If War Comes Tomorrow: How Will Bitcoin React?

[Odogwu-Blockchain]

Several global news outlets are pointing to this Saturday as a likely date for a strike on Iran. So what does a trader do with that kind of foresight? If war kicks off tomorrow, how does Bitcoin react?

Bitcoin performed quite well even after crazy events like covid-19 and russia invasion on Ukraine.

I wouldn't worry about bitcoin if more wars come... I think we all would have bigger concerns. Bitcoin can hedge and protect people's finance . Maybe similar to gold

Maybe we could say the war was between two nations and that corona virus outbreak the world was was never a war. What if OP is literally meaning, World War III. How would the price and Bitcoin react. The same thing that happen when these two outbreak occurred will be the same thing that will happen if WW III will happen. The time will be different.

[coupable]

I still believe that the bearish crypto market will continue and no war around the world would ever help for the Bitcoin price to grow. Less wars and less geopolitical tensions means higher Bitcoin price, not the opposite.

I partially agree with your opinion that bitcoin will revives in a peaceful condition rather than times of conflicts. Why I say partially is because bitcoin also revives good in war zones because people need it more as a cashless system, but this is temporary because we can't talk about a stable condition of war. In wars, only people in the conflict zone will search for alternatives, but consider that wars comes with victims and immigration.

[Zaguru12]

Maybe we could say the war was between two nations and that corona virus outbreak the world was was never a war. What if OP is literally meaning, World War III. How would the price and Bitcoin react. The same thing that happen when these two outbreak occurred will be the same thing that will happen if WW III will happen. The time will be different.

While I don’t actually think it’s actually going to be us having that discussion when the war comes because of more pressing issues at hand then, I still think that bitcoin will most definitely be going in the same direction that the world economy will be going. Yes we saw bitcoin actually doing fantastic during the pandemic crisis but let’s be honest that won’t be the case if the war was to break out in different manner.

What I mean is the pandemic actually had nothing to do directly to bitcoin in fact it exposes more people to bitcoin as they were under lockdown looking for alternatives to banks and this was actually was increased the demand then but let’s look at it from here.

imagine if the war actually has to affect the energy supply, this will seriously affects the bitcoin miners and it will negatively affect the bitcoin price too. So the direction of the war will be the determinate of bitcoin state then

[Jewan420]

The Middle East war is currently the most talked about news in the international media. Bitcoin, which is mostly influenced by US news, may see some changes or volatility around the upcoming Iran vs US and Israel war. Since we are already in the dip end, we may not go too dip. The last time this attack started, the market was more stable than expected and the volatility was very short-lived. This time, we may encounter unexpected events, either positive or negative.

[Zlantann]

Maybe we could say the war was between two nations and that corona virus outbreak the world was was never a war. What if OP is literally meaning, World War III. How would the price and Bitcoin react. The same thing that happen when these two outbreak occurred will be the same thing that will happen if WW III will happen. The time will be different.

The world economy practically depends on crude oil. A high quantity of these resources comes from the Middle East. Any conflict that will stop or disrupt the supply of crude to some countries will devastate the economy. The world economy is interrelated and interdependent, so a problem in an area would have a ripple effect on the global economy. When the price of oil increases very high, the global economy will be affected adversely.

Attacking Iran would affect the supply of crude to many global industries, which might cause them to suspend operations or seek alternatives. Seeking an alternative supply is time-consuming and expensive.

[Darker45]

~snip~

Bitcoin went from around $110k down to $98k (-10%) so I wouldn't say "bitcoin didn't care". Similarly oil went up roughly 10% IIRC back in June 2025. And that was minimal effect because Iran only focused on heavily battering Israel and only a handful of US bases in Syria and their Central Command in Qatar.

The fire exchange between Iran and NATO only lasted 13 days too, so it was short. Not enough time to devastate the global economy.

What Iran did NOT do during those 13 days back in June were to:
- Shut down Strait of Hormuz and the rest of the sea routs I mentioned earlier
- Horizontally expanding the conflict that would affect the energy market
- Destroying the bulk of US military bases in the region
- Destroy or capture oil and gas fields under dictatorship tribes in the Persian Gulf

~snip~

If my data here are right, Israel attacked Iran on June 13. The following day, June 14, the Bitcoin market even closed slightly higher, but not significant enough so that we could attribute a changing behavior in the face of a surprising escalation. The next few days were pretty much sideward movements, except perhaps 10 days later when Bitcoin fell below $101,000 but quickly went back to $105,000 the following day. In other words, we could say Bitcoin didn't care.

