If War Comes Tomorrow: How Will Bitcoin React?

[Alpen]

Several global news outlets are pointing to this Saturday as a likely date for a strike on Iran. So what does a trader do with that kind of foresight? If war kicks off tomorrow, how does Bitcoin react?

Here's my take. The media says it could drag on for weeks. A prolonged campaign would choke off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz—that's 25% of global supply. Plus, Iran could hit Saudi fields. And Riyadh signed off on the operation. Oil spikes? That's a death sentence for the global economy. Any progress on inflation gets wiped out. Forget about rate cuts from central banks or the Fed.



Still, Bitcoin could actually rip higher—we've seen it before in Middle East conflicts. But $90K is where the rally stalls. Institutional money is fleeing BTC ETFs—fund outflows have been red for a month straight. With liquidity drying up, bears could carve right through that wide support zone from $65K down to $60K. If the operation drags on? Then we're looking at $50K Bitcoin.

My plan is simple—I'll start buying at $60K and keep adding every time we dip below. That's the mining cost floor. Crossing it has always signaled the end of a crypto winter.

[retaur]

Crypto might be sheltered a bit from that war and I can imagine the S&P climbing as a result of it (aircraft part sales, missile sales, proofs of concepts etc).

No idea what the fallout of an Iran v Israel/US war would be though. I imagine a lot of Iranian weapons will be moved to another country (as they acquired some systems from Iraq at the end of the Iraq war iirc).

I think longer term sharper fluctuations and volatility in oil price is probably going to ensure green energy, biomass and nuclear get pushed more than they already are (renewable electricity is already cheaper to produce it's just the cost and confidence of the infrastructure).

[X-ray]

Still, Bitcoin could actually rip higher—

Learning from venezuela where bitcoin is unmoved and resilient. If it rips higher that will be unlikely outcome isn't it? I think it will be unmoved when the war escalate.

There could be some volatility yet on the other hand since bitcoin has been pretty low in price after the correction, the possibilities for bitcoin for yet another big dump could be small, since you stated that it's nearing the mining cost floor which account into bitcoin being too undervalued combined with several technical indicator such as Relative Strenght Index that's on the lower side.

[Cleanshit]

Well on my own side of the matter I don’t see such happening, well the thing is that I don’t even no but I feel bitcoin reactions i think it might likely hit the the volatile, but the truth of the matter is that is will be very hard to predict what might happen when it happens eventually, on a long bitcoin has really shown so many resilience i think doing some global conflict, on a second thought I think most investors might want to panic sell I think that could only be what should happen higher.

[pooya87]

It would be too complicated to predict. There is a lot of things that can happen during different phases. If the US regime starts a war with Iran then Iran will start retaliating hard...

First phase: A regional war that will extend into Europe and Africa as well
In the first steps due to the acts of aggression of the pedophile POTUS, the international trade will halt inside the Persian Gulf, Sea of Omman, Gulf of Aden, Red Sea on the first days as Iranians will start hitting the US navy and US military bases in a 5000 km radius while Iranian allies (eg. Armed Forces of Yemen) shut down the rest. Basically anything that has USA written on it will be destroyed.

Considering how Iran can rapidly cripple the US regime's military by hitting all its military bases in Arabian peninsula, and other places like Jordan, Turkey, occupied Aran (basically Caucasus), etc. the regime will have to either beg for ceasefire like in June (something Iran is unlikely to accept) or continue its campaign from the next layer of their bases which means from Europe and Africa.
That means the US regime bases in the second layer would become legitimate targets. That is US regime bases in Africa (eg. Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia) and Europe (Cyprus and Greece for the start, followed by deeper targets like Ramstein Air Base in Germany).

This roughly shows the regions affected. The red parts are the international trade routes that will be shut down mostly (you can see on marine traffics how many vessels pass there) and the yellow crosses show the gas stations that will cease to exist (most probably liberated and retaken by Iran, otherwise completely destroyed).

Up to this point we can see that majority of international trade is simply not happening. The inflation would be devastating even without counting in the energy price rise. On top of that with each US naval unit that is hit or sunk, the US dollar sinks with it.
So far all of this could be positive news for bitcoin which thrives during inflation and dollar tanking. So we could see mass capital exiting the US and EU economies and entering bitcoin and gold as an exit.

