The Bitcoin Trump Bump is still going strong! (uh oh)

[legiteum]

People often talk about how the "Trump Bump" isn't real, or didn't happen, or has since been "unbumped".

Recall that we're talking about the 2024 US elections wherein the crypto industry basically bought the election with hundreds of millions in campaign donations, in exchange for favorable regulation for Bitcoin, and even the promise for US taxpayers being forced to prop up with Bitcoin market by the Federal government buying Bitcoin on the open market. People called it, "the Trump Bump" for the price of Bitcoin.

I'll offer a counterpoint: the Trump Bump is real, and we're still seeing the effects of the Trump Bump, and that's the only reason Bitcoin is only down by 50% so far.

Just a few days ago Trump's son said that Bitcoin would go to $1 million. The US president--the most blatantly corrupt and self-dealing in US history--himself owns $billions in Bitcoin and has vowed to prop up the price of Bitcoin in any way he can. Hundreds of Trump's employees (called, "Republicans" here in the USA ) are proposing many ways to use US taxpayer money in order to prop up the price of Bitcoin.

But politics is a volatile thing, and countries have a way of turning on their politicians people asking the new regime doing the opposite what the old regime did. In other words, if Trump fell out of favor among US voters (say if their stock market investments collapsed in value and they were pissed), the People would want a new regime to reject everything the previous regime stood for, and, thanks to the 2024 crypto election spending, Bitcoin and crypto generally is almost universally seen as "a Trump thing".

But what happens when "Trump things" become manifestly uncool?

My thesis here is that... this hasn't happened yet. Yes, we're seeing a dip in the market, and Trump's approval rating has dipped as well, but he is still firmly in power and still very popular among a voting majority Americans (don't look at "approval rating", look at whether people will vote the other way).

Hence I believe that the current price level, even with its recent dip, has still priced in the Trump Bump.

Many think Trump and his party will keep winning US elections, and that might be the case. But Bitcoin's market price, in my view, still largely depends on that.

[Mia Chloe]

People often talk about how the "Trump Bump" isn't real, or didn't happen, or has since been "unbumped".
Recall that we're talking about the 2024 US elections wherein the crypto industry basically bought the election with hundreds of millions in campaign donations, in exchange for favorable regulation for Bitcoin, and even the promise for US taxpayers being forced to prop up with Bitcoin market by the Federal government buying Bitcoin on the open market. People called it, "the Trump Bump" for the price of Bitcoin.

I read through your write up and I agree with some points and first is the impact of the US government however what I don't agree with is claims of a supportive impact simply because the orchestrated bull in the first place was a warning sign to the opposite momentum.

This is the bull with one of the highest price range and fluctuations because fundamentals has a strong hold and I'm of the opinion that hold wil continue to grow and get stronger as the government stylishly hold more and more bitcoins. Yeah adoption is good but at what cost?

[coolcoinz]

and that's the only reason Bitcoin is only down by 50% so far.

LOL

I'll counter with the fact that bitcoin is down by 50% exactly because of Trump and his tariff tweets and insider trading.

I'd like to remind you that the first large dump a few months ago happened because Trump decided to tweet about imposing tariffs on the weekend, while bitcoin market was the only one trading and liquidity was low. That broke the uptrend and made people believe the bull market is at its end.

[legiteum]

and that's the only reason Bitcoin is only down by 50% so far.

I'll counter with the fact that bitcoin is down by 50% exactly because of Trump and his tariff tweets and insider trading.

I'd like to remind you that the first large dump a few months ago happened because Trump decided to tweet about imposing tariffs on the weekend, while bitcoin market was the only one trading and liquidity was low. That broke the uptrend and made people believe the bull market is at its end.

I agree that Trump does/says a lot of stupid things that hurt the USA, and that translates to Bitcoin going down along with the rest of the market.

But...

This is what the price looks like when the US leader is at least trying (and personally financially incentivized) to prop UP the price. Imagine if the US leadership was actively against its price? In other words, imagine a President Warren Buffet, who called Bitcoin "financial rat poison" and made investing in it uncool, and also by implication released any hope of Bitcoin being propped up by US taxpayers. Or even imagine that the next US president has a more libertarian "hands off" approach to US markets, telling people it's uncool for a government to prop up any particular investment decision and being completely neutral toward Bitcoin. That would remove a huge pillar of Bitcoin price support.

There are probably millions of Bitcoin investors right now who are convinced that Bitcoin cannot go down very much in price because the US government will bail them out*. This puts a lower bound on the market no matter what damage Trump does to the US economy.



(* "Bitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrence. Based on a free-market ideology, bitcoin was invented in 2008 when..." -- Wikipedia....  ).

[Alpha Marine]

This is what the price looks like when the US leader is at least trying (and personally financially incentivized) to prop UP the price. Imagine if the US leadership was actively against its price? In other words, imagine a President Warren Buffet, who called Bitcoin "financial rat poison" and made investing in it uncool, and also by implication released any hope of Bitcoin being propped up by US taxpayers. Or even imagine that the next US president has a more libertarian "hands off" approach to US markets, telling people it's uncool for a government to prop up any particular investment decision and being completely neutral toward Bitcoin. That would remove a huge pillar of Bitcoin price support.

