b]Bitcoin Solo Mining Calculator — live odds, luck score & probability timeline

[mineshop.eu]

Bitcoin Solo Mining Calculator — live odds, luck score & probability timeline

Built a free tool for solo miners: https://mineshop.eu/bitcoin-solo-mining-calculator

Pulls live difficulty + hashrate from mempool.space and BTC price from CoinGecko. Just enter your hashrate and it does the rest.

What it calculates:

• Probability per block, per day, and cumulative over 1 week / 1 month / 1 year
• Expected wait time in plain English (days, months, years)
• Luck score — enter how long you've been mining, it tells you if you're early, on track, or statistically unlucky
• Solo vs pool comparison — daily/yearly USD estimate, jackpot value, variance

Built-in presets: NerdQAxe++ (4.8 TH/s), NerdOctaxe (9.6 TH/s), Avalon Nano 3S (6 TH/s), Avalon Q (90 TH/s). Custom hashrate works too — TH/s, GH/s or PH/s.

The math:

Code:

P(block)     = your_hashrate / network_hashrate
P(N blocks)  = 1 − (1 − p)^N
Expected wait = (network_hashrate / your_hashrate) × 10 min

No login, no email, free. Works on mobile.

Feedback welcome — if there's a feature missing (difficulty adjustment countdown, pool fee break-even, etc.) drop it below.

[blockhilltop]

Very nice overall. This may become my new fav solo calculator.

Is the network hashrate the 1 week average, 3 day average or closer to a real time hashrate? Also curious where you're getting this data?

I like the mining duration section, to help calculate one's total luck in given duration. Similarly, can you add a field for total shares submitted to produce one's luck? I know as difficulty is adjusted over time the total number of shares during each period should result in different luck, maybe have total shares within X duration (ie 25T shares within 6 months).

Great work overall, thanks for sharing.

[walletrecovery]

This is a very interesting topic, but this guy tried to find a block, and in return he wasted a lot of time and received large electric bills.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yF2kbq4YIcY
This is very sad and sad when we see the decline of the first cryptocurrency BTC

[FP91G]

I calculated 10 petahashes and a 1 in 3 chance of finding a block per year. Nine Bitmain Antminer S23 Hyd 3U (1.16 Ph) ASICs are roughly 10 petahashes, and my price is 5 cents.
If one ASIC consumes 11 kilowatts per hour, then nine ASICs consume 99 kW per hour, or 2,376 kWh per day, or 866,640 kWh per year. This costs $43,332 and has a 1 in 3 chance of finding a block per year.