But the other problem is when energy prices soar. I wouldn't say destruction of oil and gas fields, but we may start seeing Iran capture them. Keep in mind that the Southern shores of Persian Gulf belonged to Persia not to these little Arab dictators who have made "gas stations" there (Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, ...) These are all Iranian soil under occupation of dictator tribes that will be liberated. So oil and gas prices can shoot up at first but it will come down after Iran takes back its territories and crushes the US regime.
So we may see recession in short term but in long term things could go back to normal. We know recession has negative effect on bitcoin price.

Second phase: The war will pour into the US mainland
I'll expand this phase when we get there. But in short, things will start from the East Coast moving west. First targets will be the headquarters of the pedophiles alongside their energy and military infrastructure to cripple the enemy for good.
In this phase with dollar being annihilated, we could see bitcoin reach $10 million easily.

P.S. It is worth mentioning that only the loud-mouthing of the pedophile POTUS on twitter followed by Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz for a very short military drill has brought oil price up to $72 from the $58 bottom (roughly 25% rise).

P.P.S. Another thing to consider is going to be effects of this on other wars.
In Eastern Europe, as NATO's "big guy" continues being destroyed elsewhere, it gives Russia a great opportunity to advance so much faster and take over Ukraine completely and then move into the rest of Europe. The increased oil price would massively help Russia fund that war as well because they will be rolling in money.
That would devastate global economy even more which means bitcoin can start shining more as a safe haven...

[Darker45]

Still, Bitcoin could actually rip higher—

Learning from venezuela...

Perhaps that's an altogether different scenario. It wasn't even a war. There was just a quick kidnapping, and that's it. If there was any resistance, it could be likened to a toddler trying to stop Mike Tyson.

We might learn something from Israel and US' attack on Iran last year, though. That was a serious one. Key political and military leaders, even nuclear scientists, were killed. The supreme leader was even targeted. Bombs on nuclear facilities were dropped. Facilities were destroyed. Iran even retaliated against the US by firing missiles at the US military base in Qatar.

That didn't affect the market, though. Bitcoin didn't care. It continued to rise and even hit an ATH a few months later. It might just be the same this time around, especially because sellers have already done their thing.

[Charles-Tim]

Still, Bitcoin could actually rip higher—we've seen it before in Middle East conflicts. But $90K is where the rally stalls. Institutional money is fleeing BTC ETFs—fund outflows have been red for a month straight. With liquidity drying up, bears could carve right through that wide support zone from $65K down to $60K. If the operation drags on? Then we're looking at $50K Bitcoin.

When the war started in the middle east, or as we heard Hamas doing the thing, or as Israel attacked Iran or as Iran sent missiles to Israel, bitcoin was affected only for a short period of time and the price will increase again. At the end, what happened? All-time high. Only what can make the price of bitcoin to fall this time is the bear market, nothing more. If the war happened in the bull market, you will think bitcoin price is falling but you will later notice another all-time high.

[bitmover]

Several global news outlets are pointing to this Saturday as a likely date for a strike on Iran. So what does a trader do with that kind of foresight? If war kicks off tomorrow, how does Bitcoin react?

Bitcoin performed quite well even after crazy events like covid-19 and russia invasion on Ukraine.

I wouldn't worry about bitcoin if more wars come... I think we all would have bigger concerns. Bitcoin can hedge and protect people's finance . Maybe similar to gold

[davis196]

Bitcoin will react the same way it reacted when the war in Ukraine started or when the Gaza conflict began. I find it funny how many people believe that Trump "the peacemaker" would start a war with Iran. Trump is a guy, who threatens all the time, but in the end, he settles a deal with his opponent and moves on. I don't want to speculate about geopolitical topics in the Economy forum. I still believe that the bearish crypto market will continue and no war around the world would ever help for the Bitcoin price to grow. Less wars and less geopolitical tensions means higher Bitcoin price, not the opposite.

[Fortify]

Several global news outlets are pointing to this Saturday as a likely date for a strike on Iran. So what does a trader do with that kind of foresight? If war kicks off tomorrow, how does Bitcoin react?