Trump was actively against Bitcoin in his first term. He made a series of tweets calling Bitcoin a thing for criminals. Those tweets are still up to this day; if you search for them, you will see them. Bitcoin at that time did not go to hell, and it did not crash lower than what it is now.
I agree with what Coolcoinz said that the tariff wars and policies are part of the reason the bitcoin market is like this. A more stable geopolitical scene would be better for Bitcoin.
So while I agree that Trump winning the election played a role in Bitcoin price pumping at that time, it is also true that his unstable foreign and domestic policies and illiberalism are part of the reason why the price is down by 50%.
It wouldn't have been this bad if it were not for him.

[xbetz.io]

I’m not convinced the price action can be reduced to a political narrative. Liquidity cycles, ETF flows, macro conditions and rate expectations probably have a bigger structural impact than election dynamics alone. Political alignment may influence sentiment short term but long term BTC tends to follow liquidity and monetary policy expansion. Attributing a 50% drawdown purely to a ‘Trump bump’ or its persistence seems overly simplified.

[legiteum]

Trump was actively against Bitcoin in his first term. He made a series of tweets calling Bitcoin a thing for criminals. Those tweets are still up to this day; if you search for them, you will see them. Bitcoin at that time did not go to hell, and it did not crash lower than what it is now.
I agree with what Coolcoinz said that the tariff wars and policies are part of the reason the bitcoin market is like this. A more stable geopolitical scene would be better for Bitcoin.
So while I agree that Trump winning the election played a role in Bitcoin price pumping at that time, it is also true that his unstable foreign and domestic policies and illiberalism are part of the reason why the price is down by 50%.
It wouldn't have been this bad if it were not for him.

That was all before Trump himself bought $billions in Bitcoin and made himself his own crypto company (he probably thought to himself, "a thing for criminals? hey wait a minute that's me!"  ).

To this day Trump and his party are talking about a "Bitcoin bailout" and proposing serious legislation that would force US taxpayers to pay for the bailout. I agree that he has also done things to make the price go down, but my point is that it could go down a lot more if this support were to go away.

I agree that a stable market without Trump would have been better for Bitcoin's price in the long run. Before the 2024 elections I was fond of pointing out that Bitcoin went up 500% under president Biden. Miss him yet? 

[Donneski]

But what happens when "Trump things" become manifestly uncool?

That’s a fair question. Crypto narratives often attach themselves to political or cultural movements and when those lose popularity, sentiment can flip fast.

My thesis here is that... this hasn't happened yet.

I agree that we haven’t seen a full narrative reversal yet but markets usually front-run political shifts so the impact might show up long before voters actually change direction.

...But Bitcoin's market price, in my view, still largely depends on that.

I’m not fully convinced. Bitcoin has outlived multiple political cycles and its long-term trends still seem more driven by liquidity and protocol cycles than by any single politician.

[legiteum]

I’m not fully convinced. Bitcoin has outlived multiple political cycles and its long-term trends still seem more driven by liquidity and protocol cycles than by any single politician.

I agree it's partially driven by those other things, but we've never before had a cycle like the current cycle. In 2024 the crypto industry was the single largest donor to the US elections, even bigger than the oil companies, Big Pharma, and so on. That never happened before. Then there's Trump himself, who ran as a staunchly pro-crypto, pro-Bitcoin candidate who even owns hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin himself personally.

And Trump is arguably the most powerful US president in history, the one who simply ignores the US constitution (including the recent Supreme Court decision, wherein he threatened the families of the justices when they went against him) and his voters don't care at all.

I don't think you can call that, "a single politician" .

[suzanne5223]

People often talk about how the "Trump Bump" isn't real, or didn't happen, or has since been "unbumped".

Those who make the claim seem not to be aware of the impact tariff increase in every market setting, and since Bitcoin trades against the US dollar, there's no way the dump won't be real.

Recall that we're talking about the 2024 US elections wherein the crypto industry basically bought the election with hundreds of millions in campaign donations, in exchange for favorable regulation for Bitcoin, and even the promise for US taxpayers being forced to prop up with Bitcoin market by the Federal government buying Bitcoin on the open market. People called it, "the Trump Bump" for the price of Bitcoin.

I believe the President's team understands that the only way to win the election and garner more support from the people is through the acknowledgement of an innovative currency (Bitcoin), which manages to create a special bond between people worldwide, regardless of skin color, ethnicity, and geographical boundaries.

and that's the only reason Bitcoin is only down by 50% so far.

LOL

I'll counter with the fact that bitcoin is down by 50% exactly because of Trump and his tariff tweets and insider trading.

I'd like to remind you that the first large dump a few months ago happened because Trump decided to tweet about imposing tariffs on the weekend, while bitcoin market was the only one trading and liquidity was low. That broke the uptrend and made people believe the bull market is at its end.

Yes, his statement does trigger the dump, but what makes the tariff plan tweet more effective is that he (Trump) made the statement after he sold a lot of
Bitcoin and following the Binance follow the same thing, so a huge sellof trigger the fud of the bull market was over when he posted the tweet