Michael Saylor says quantum threat to Bitcoin is more than 10 years away

[Oshosondy]

What do you think about this?

It was said few years ago as if quantum computer bitcoin vulnerability will be possible in few years more but only to found out that people are just postponing when the vulnerability can begin as another 10 years havr been added not only according to this news but according to what I am seeing online.

According to this news, Michael Saylor said it may take more than 10 years before the vulnerability, and that if something like it is approaching and there is any need for imminent upgrade, that prompt coordinated software upgrades across global banking systems, internet infrastructure, consumer devices, artificial intelligence networks and crypto protocols, including bitcoin.

Some people are only making people panic by constantly posting about bitcoin quantum vulnerability.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/saylor-says-quantum-threat-to-bitcoin-is-more-than-10-years-out-expects-coordinated-global-upgrade-if-risk-emerges

[BitGoba]

When slightly more powerful quantum computers appear which will certainly be at least 20 years from nowthe first things to be destroyed will be the dollar, euro, and other fiat currencies, banks, Visa, and Mastercard, long before Bitcoin because they rely on weaker cryptography.

[fikrett]

We can just sway these articles off under the rug, until the problem becomes real and there would be no solution to it..

But it will be worked through and everything will be fine. Saylor is not the first to "alarm" about it.

[Dave1]

At least Saylor has recognized that it's a threat rather than dismissing it as something like a FUD because it's going to be real in the next 4 years or so. Even the co-author of BIP-360 Ethan Heilman says that,

“Three years until it activates. This assumes two and a half years to get the BIPs done and the code reviewed and tested. Assuming everyone wants it, half a year to activate,” he tells Cointelegraph

https://magazine.cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-7-years-upgrade-post-quantum-bip-360-co-author/

So in his estimates, 7 years is enough for everyone to get ready. But I think they should really work and coordinate to be able to catch up on how quick quantum threat will be in the future.

[ColdWalletGuy]

When slightly more powerful quantum computers appear which will certainly be at least 20 years from nowthe first things to be destroyed will be the dollar, euro, and other fiat currencies, banks, Visa, and Mastercard, long before Bitcoin because they rely on weaker cryptography.

I don’t think it’s something to panic about right now. Quantum computing is still far from being able to break Bitcoin’s cryptography in any practical way.

It’s good that people are talking about it, but Bitcoin can be upgraded if needed. We’ve had years of development and improvements already. For now, it feels more like a long-term thing to watch rather than an immediate threat.

[betswift]

When slightly more powerful quantum computers appear which will certainly be at least 20 years from nowthe first things to be destroyed will be the dollar, euro, and other fiat currencies, banks, Visa, and Mastercard, long before Bitcoin because they rely on weaker cryptography.

I don’t think it’s something to panic about right now. Quantum computing is still far from being able to break Bitcoin’s cryptography in any practical way.

It’s good that people are talking about it, but Bitcoin can be upgraded if needed. We’ve had years of development and improvements already. For now, it feels more like a long-term thing to watch rather than an immediate threat.

You think why Saylor, of all peeps, is talking about it ?

Because his bags are under the line, no matter how far the risk is..

[fikrett]

At least Saylor has recognized that it's a threat rather than dismissing it as something like a FUD because it's going to be real in the next 4 years or so. Even the co-author of BIP-360 Ethan Heilman says that,

“Three years until it activates. This assumes two and a half years to get the BIPs done and the code reviewed and tested. Assuming everyone wants it, half a year to activate,” he tells Cointelegraph

https://magazine.cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-7-years-upgrade-post-quantum-bip-360-co-author/

So in his estimates, 7 years is enough for everyone to get ready. But I think they should really work and coordinate to be able to catch up on how quick quantum threat will be in the future.

When it will appear first hand, it won't be on mass scale, imo.. The quantums wouldn't be like buying a lock for a safe.. rather, the case would probably be that BTC will not be the first target of it at all! But to be prepared is to be in a peace of mind.

[internetional]

The quantum threat to Bitcoin will not become reality tomorrow, but that is not a reason to completely ignore the topic. It is important to discuss whether the ecosystem is ready for migration.

The "10+ years" timeline is calculated in an unclear way - progress in quantum computing is not linear. And the risk is not only that everything could be broken at once, but also that it could be compromised gradually, and possibly even unnoticed.

I think it makes sense to avoid address reuse and not confuse low probability with zero risk.

[goldkingcoiner]

What do you think about this?

