient due to which I lost myself but after a certain time my prediction was right. So I do not believe that human predictions do not work.

Human predictions can be successful, but they also don't always work because not everyone is always accurate in their predictions, although after a while, they will eventually become correct. I personally made the mistake of selling Bitcoin too quickly after owning it for a while, which could also be considered a mistake due to not having the patience to hold on to it for a while longer. Therefore, I also don't deny that everyone needs patience when investing, while for other things, like trading, I believe it's more oriented towards quick profits, even if the amounts vary.

This can be easily explained by humans not being able to predict the future. Even if they base their predictions on past events, the past don't always repeat itself in the same manner. We can identify patterns but it is impossible to actually predict everything correctly. Down to every detail. If humans can predict the future, we would be making less mistakes.

Even in trading with tools, it is still not 100% accurate because the future is so uncertain. Never trade with too much confidence. You can never be too correct when it comes to trading.

[Awaklara]

Even in trading with tools, it is still not 100% accurate because the future is so uncertain. Never trade with too much confidence. You can never be too correct when it comes to trading.

I am reminded of a friend who trades using advice from AI to set trade positions and choose assets to buy. He said that the first time he tried it was quite good, but after trying again, it was a loss. We can trust ourselves or others in trading, but always remember that no one truly knows future predictions. We bear the risks ourselves.

[jostorres]

Set a limit order and wait for it to fill.

Did this couple times then watched my PnL -40% ... haha

Maybe trading is not your cup of tea. It took me some time to realize that I cannot be the master of everything and some things I have to let go and other things I have to delegate. My life is too complex and I'm too busy to manage it all.

Similarly, if you think trading is not working out and you can't make the right trades, it's not a bad idea to take a step back and reflect on what's going on. Not everyone is a trader; maybe you have some other talent and can make more money that way. You know, sometimes just taking a break and restarting itself can help a lot because when you are stuck in a certain mindset you keep making the same mistakes because you think in a very linear pattern.

[Kelvinid]

No one is really good when it comes to predictions, that's because no one holds the future, no one can foresee the things that will happen especially if we are talking here a volatile and uncertain market.

That is the reason why trading could be hard and risky, and trading is not for everyone.

But as long as you never trade with greed, and you stay cautious and patient in trading with your best positions, then I guess no matter how unpredictable trading is, the outcome will not end up the worst.

[Doll2233]

No one is really good when it comes to predictions, that's because no one holds the future, no one can foresee the things that will happen especially if we are talking here a volatile and uncertain market.

That is the reason why trading could be hard and risky, and trading is not for everyone.

But as long as you never trade with greed, and you stay cautious and patient in trading with your best positions, then I guess no matter how unpredictable trading is, the outcome will not end up the worst.

There is more uncertainty in trading of cryptocurrency as como to other metals and things and people want to earn more money by predicting the market on YouTube and they are making long videos which are giving them views and they are earning from that . Sometimes their predictions could be good and at that time they will earn more profit because these people will tell others about prediction and videos of that person and there are many people who are only selling the video on the name of trading expert and trading prediction but prediction could be right or wrong and there are full chances of trading. Many people are doing trades and they are giving prediction but they are not making videos and they are present on BTC talk where they are guiding others to come in the market.

[Ziskinberg]

Even in trading with tools, it is still not 100% accurate because the future is so uncertain. Never trade with too much confidence. You can never be too correct when it comes to trading.

I am reminded of a friend who trades using advice from AI to set trade positions and choose assets to buy. He said that the first time he tried it was quite good, but after trying again, it was a loss. We can trust ourselves or others in trading, but always remember that no one truly knows future predictions. We bear the risks ourselves.

Exactly. That is why there are no real good traders in the market because everyone is still opt to lose due to market uncertainty. No one is good enough to predict the future events in the market, and I think that reality alone creates more challenge to every trader to manage their expectations from trading.

However, there are still greedy traders trying to take advantage of the market. And I can't blame this kind of people because we were once also like that, but their longer stay while trading in the market will definitely leave them impactful lessons to ponder and learn.

[programmer3666]

I just want to pour little honest wine here, because humans are really bad at predicting things, anything I predicted or others did was always wrong we just simply cant see the future, that is why I trade futures and perps on perpmate for sake of fun sometimes it works sometimes it does not, if you look at CZs tweets he also said supercycle 2026 and then something changed FUD came in CZ said its being cancelled if ex ceo of biggest crypto exchange cant predict neither can you, and just want to be honest about it, sometimes I do make money in a way I say to myself I think BTC will go up then I think in reverse, yeah let me short it then and it eventually goes down.

If people are like 100% correct when it comes to their predictions, then I doubt we will have so many poor people around the world. The truth is that nobody can confidently predict the future with complete accuracy. Beside that is the reason why it is called a prediction in the first place. There will always be room for errors. No human being can accurately predict what will happen even in the next one minute, not to talk about hours, days or weeks. Markets trajectory in crypto are just very unpredictable. Sometimes people get it right, but many times they are wrong about it. That’s just the nature of prediction to begin with.

[Cryptomann4562]

Crypto markets are highly volatile and influenced by many unpredictable factors like news, regulation, large traders (“whales”), and market sentiment, which makes accurate forecasting very difficult. Because of this complexity and randomness, even experienced analysts and models often fail to reliably predict short-term price movements.