Here's my take. The media says it could drag on for weeks. A prolonged campaign would choke off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz—that's 25% of global supply. Plus, Iran could hit Saudi fields. And Riyadh signed off on the operation. Oil spikes? That's a death sentence for the global economy. Any progress on inflation gets wiped out. Forget about rate cuts from central banks or the Fed.

War is very bad for business and could lead to a recession. Iran would get beaten, but we can see how the Iraq and Afghanistan wars played out that it often ends up dragging on way longer than promised. They might also be able to do a fair bit more damage and close down important shopping routes for a while by mining them. We would probably see all markets drop including crypto, it is a high risk asset and they are often the first to get liquidated.

[pooya87]

That didn't affect the market, though. Bitcoin didn't care. It continued to rise and even hit an ATH a few months later. It might just be the same this time around, especially because sellers have already done their thing.

Bitcoin went from around $110k down to $98k (-10%) so I wouldn't say "bitcoin didn't care". Similarly oil went up roughly 10% IIRC back in June 2025. And that was minimal effect because Iran only focused on heavily battering Israel and only a handful of US bases in Syria and their Central Command in Qatar.

The fire exchange between Iran and NATO only lasted 13 days too, so it was short. Not enough time to devastate the global economy.

What Iran did NOT do during those 13 days back in June were to:
- Shut down Strait of Hormuz and the rest of the sea routs I mentioned earlier
- Horizontally expanding the conflict that would affect the energy market
- Destroying the bulk of US military bases in the region
- Destroy or capture oil and gas fields under dictatorship tribes in the Persian Gulf

This time things will be different though and in retaliation, Iran will do all of the above and more which would affect the global economy harshly.

2 important facts as well:
1. Back in June, the order was already issued to open the doors to the vast missile stashes containing older missiles such as Shahab-3 to begin a very long and large scale carpet bombing from day 15 onward.
2. Iran never accepted the ceasefire that the pedophile POTUS begged for. Only decided to stop bombing the Axis. So if the Axis decides to attack Iran, it would be the resumption of the previous one and Iran could move to day 15 and start the carpet bombing...

[Smartvirus]

That didn't affect the market, though. Bitcoin didn't care. It continued to rise and even hit an ATH a few months later. It might just be the same this time around, especially because sellers have already done their thing.

Bitcoin went from around $110k down to $98k (-10%) so I wouldn't say "bitcoin didn't care". Similarly oil went up roughly 10% IIRC back in June 2025. And that was minimal effect because Iran only focused on heavily battering Israel and only a handful of US bases in Syria and their Central Command in Qatar.

The fire exchange between Iran and NATO only lasted 13 days too, so it was short. Not enough time to devastate the global economy.

Obviously, there is always going to be a slight drop before it would find a way to bounce back should any war endure more than anticipated and I say this due to the fact that, it’s not uncommon that Bitcoin has being associated as a conflict resonance currency where, certain individuals try to fuel the conflict through Bitcoin donations to conflicting nations and as well, raise funds for arms giving using Bitcoin in conflicting nations which would in turn, increase its demand and price as well in these sad times.

[YOSHIE]

If war kicks off tomorrow, how does Bitcoin react?

There are several things that will happen to Bitcoin, if a war occurs.
1. If the internet goes down, the network breaks down, the lights go out, Bitcoin will become a treasure, after the war is over and the world returns to normal, you can access Bitcoin again and get it back.

We now see war happening everywhere, Iran, Israel, Russia and so on, in fact Bitcoin continues to act as usual, only the price changes up and down, nothing more.
In my opinion, if a war occurs there is no serious reaction to Bitcoin, everything goes perfectly.

[dansus021]

In my opinion "Bitcoin is double-edged sword" Depending on the day, Bitcoin acts like a risky tech stock or digital gold. Whenever a missile is launched or an invasion begins, the initial reaction is almost always a price drop. Investors get scared and move their money into "cash" (USD) or physical gold. They sell "risky" assets first, and because Bitcoin trades 24/7, it’s often the first thing to get hit.

After the initial shock wears off (usually within a few days or weeks), Bitcoin often rebounds. This is where its "Digital Gold" narrative kicks in.

[ColdLava40]

~

When there are events like war, bitcoin becomes a safe heaven. We've seen this last year and the previous years how price skyrocketed due to theses forces.

