If War Comes Tomorrow: How Will Bitcoin React?

[KiaKia]

No one can say for sure because it will be complicated, who is going to war matters, it will be very bad if the likes of America and China goes to war, I believe that these two countries have a major role playing in crypto space.

We can also use the past and present war as an example, everyone thought that crypto won't pump because of Ukraine and russia war and things still go as the past history does.

However it might be I don't pray for war, sometimes what we expect is not always how things will turn out.

[SquallLeonhart]

We are literally in war, it is not a new thing and it has happened many times in the world. Until we go into like some nuclear war, or soldiers dropping everywhere on Europe like some world war three scenario, whatever we have right now is unimportant to the market. We had Ukraine - Russia war, and it is still going on and been 3 or 4 years by now I think and maybe a million people total died from both sides, the confirmed numbers are much less but I doubt they are serious about confirmed numbers at the least.

So we can't really care about any of this and we should realize that it is not going to be important for the market, since the war started we were in bear, reached halving, reached peak, reached back to bear all in the same period because we didn't care.

[Coyster]

Bitcoin price is not tied to war unless it’s a WW3 which is a global war

Bitcoin price is not tied to that, but it is one of the events that affect bitcoins price, partcularly in the short term. When there is an armed conflict of a large magnitude, it affects the global economy and inflation rises. Following that, investor sentiments shifts to the negative and more often than not they move their assets out of volatile markets like bitcoin.

We can also use the past and present war as an example, everyone thought that crypto won't pump because of Ukraine and russia war and things still go as the past history does.

It is about what happens in the short term and also the countries involved and the consequences of the conflict globally. Ukraine-Russia war is already a prolonged conflict, but it definitely had its impact in the first few weeks of the invasion. And the same is bound to happen if the U.S. attacks Iran and they retaliate in their own capacity.

[DrBeer]

Several global news outlets are pointing to this Saturday as a likely date for a strike on Iran. So what does a trader do with that kind of foresight? If war kicks off tomorrow, how does Bitcoin react?

Here's my take. The media says it could drag on for weeks. A prolonged campaign would choke off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz—that's 25% of global supply. Plus, Iran could hit Saudi fields. And Riyadh signed off on the operation. Oil spikes? That's a death sentence for the global economy. Any progress on inflation gets wiped out. Forget about rate cuts from central banks or the Fed.

Still, Bitcoin could actually rip higher—we've seen it before in Middle East conflicts. But $90K is where the rally stalls. Institutional money is fleeing BTC ETFs—fund outflows have been red for a month straight. With liquidity drying up, bears could carve right through that wide support zone from $65K down to $60K. If the operation drags on? Then we're looking at $50K Bitcoin.

My plan is simple—I'll start buying at $60K and keep adding every time we dip below. That's the mining cost floor. Crossing it has always signaled the end of a crypto winter.

I'm not sure that Bitcoin will be chosen as an asset for preserving value in the current situation, after its 50% drop from its peak. Most likely, gold will once again become the asset of choice for minimizing risk. But I do agree that a blow to the totalitarian regime of the ayatollahs will be accompanied by cowardly revenge, and the blows will not be directed at the main enemy (there are no resources for this), but will be classic terrorist attacks on weak and unprotected neighboring countries, which could lead, for example, to temporary disruptions in oil supplies from the region.
Of course, it would be ideal if the Iranian tyranny fell without war, and the people of Iran gained freedom and the right to live freely and securely, being a full participant in the world market and profiting from resources belonging to the PEOPLE of Iran, not a handful of crazed murderers.

The bottom line is that it is unlikely to be possible to make money on Bitcoin in this situation, but it seems possible to do so on bets: "A trader who previously made $278,000 betting on Israeli strikes against Iran has opened new positions on possible US intervention.
He bet $24,000 on a scenario by the end of this month and $40,000 by the end of next month.
In the event of an escalation, the potential profit could be around $240,000."