It was said few years ago as if quantum computer bitcoin vulnerability will be possible in few years more but only to found out that people are just postponing when the vulnerability can begin as another 10 years havr been added not only according to this news but according to what I am seeing online.

According to this news, Michael Saylor said it may take more than 10 years before the vulnerability, and that if something like it is approaching and there is any need for imminent upgrade, that prompt coordinated software upgrades across global banking systems, internet infrastructure, consumer devices, artificial intelligence networks and crypto protocols, including bitcoin.

Some people are only making people panic by constantly posting about bitcoin quantum vulnerability.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/saylor-says-quantum-threat-to-bitcoin-is-more-than-10-years-out-expects-coordinated-global-upgrade-if-risk-emerges

He is not a physicist nor any other kind of scientist. Why would I care about what he has to say about topics he knows nothing about? Don't get me wrong, I have huge respect for the guy but he should stay in his lane.

Quantum computers are a pipedream.

[rat03gopoh]

the first things to be destroyed will be the dollar, euro, and other fiat currencies, banks, Visa, and Mastercard, long before Bitcoin because they rely on weaker cryptography.

Is that true?

• Is QC(s) being developed solely by amateurs, or by known companies, or by secretive corporations funded by wealthy nations?
• Is fintech the first target of attack, and are they already measuring the consequences?
• Or will the financial sector, information systems, energy, or the defense systems of certain countries be the first to be hit?
• Is the crypto industry the only financial sector without legal protection that can be attacked at will?

[Hazink]

When you hear about quantum computers and their threat, the first thing people rush to mention is bitcoin being at risk. While all fingers are always pointing at Bitcoin when all digital systems are also at risk, there might be less to worry about Bitcoin then, but the worry might be focused more on the catastrophes which it will cause, breaking high-level security which protects sensitive information, security risk for countries with top high-tech, if Quantum Computing eventually becomes a reality, then only those who have built and upgraded their system with Post Quantum technology will survive.

[sunsilk]

For the others who have other way of understanding Bitcoin, this means to them that Bitcoin is around 10 years left.

Some people are only making people panic by constantly posting about bitcoin quantum vulnerability.

I agree, they're making people panic from posting about this quantum threat to Bitcoin. Why are they only looking at it with Bitcoin but not with the banks and other financial institutions that can also be threatened about it?

I guess that this is another way for people to panic and decide for themselves to start dumping the Bitcoin's they have and move somewhere else leaving this market.

[aoluain]

When slightly more powerful quantum computers appear which will certainly be at least 20 years from nowthe first things to be destroyed will be the dollar, euro, and other fiat currencies, banks, Visa, and Mastercard, long before Bitcoin because they rely on weaker cryptography.

I don’t think it’s something to panic about right now. Quantum computing is still far from being able to break Bitcoin’s cryptography in any practical way.

It’s good that people are talking about it, but Bitcoin can be upgraded if needed. We’ve had years of development and improvements already. For now, it feels more like a long-term thing to watch rather than an immediate threat.

Of course its nothing to panic about now.

Dose anyone really believe that software developers are not actually working with a mindset that
QC is coming and will be a thing in the future?

and cant QC be designed to "increase" security systems and not solely designed to attack them?
of course they can....and will

any credible threat would prompt coordinated software upgrades across global digital systems.

and it wont just be Bitcoin which could be threatened, everything, Banks, governments, lawyers offices,
schools, libraries, granny and grandads home PC.....everything.

[Mame89]

The issue of quantum computing has indeed become a source of weakness and concern for all parties in the community. If quantum computing can break into Bitcoin wallets, the potential for hidden supply could return to haunt the market. It's currently estimated that around 3–4 million BTC from the early mining era are now lost, equivalent to nearly 18% of the total supply, possibly including the 1 million Bitcoin in Satoshi's wallet. If some of these coins were suddenly reactivated, the market supply structure could drastically change and trigger psychological shock. This issue has grown stronger with the development of quantum computing, which theoretically has the potential to break into old wallets with exposed public keys.

But what's clear is that I believe Bitcoin won't collapse because of quantum computing. Realistically, if quantum computing develops in 10 or 20 years, Bitcoin will also experience an upgrade. Bitcoin is an evolving technology. Quantum computing isn't the end of Bitcoin. It's more like a great dragon at the far end of the map and before it reaches it blacksmiths will be ready to create dragon proof armor.