Gold too may do same as it has always been a safe heaven in conflicts periods.

For now the amount of fud from investors may trigger the market to dive below the $60k. And if that doesn't happens we may be seeing more lows. That still doesn't mean it won't return to it's bullish trend, but when is known to none..

[DrBeer]

It would be too complicated to predict. There is a lot of things that can happen during different phases. If the US regime starts a war with Iran then Iran will start retaliating hard...

First phase: A regional war that will extend into Europe and Africa as well
....
Considering how Iran can rapidly cripple the US regime's military by hitting all its military bases in Arabian peninsula, and other places like Jordan, Turkey, occupied Aran (basically Caucasus), etc. the regime will have to either beg for ceasefire like in June (something Iran is unlikely to accept) or continue its campaign from the next layer of their bases which means from Europe and Africa.
....

 

Hi
Tell me, are you writing this nonsense using American StarLink?! After all, the internet, for the Iranian people, whom the Ayatollah regime drowned in blood, has been completely shut down by this same regime for ordinary people, and is only available to the regime's guard dogs, the “Guardians of the Islamic Revolution” IRGC and the Iranian secret services.
Tell us another fairy tale?

Well, the bottom line is that in terms of the level of nonsense and idiocy, this prediction surpassed Putin's nonsense about “taking Kiev in a day.” Where Putin learned cheap and stupid propaganda, you taught him, right?  

[Iranus]

When trouble increases in the Middle East, the price of Bitcoin often goes up and down. Because big traders, sensing danger, want to sell Bitcoin along with stocks or altcoin to free up their hand. I dont know if you could remember last June 2025 when Israel attacked Iran, Bitcoin was falling below $103000 due to risk aversion

However there is a flip side to the coin. After handling the initial shock when the market calms down a bit or there is talk of a ceasefire Bitcoin bounces back. Then the move of big investor and the direction of the world economy determine how long this recovery will last. As has been seen in many previous war this price decline was temporary and the market made a comeback as soon as the situation cooled down a bit

So those who are blindly saying that the price will suddenly reach 50 or 60 thousand they do not understand the true character of the market. Just as there can be a big sell off due to the risk of war, there can also be a short squeeze. Which direction the price will go depend not only on the war but also on the position of the market and the global economy

[SUPERSAIAN]

Several wars are already ongoing in various regions of the world. It's very difficult to predict what would happen if a new war broke out. I think it's more likely to have negative consequences. Why would people buy Bitcoin during a war? Bitcoin is a store of value. It would probably be easier to spend paper money, but I don't know. I also know how much value some countries' currencies lost during past wars, so I'm not sure.

[Furball808]

Still, Bitcoin could actually rip higher—

Learning from venezuela...

Perhaps that's an altogether different scenario. It wasn't even a war. There was just a quick kidnapping, and that's it. If there was any resistance, it could be likened to a toddler trying to stop Mike Tyson.

We might learn something from Israel and US' attack on Iran last year, though. That was a serious one. Key political and military leaders, even nuclear scientists, were killed. The supreme leader was even targeted. Bombs on nuclear facilities were dropped. Facilities were destroyed. Iran even retaliated against the US by firing missiles at the US military base in Qatar.

That didn't affect the market, though. Bitcoin didn't care. It continued to rise and even hit an ATH a few months later. It might just be the same this time around, especially because sellers have already done their thing.

That’s what I’m thinking too. The ones left holding are mostly those who don’t believe in FUD and are in this in the long run. Unless they are directly affected by the war itself, they might not see any reason to take out their money from bitcoin. If anything this should be a time to put more money in.

[passwordnow]

My plan is simple—I'll start buying at $60K and keep adding every time we dip below. That's the mining cost floor. Crossing it has always signaled the end of a crypto winter.

You have a good plan and I hope that the others will do the same as what you're trying to do. You have a concrete price of when you'll start buying. Because with the recent status of the market, I've always seen people telling that they'll only start buying around $10k up to $40k or so. The $60k is already a good price and we've hit that and even quite a bit lower of a thousand last time. The global trends and the geopolitics really are triggering all the markets including bitcoin and the altcoins, we shall see more when these trigger of wars come.