BTC below $67K: temporary correlation or macro warning?

[paulo pinto]

Bitcoin has fallen back below $67,000, while software company stocks remain under pressure.
When risk assets begin to retreat together, the issue ceases to be technical and becomes structural.
Are we only seeing a short-term correlation…
or is the market repricing risk more broadly?
Veterans know: sometimes BTC leads.
Other times, it just follows.
Which interpretation makes more sense at this moment?

[Charles-Tim]

This thread belongs to speculation board.

This bear market may be long, you can see that people are not ready to push bitcoin above $70000. Do not relate bitcoin with other assets as it has its own pattern that it is following which is the 4 years cycle that will still be valid for now. The bear market will later be over but it may take few months.

[Darker45]

It's probably neither. AI-related fears and anxiety which are closely associated with the pressure software companies are taking right now have very little or nothing to do with Bitcoin. Bitcoin already started to correct after hitting an ATH in October last year. Since then, it hasn't reclaimed the 6-digit price. But this correction was somehow anticipated. It's in the cycle.

As to "macro warning", of what particularly? I hope it isn't Bitcoin's impending death. Otherwise, it's the same old FUD recycled all over again.

[m2017]

As to "macro warning", of what particularly? I hope it isn't Bitcoin's impending death. Otherwise, it's the same old FUD recycled all over again.

I believe OP is referring to a further price decline. The desire (and expectation) of most people for an imminent rebound in bitcoin is still in the air, while, in my opinion, a further decline is clearly inevitable. Considering that bearish season has only just begun.

Since then, it hasn't reclaimed the 6-digit price. But this correction was somehow anticipated. It's in the cycle.

Yes, that's true. So why is everyone so confused about bitcoin falling under bearish pressure? What's happening is normal in the current situation.

This bear market may be long, you can see that people are not ready to push bitcoin above $70000.

Of course, it will be long if it has always been like this.

The bear market will later be over but it may take few months.

A few months? You're just being optimistic.

Fasten your seatbelts and get ready for a long, drawn-out dive into the depths of bitcoin's price.

[pooya87]

There has never been any correlation between bitcoin price and any other markets including the stock market (as a whole or part of it like tech). However, ever since 2020 bear market there are a lot of weak hands who would panic sell each time some other market (usually US stock market) crashes. Although I wouldn't call it a correlation but there is some link there...

Is it temporary? It doesn't look like it considering how price has been on a downward trajectory ever since October 7 (which is roughly 4 months) coming down from $126k and setting a new low each time. But at the same time, this "crash" has already grown big enough in size (it is about 50% drop) so it has to slow down now and we can conclude that we are close to the end of the bear market. Of course that is if nothing new happens...

[Odusko]

Bitcoin has fallen back below $67,000, while software company stocks remain under pressure.
When risk assets begin to retreat together, the issue ceases to be technical and becomes structural.
Are we only seeing a short-term correlation…
or is the market repricing risk more broadly?
Veterans know: sometimes BTC leads.
Other times, it just follows.
Which interpretation makes more sense at this moment?

In the past, investors saw assets like gold and real estate as large safe havens for investment, but since 2021-2023, focus has been placed on Bitcoin. This shift occurred because of investors' growing knowledge and ability to manage the risks that come with Bitcoin as an asset. What we also need to know is that Bitcoin doesn't follow the same market patterns as other assets like gold; instead, Bitcoin has its own market pattern that is always fueled by demand and liquidity inflows from investors e.g., Bitcoin ETFs and institutions interested in new positions in the market. These are what trigger the price the most.

[Bitcoin_people]

Bitcoin is currently at a stage where it is very difficult to predict, especially when Bitcoin goes up a little, many think that it may increase further. However, later when the price of Bitcoin goes down again, many think that it may move towards further decline. However, I think that currently there is a support of $67,000 that does not take the market up much, but there is a high possibility of falling. According to such a situation in the market, we think that it is very much at risk and if the market goes down further, we will have to face a lot of losses. The way Bitcoin is currently moving, it may be very unlikely to increase this year, but we can ensure that Bitcoin will definitely come back. We need to make a long-term plan according to the current market situation and hold.

[Alonso_]

There is not much to worry about, instead at this point you should be more concerned about buying and accumulating bitcoin now instead of getting all worried, bitcoin would always correct its price and it will always come down because that is the way Bitcoin is made, so as an investor I’m completely not worried about the price of Bitcoin right now I’m more concerned about buying more Bitcoin and having more discretionary income available to buy more Bitcoin on a consistent basis, that is what really matters to me buying bitcoin which is why I’m not panicking whatsoever because, so it’s just a temporary correction which can easily be managed and controlled by accumulating more Bitcoin.

[dwyane36]

There has never been any correlation between bitcoin price and any other markets including the stock market (as a whole or part of it like tech). However, ever since 2020 bear market there are a lot of weak hands who would panic sell each time some other market (usually US stock market) crashes. Although I wouldn't call it a correlation but there is some link there...

Is it temporary? It doesn't look like it considering how price has been on a downward trajectory ever since October 7 (which is roughly 4 months) coming down from $126k and setting a new low each time. But at the same time, this "crash" has already grown big enough in size (it is about 50% drop) so it has to slow down now and we can conclude that we are close to the end of the bear market. Of course that is if nothing new happens...

You're right that there was no correlation before, but now, unfortunately, there is, and I think the main reason is not weak hands, but the fact that in recent years, more and more institutional investors have started investing in Bitcoin.
As for the current bearish trend, I personally expect the bottom to be in the range of $55k to $60k, although there may well be a small bullish rebound from the current level before that.