[lizarder]

Bitcoin price is not tied to war unless it’s a WW3 which is a global war

Bitcoin price is not tied to that, but it is one of the events that affect bitcoins price, partcularly in the short term. When there is an armed conflict of a large magnitude, it affects the global economy and inflation rises. Following that, investor sentiments shifts to the negative and more often than not they move their assets out of volatile markets like bitcoin.

Although generally unrelated, the effects of a prolonged war can affect the Bitcoin price because people tend to move their assets to more stable assets. The short-term effects may be quite pronounced, as we have seen the correlation, with Bitcoin experiencing a deep correction, although it eventually recovers gradually. Meanwhile, the global economy and recession may be most impacted when a prolonged war occurs, as nearly all sectors experience significant problems from the effects.

We can also use the past and present war as an example, everyone thought that crypto won't pump because of Ukraine and russia war and things still go as the past history does.

It is about what happens in the short term and also the countries involved and the consequences of the conflict globally. Ukraine-Russia war is already a prolonged conflict, but it definitely had its impact in the first few weeks of the invasion. And the same is bound to happen if the U.S. attacks Iran and they retaliate in their own capacity.

You're correct because in short-term situations, we've seen the impact on Bitcoin, such as during the Ukraine-Russia war, although it didn't last long for Bitcoin, as it rebounded in a relatively short time. If a war between the US and Iran were to break out, it would have a significant impact on the global economy and could cause problems for global oil prices, so we hope it never happens.

[icebar]

If a war breaks out, it will definitely affect Bitcoin. Especially the possibility of a war with America and Iran in recent times. Although Bitcoin will not stop due to war, if war breaks out in some such countries, then it will be very difficult to bring that situation to a favorable one. If war breaks out in Iran for some reason, the amount of oil supplied worldwide through the Hormuz Strait will stop, which will affect everything related to production, including food products. At that time, people will not be anxious about Bitcoin, but they will have various doubts about how they will survive. It is also true that at that time people will definitely accept Bitcoin to save themselves from inflation, although I am not on the side of war, but that is the reality. Those who think that Bitcoin will fall, may actually see a big rise in Bitcoin.

[ameerhamza24]

Several global news outlets are pointing to this Saturday as a likely date for a strike on Iran. So what does a trader do with that kind of foresight? If war kicks off tomorrow, how does Bitcoin react?

Here's my take. The media says it could drag on for weeks. A prolonged campaign would choke off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz—that's 25% of global supply. Plus, Iran could hit Saudi fields. And Riyadh signed off on the operation. Oil spikes? That's a death sentence for the global economy. Any progress on inflation gets wiped out. Forget about rate cuts from central banks or the Fed.



Still, Bitcoin could actually rip higher—we've seen it before in Middle East conflicts. But $90K is where the rally stalls. Institutional money is fleeing BTC ETFs—fund outflows have been red for a month straight. With liquidity drying up, bears could carve right through that wide support zone from $65K down to $60K. If the operation drags on? Then we're looking at $50K Bitcoin.

My plan is simple—I'll start buying at $60K and keep adding every time we dip below. That's the mining cost floor. Crossing it has always signaled the end of a crypto winter.

Wow, this is really tense… I honestly don’t know how it’ll play out in the next few days. Usually when something big like this hits, everything dumps first — stocks, crypto, you name it. Bitcoin sometimes drops at first, then people start buying once the panic calms down.
Oil going crazy through the Strait of Hormuz would obviously mess with inflation and interest rate stuff. That makes it tricky for BTC in the short term because everyone gets scared of risk assets.
About $60K — yeah, I get why people see it as a floor, close to mining cost and all. But in reality, the price can stay below that for a while if the market mood is bad. So I wouldn’t just blindly assume it’s a guaranteed bottom.
Personally, I’d just scale in slowly, maybe buy some dips, and not stress about timing perfectly. If things get really volatile, it could be a chance, but you’ve got to watch your risk too.

