Has the classic 4-year cycle already been broken?

[DailyTrader001]

For more than a decade Bitcoin followed a very recognizable rhythm:

halving → hype → retail → altseason → crash → accumulation

But the last cycle started looking different.

Now we have:
ETFs absorbing supply daily
long-term holders not selling into rallies
price reacting more to liquidity than hype
weaker altseason rotations

Historically retail created tops.
Now capital inflows come before retail even arrives.

So I’m wondering:
Are we still in cycles…
or slowly moving into a supply-shock market structure where corrections are shorter and bear markets become shallow?

Because if ETFs keep buying during dips, the old strategy
“wait for next bear market”
may stop working entirely.

Curious what older members think:

Is the 4-year cycle ending — or just evolving?

[NeuroticFish]

halving → hype → retail → altseason → crash → accumulation

1. I think that this topic should go to Speculation sub
2. This "chart" is wrong because it's overcompicated, e.g. altseason doesn't really exist, most alts are short-time hype based. Retail is not a separate step, they are part of the market like everybody else.

I'd go maybe for: halving → hype → crash → accumulation

And this "simple" cycle is imho still on, given that we are from 126k down to 60-67k

[Stalker22]

Every single time, people have said that the four-year cycle is dead (since 2017 at least), but they have always been wrong.

ETFs didnt "break" the cycle - they merely created another story about the same old human greed.  Institutional money is just as flighty as retail money during the downside of a particular macroeconomic environment; institutional funds sell faster and larger than retail funds do, so, I would still refrain from expecting shallower bear markets.

[Crypto Jackass]

Feels more like evolution than extinction.

ETFs changed the flow of capital, but Bitcoin is still tied to liquidity cycles and macro conditions. As long as global liquidity expands and contracts, you’ll likely still see cycles — just less dramatic and maybe more compressed.

The 4-year rhythm probably doesn’t disappear… it just matures.