However, you're probably right that the market could have reacted differently had Iran did what you listed. It could have had a much more devastating effect on the global economy, which Bitcoin isn't entirely insulated from. But they didn't happen. And if Iran didn't do it back then despite deaths to key personalities, why would they do it today?

Anyway, I'm thankful that this discussion is somehow moot already because the attack thought to happen today didn't happen.

[ZAINmalik75]

Bitcoin will react the same way it reacted when the war in Ukraine started or when the Gaza conflict began. I find it funny how many people believe that Trump "the peacemaker" would start a war with Iran. Trump is a guy, who threatens all the time, but in the end, he settles a deal with his opponent and moves on. I don't want to speculate about geopolitical topics in the Economy forum. I still believe that the bearish crypto market will continue and no war around the world would ever help for the Bitcoin price to grow. Less wars and less geopolitical tensions means higher Bitcoin price, not the opposite.

You know what he said to the Iran in the last war, he said I have said a lot and created a lot of fuss that I will attack and now let me attack just two targets, he said to their authorities by contacting them not in public and then the representative of Iran said this in an interview.

Recent reports shared by axios, that around 25 refueling aircraft were born and something is cooking in that region, even on Polymarket, the chances of the attack rose to 36%. It does not matter what Polymarket is saying but if war occurs, the market will dump very hard. Trump can't be the peacemaker, in the Islamic religion, our books says, there will be people who will be the root cause of the problems and war and will call themselves peacemakers. That what he is.

[AmaGold70]

The truth is that , when their is war economic activities slows down drastically, no freedom of movement and people stays indoors, and their is every possibility that every digital business would be very much affected including Bitcoin. Take for instance, if their is war today and people no longer go out to carry out their daily activities and earn their normal daily income, many bitcoin investors will begin to sell their bitcoin investment in other to get money for feeding and other emergency needs, and some other big investors who are benefactors will sell some of their Bitcoin in other to help people who are in the refugee camp, these situation will surely affect the price of Bitcoin negatively .what fuels the growth of bitcoin is scarcity and demand, but if their is drastic Bitcoin sell off as a result of war, their will be serious price dip and will take some time before full recovery.

[Razmirraz]

Bitcoin market reactions are highly volatile and unpredictable in the event of a war, we never know how long the war will last or how severe its impact will be. Amidst such uncertainty, it is likely that Bitcoin will experience an initial price drop as investors tend to choose safer assets such as gold. However, the impact of war will be in favor of Bitcoin if the conflict causes inflation and a decrease in the value of fiat currencies, then in the long term Bitcoin could become a more stable asset and even increase in price, all this because Bitcoin has censorship-resistant properties and cannot be controlled by governments.
The impact of war will leave two scenarios for the price of Bitcoin: its value could decrease during the war or afterward. If inflation occurs due to the impact of the conflict, we could see a recovery in the price of Bitcoin and it could increase in the long term.

[pooya87]

If my data here are right, Israel attacked Iran on June 13. The following day, June 14, the Bitcoin market even closed slightly higher, but not significant enough so that we could attribute a changing behavior in the face of a surprising escalation. The next few days were pretty much sideward movements, except perhaps 10 days later when Bitcoin fell below $101,000 but quickly went back to $105,000 the following day. In other words, we could say Bitcoin didn't care.

Possibly and there is no way for me to say that the drop had a direct link since the timeframe is too small and there usually is a lot of other stuff that affects bitcoin price that makes speculation harder. But when looking at the price you shouldn't just look at June 13.
Markets move mostly based on sentiments not events. For example a shitcoin exchange gets hacked and we see bitcoin market drops because the media makes a lot of noise about it and people panic sell even though it has nothing to do with bitcoin. Then some other time a similar thing happens with another shitcoin exchange and the market doesn't move at all because there isn't that much FUD in the media.

The idea is similar in this situation. They started talking about the attack before the actual thing and the mainstream media was going nuts about it on the days leading to June 13.

But they didn't happen. And if Iran didn't do it back then despite deaths to key personalities, why would they do it today?

It's all about the objective and also knowing that June was a single battle in an ongoing war. You don't use everything you have for one battle that you can win by using your primary weapons. This is exactly why Iran didn't use majority of its power and "tools" at its disposal.
For example the navy and army were never even used. Using the air force was minimal, and majority of the aircrafts remained in underground airbases. Iranian allies were told to stand back (eg. the Yemenis were prepared to enter the field but they were asked not to). Only one branch of Iran's military called the aerospace were used which only activated at most 20% of Iran's missile and drone capabilities. Majority of Iran's missiles weren't even used in those 13 days. All because of what I said at first, this was one battle in an ongoing war and Iranians knew with only a small fraction of their vast power they can crush the enemy.