[coin-investor]

Several global news outlets are pointing to this Saturday as a likely date for a strike on Iran. So what does a trader do with that kind of foresight? If war kicks off tomorrow, how does Bitcoin react?

Wars are happening around the world, but if it involves a superpower and it's happening where the supply of the most important commodities that run many economies is located, then this is a serious concern and very troubling, and that includes the cryptocurrency market, which reacts to news about the world economy.
So yes, it will be much more serious then pandemic, I guess. But it will not reach a point where it loses its value, and it will eventually recover if there is a ceasefire or it ends.

[goldkingcoiner]

I am concerned about how people care more about Bitcoin than the obvious end of life on earth if world war 3 starts tomorrow. Because if it does start, my first thought will not be: "how will Bitcoin react?" but rather "how much time do we have left until the nukes hit?". A world war will almost certainly become nuclear and that alone will lead to the end of life on earth. Perhaps there will be a few people left, walking a desolate, irradiated desert of a planet. But at some point even they will succumb because life on earth will not be sustainable.

In short: the dead do not care about Bitcoin.

[Alpen]

It would be too complicated to predict. There is a lot of things that can happen during different phases. If the US regime starts a war with Iran then Iran will start retaliating hard...

We’ve already seen Iran’s "harsh response" during the conflict with Israel—it wasn't much. This regime is only tough when it comes to cracking down on its own people. If the people get their hands on weapons in the chaos of war, it won't be a war against the US or Israel; it will be a full-scale civil war.

[Alpen]

We might learn something from Israel and US' attack on Iran last year, though. That was a serious one. Key political and military leaders, even nuclear scientists, were killed. The supreme leader was even targeted. Bombs on nuclear facilities were dropped. Facilities were destroyed. Iran even retaliated against the US by firing missiles at the US military base in Qatar.

That didn't affect the market, though. Bitcoin didn't care. It continued to rise and even hit an ATH a few months later. It might just be the same this time around, especially because sellers have already done their thing.

You’re right that Bitcoin held up during the first phase of the conflict. It stayed strong only because we didn’t reach the second phase: regime change.

This time, Phase 2 is inevitable. The US won’t be able to negotiate a "Venezuela-style" transition by simply swapping out the top leaders for someone else from the same ruling clique. We are looking at a total power vacuum, and that period of instability will hit both the oil market and Bitcoin hard.

[Alpen]

Bitcoin will react the same way it reacted when the war in Ukraine started or when the Gaza conflict began. I find it funny how many people believe that Trump "the peacemaker" would start a war with Iran. Trump is a guy, who threatens all the time, but in the end, he settles a deal with his opponent and moves on. I don't want to speculate about geopolitical topics in the Economy forum. I still believe that the bearish crypto market will continue and no war around the world would ever help for the Bitcoin price to grow. Less wars and less geopolitical tensions means higher Bitcoin price, not the opposite.

Trump is famous for his "art of the fold"—threatening big and then settling. However, you don't mobilize a massive, taxpayer-funded military and naval force for nothing. It reminds me of the lead-up to the invasion of Ukraine: plenty of people stayed in denial despite the sheer volume of troops stationed right at the border. The hardware tells a different story than the rhetoric.

[Alpen]

Maybe we could say the war was between two nations and that corona virus outbreak the world was was never a war. What if OP is literally meaning, World War III. How would the price and Bitcoin react. The same thing that happen when these two outbreak occurred will be the same thing that will happen if WW III will happen. The time will be different.

Actually, World War III was averted by Trump. If we look at the potential aggressors—China, North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba—the latter two have already been sidelined. China has come to realize that their business interests in the Western Hemisphere are at stake. Meanwhile, Iran has been defeated by Israel, and its regional proxy forces have been scattered.

This leaves only China, which will be dealt with after the situations in Cuba and Iran are finalized. I don’t believe China will be able to maintain its maritime trade; a naval blockade is more likely, which would effectively dismantle the PRC's economic power.