[Fiatless]

When you hear about quantum computers and their threat, the first thing people rush to mention is bitcoin being at risk. While all fingers are always pointing at Bitcoin when all digital systems are also at risk, there might be less to worry about Bitcoin then, but the worry might be focused more on the catastrophes which it will cause, breaking high-level security which protects sensitive information, security risk for countries with top high-tech, if Quantum Computing eventually becomes a reality, then only those who have built and upgraded their system with Post Quantum technology will survive.

He also described the crypto sector as the “most sophisticated cybersecurity community,” pointing to the multi-factor authentication and hardware key protections commonly used to secure digital assets.

In his view, the procedures required to move Bitcoin are significantly more rigorous than the security standards used for traditional bank wires or stock trading systems.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/saylor-says-quantum-threat-to-bitcoin-is-more-than-10-years-out-expects-coordinated-global-upgrade-if-risk-emerges
I agree with Michael Saylor's views on this matter. The Bitcoin community is proactive in terms of security. The threats that Quantum computers pose to Bitcoin are not as serious as portrayed by the media. People might lose more of their fiat to this threat than to Bitcoin. We just have to keep getting the right information on how to overcome the effect of this threat. 

[bangjoe]

This concern arises for all bitcoin holders because it continues to be associated with bitcoin as the highest security law in a cryptographic system that to this day there is no way to break it, then is the idea of a large computer that makes it possible to do that, but I think Bitcoin is the last thing that becomes a security wall, because if Bitcoin is successfully breached then banking, our data, every company and others are much closer to being hacked by quantum computers, because it is more vulnerable than bitcoin.

Don't worry too much, even if it can there must be a solution, people will not be silent about something that threatens this, I will not say that bitcoin security will be eternal but there are always ways to maintain it.

[CryptoYar]

BIP 360 has already been officially included in technical to-do list of Bitcoin group, showing that network is living system capable of fixing itself far earlier than threat can happen.
More simply, any machine that can crack Bitcoin will also break global banking and military secrets, meaning, whole digital world will probably be improved to newer levels at same time. And I think idea of quantum end of the world at once is dream because Bitcoin can already reach greater safety than most normal banks, due to its power to grow through updates and its use of hidden codes.

[d5000]

“Three years until it activates. This assumes two and a half years to get the BIPs done and the code reviewed and tested. Assuming everyone wants it, half a year to activate,” he tells Cointelegraph

https://magazine.cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-7-years-upgrade-post-quantum-bip-360-co-author/

I believe here he refers to his first idea for the BIP, which would add a softfork which blocks unsafe signatures after some time.

But it has to be debated if this step is really necessary, taking into account that "short exposure attacks" (stealing coins in 10 minutes) are still much farther away than the attacks they're considering now, and non-reused addresses are safe until then (and after that moment too, as you can prove you own an address before moving the coins, and this proof can be required before you expose the public key).

Adding a quantum safe cryptosystem to TapScript should be much faster and the only really "required" step to avoid the "quantum apocalypse".

And even if the assumption of 100,000 qubits to crack RSA/ECDSA is correct, then it's still a scenario where it would take weeks or months to attack a single key with the most powerful QC of the world. In the article it's estimated that this scenario is 9 years away (2035). But even the article (who's quite "pro quantum") admits that the main problem is error correction, and while important progress has been made, it is still very difficult to keep an array of thousands of qubits stable.

[laijsica]

There is a lot of criticism about the technical strengthening of QC and the creation of threads on Bitcoin, but most of them are aimed at creating panic. With the development of technology, new features are added over time, as well as the need to strengthen the weak structure of digital assets. Although AI technology provides instant information on many topics, it mainly combines the data generated by the human brain and spread all over the world and presents it to you. The mathematical aspects of cryptography and upgrading the system are an ongoing process. QC threads are part of the campaign that the government has launched at different times to weaken Bitcoin. But Bitcoin will become stronger in future.

[davis196]

1.Since when did Michael Saylor became an expert in quantum computers? I've never believed that he is such a tech-savvy guy.
2.Michael Saylor can say whatever he wants. Most of his opinions are speculations anyway. He can say that Bitcoin will hit 100K dollars tomorrow. Would you believe him?
The Danish Saxo bank made a prediction that quantum computing would become a threat to Bitcoin THIS YEAR and this would crash the Bitcoin price. They were right with the BTC price crash but we will have to wait for about 10 months to see if their prediction about quantum computers would become true(probably not).