Anyway, I'm thankful that this discussion is somehow moot already because the attack thought to happen today didn't happen.

It was "supposed to happen" a couple of times in the past 2 months
As I speculated a month ago, so far this has been purely psychological warfare trying to affect Iran's economy. It has had minimal effects. I say so far because as part of US regime's ongoing war against Iran, I believe there is another battle on the horizon in form of an armed conflict. I think it could possibly take place in spring and the most suitable time for the US regime is end of spring. But considering the speed of their demise and the way they are getting desperate, nothing is predictable except the outcome which will be the same as June 2025.

For now it seems like what the US regime learned from June 2025 was that if they start a war with Iran, they'll end up paying a much heavier price and it won't be a war they can win. So they have been seeking alternative ways (which is mainly terrorism) to hurt Iran to weaken Iranians to pave the way for their invasion later.
For example as part of that war I mentioned, the US regime activated its Takfiri terrorist proxies to kill civilians in Iran mainly on January 8 and 9 during a peaceful protest people had regarding the economy and exchange rate fluctuations. They killed 2427 people to be specific.

[Antotena]

The Middle East war is currently the most talked about news in the international media. Bitcoin, which is mostly influenced by US news, may see some changes or volatility around the upcoming Iran vs US and Israel war. Since we are already in the dip end, we may not go too dip. The last time this attack started, the market was more stable than expected and the volatility was very short-lived. This time, we may encounter unexpected events, either positive or negative.

Since when did we have war and Bitcoin start to react to it in general. How many times did we experience bomb blast between some Islamic state and Israel but what happened, the market remain stronger and ready to pump. The only time I think the market will react to war between two countries is that if it involves US and any other countries, let's say North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China. These are the only countries that can trigger Bitcoin market to fall.

In addition, this depend on what the US call, remember the US has the final says. If the US has a war with any other countries and they seems to dominate and finish them at first glance, the market may turn out and do well. In 2020 when this people had a fight with Iran, there was a panic in the market but when it tuned out US was ahead and were ready for them, the Bitcoin market and stock market went back up again, that's to tell you the impact of US in any war.

[Oluwa-btc]

When there are events like war, bitcoin becomes a safe heaven. We've seen this last year and the previous years how price skyrocketed due to theses forces.

When everyone loses hope on the outcome of Bitcoin during insurgency, war and the rest of them, I think that's when it skyrocket more and survive, we've observe so many obstruction that tend to alter the state of Bitcoin but regardless Bitcoin has survived all of that and still standing strong, so even with any crisis now or later enough Bitcoin would fairly react to it though the market may be affected a little bit due to  that but it would surpass it.

[lizarder]

Here's my take. The media says it could drag on for weeks. A prolonged campaign would choke off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz—that's 25% of global supply. Plus, Iran could hit Saudi fields. And Riyadh signed off on the operation. Oil spikes? That's a death sentence for the global economy. Any progress on inflation gets wiped out. Forget about rate cuts from central banks or the Fed.

The Strait of Hormuz plays a crucial role in global oil supplies and if it were closed, the price would spike significantly. I also wonder why other countries haven't been so free to openly attack Iran, given their effective strategy for creating chaos. This is just my personal opinion as they possess a powerful weapon for this as oil is a necessity that cannot be ignored. War can cripple all aspects of life, including economic growth and the impact could be profound if prolonged.

On a broader scale we have seen the impact of war, affecting even the world's economic resources. We hope a war like this never happens, although in some cases it is unavoidable as war can have significant impacts on all sectors. In other words, the war that occurred has killed several sources of the global economy as well as regional economies which have had a direct impact.

[Nothingtodo]

Since the invention of Bitcoin, wars are not a new phenomenon. For example, since the invention of Bitcoin, there have been wars between Ukraine and Russia, wars between Israel and Palestine, wars between Iran and Israel, temporary tensions between India and Pakistan, and temporary conflicts and tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Before and after the war, the Bitcoin market is temporarily affected, but that effect does not last long. If there is a war between Iran and America in the future, there will still be some kind of impact on the Bitcoin market. The market may go between $50,000 and $40,000, so Bitcoin will not be able to reach zero.

[Coyster]

The easy prediction would be that bitcoin price would drop further. A military action by the U.S. in Iran would devastate the economy, sending oil prices up and causing more inflation. So that is bound to create further uncertainty for investors and in such situation, they move their assets out of crypto and into precious metals, like gold or silver.

That said, it could be a good strategy to look to precious metals now. Purchasing bitcoin is also not a bad idea if it falls during the possible conflict, you get it for cheaper and you're sure bitcoin would bounce back sooner or later.

[programmer3666]

Several global news outlets are pointing to this Saturday as a likely date for a strike on Iran. So what does a trader do with that kind of foresight? If war kicks off tomorrow, how does Bitcoin react?

Here's my take. The media says it could drag on for weeks. A prolonged campaign would choke off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz—that's 25% of global supply. Plus, Iran could hit Saudi fields. And Riyadh signed off on the operation. Oil spikes? That's a death sentence for the global economy. Any progress on inflation gets wiped out. Forget about rate cuts from central banks or the Fed.


Still, Bitcoin could actually rip higher—we've seen it before in Middle East conflicts. But $90K is where the rally stalls. Institutional money is fleeing BTC ETFs—fund outflows have been red for a month straight. With liquidity drying up, bears could carve right through that wide support zone from $65K down to $60K. If the operation drags on? Then we're looking at $50K Bitcoin.

My plan is simple—I'll start buying at $60K and keep adding every time we dip below. That's the mining cost floor. Crossing it has always signaled the end of a crypto winter.

That major fear that usually sparks up the market when any talk of war comes out is just like a tradition in the market because everything will just drop fast in price without anything to hold them back, the entire market will just bleed red to the core. Bitcoin always obeys the law of gravity in such situations because traders get motivated to cash out before they enter in to great loss.

[yhiaali3]

No one actually wants war, and I hope that this is just a threat from Trump to scare Iran and get the best terms, but no one can predict Trump’s decisions and crazy actions.

In any case, if war does occur, I expect it to be swift and decisive, as is typical of the United States in its wars, which often involve launching specific strikes on specific locations. Therefore, I hope that the war will not be prolonged or extended, and consequently, the impact on the global economy and markets will be temporary and limited.

But if the United States starts a long war and Iran responds by striking American bases in the region, closing the Strait of Hormuz, and so on, no one can predict the results of this war and its major repercussions, especially on the oil sector.

[MinMan]

War will affect bitcoins similar to all other assets, but I think the major asset which will take a hit will be commodities. Oil will anyhow inflate as the supply will drop down but this will also affect other commodities as people will rush in buying excessive commodities to survive the war. This has been the same situation since centuries where people prefer stocking up on almost every possible commodity thinking they might not be available for a couple of months after war or the prices for these commodities might hike rapidly. War like situation is never good for the economy and it is a common man who has to face the consequences.

As simple your plan is, it is quite effective as well. Investing in every dip is a smart decision but only if you are planning to hold for a really longer duration. You will have to eradicate your fear and emotions while taking this decision. If you could stay firm, you could definitely make some nice profits in the coming years.

[Localhostspeed]

Since the invention of Bitcoin, wars are not a new phenomenon. For example, since the invention of Bitcoin, there have been wars between Ukraine and Russia, wars between Israel and Palestine, wars between Iran and Israel, temporary tensions between India and Pakistan, and temporary conflicts and tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Before and after the war, the Bitcoin market is temporarily affected, but that effect does not last long. If there is a war between Iran and America in the future, there will still be some kind of impact on the Bitcoin market. The market may go between $50,000 and $40,000, so Bitcoin will not be able to reach zero.

There has been multiple wars since Bitcoin has been in existence, we have also experienced one of the worse pandemic in the history of mankind and that was corona virus but heaven did not fall for one day. I think if we are to consider the after effects, I don't think there will be any impact in the world that will happen like pandemic, I mean war can be contained but you can't contained virus and any other deadly mechanisms that will wipe out the entire world.

We focus on Bitcoin forgetting that Bitcoin isn't the only asset that will be affected. Before Bitcoin will be affected, the stock market is going to fall before Bitcoin will likely fall because we have institutional investors that has money on Bitcoin and also on stock. Before they dump their Bitcoin, they are going to first dunk the stock market, that means Bitcoin investora can do a control damage before the rest of the people sell of their Bitcoin.

[dimonstration]

Several global news outlets are pointing to this Saturday as a likely date for a strike on Iran. So what does a trader do with that kind of foresight? If war kicks off tomorrow, how does Bitcoin react?

As if there’s no ongoing war right now on Russia and Ukraine that still not settled while price of Bitcoin hit new ATH while this war is still active.

The war between US and Iran will be short duration in case this will happened since US can’t afford to prolong this war and hit a massive economic repercussions just like what happened to Russia.

Bitcoin price is not tied to war unless it’s a WW3 which is a global war.