Will Bitcoin price ever reach ONE MILLION dollars per coin?

[headingnorth]

And if you believe so, how will it do that?

But it seems to me all the many influencers (Michael Saylor, Cathie Wood, etc) who keep saying that bitcoin will reach a million dollars per coin within the next 5 to 10 years are either
delusional or don't seem to understand how basic economics works. I'm not saying that bitcoin is worthless but I doubt it will ever reach anywhere near to that figure.

Why? Because I find it hard to believe that without a strong source of demand that doesn't rely purely on speculation, that bitcoin could ever go that high.
I use the term "organic demand" to mean non-speculative demand for a product or service.

At that price the marketcap of bitcoin would be greater than all of the magnificent 7 companies combined (Google, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Facebook. Nvidia).
The idea that something like bitcoin that has no source of organic demand whatsoever, can be comparable to seven of the biggest companies on the planet which all have
trillions of dollars of real organic demand is rather absurd to me.
  
Organic demand means you have  products and services that are needed by billions of people. Personal computers, cellphones, EVs, social media, computer chips,
general consumer goods, etc. These are things that people literally cannot survive or live without in the modern world, and that the Mag 7 are so great at producing.

I cannot say the same thing about bitcoin, which is purely speculative. When you order a shirt or pair of pants from Amazon you are doing it not to speculate on the price or to resell
it in the future. You do it because you need clothes to wear. Billions of people are buying stuff from Amazon everyday, which creates a tremendous price floor and stable price for the stock.
Sure you have investors speculating on Amazon's stock price but that is a relatively small part of the total demand (10 to 20%).

But with bitcoin 100% of the demand is pure speculation and price is dependent purely on investor sentiment. There is no price floor. It is essentially zero or close to zero.
The sentiment can suddenly drop off a cliff at anytime and the house of cards collapses. I compare it to a casino because gambling is based purely on speculation. There
is no real need to do it you are simply gambling with your money. Like bitcoin and crypto, gambling in a casino is the only other thing that I can think of that relies purely on
speculative demand. Polymarket is another one that works in the same way as a casino. It's just pure speculation.

Because literally everyone who owns bitcoin are speculators who will sell it at some point (either for profit or to limit losses), and they will all sell long before it ever gets
close to a million per coin or even a fraction of that. It is fine if you want to speculate on the price of bitcoin (which is what I have certainly done before) but to expect it to reach one million
per coin within 5 to 10 years or even a hundred years is rather delusional IMO.

The other thing at least for me is that the reason for buying a shirt from Amazon or an iPhone from Apple, is very simple for anyone to understand. Everyone on earth knows the reason for buying a shirt or a cellphone. But OTOH not many understand the reason for buying bitcoin. How in the world can bitcoin ever come close to the value of the Mag 7 when most people either think of bitcoin as a scam and/or have no idea of what it even is? And just talking to everyday people about bitcoin I can tell you that is still very true. If I'm lucky I might encounter one out of ten people in my daily life who doesn't hold such a negative perception of bitcoin.

[Nathrixxx]

Why? Because I find it hard to believe that without a strong source of demand that doesn't rely purely on speculation, bitcoin could ever go that high.

You don't have to stress yourself too much on this, all you may do now is to invest and hold, and try to see what could happen in a few years to come, another conviction you needed is to be able to check on the history of Bitcoin right from the start to this time, this will help discover how the price and market value has been increasing over time consistently.

[sunsilk]

I think comparing Bitcoin to simply buying stuff in amazon, tshirts or anything we use is totally different.

And the same thing has been said before when Bitcoin was still cheap like a couple of dollars, to a thousand and before reaching a hundred thousand.

While you've got a lot of points that it's a real speculative asset and that's one of its character. The real demand is there.

People don't buy Bitcoin because they're going to use it for their daily lives, but they're also doing just as how the usual investor buys gold for their future. I guess that's how we say that we're betting in our future.

Whether it reaches a million or two or not, it's the same as other assets and stocks that we will never know what the future holds with it.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

And if you believe so, how will it do that?

Above all, because of the denominator. Bitcoin is priced in dollars, but no matter which fiat currency you take as a reference, they are all devaluing. The price will reach one million, but the question is what the purchasing power of that million will be then.

But it seems to me all the many influencers (Michael Saylor, Cathie Wood, etc) who keep saying that bitcoin will reach a million dollars per coin within the next 5 to 10 years are either
delusional or don't seem to understand how basic economics works. I'm not saying that bitcoin is worthless but I doubt it will ever reach anywhere near to that figure.

In five years, no way; in ten, not so impossible, but considering the last couple of cycles, it's also difficult.

Why? Because I find it hard to believe that without a strong source of demand that doesn't rely purely on speculation, that bitcoin could ever go that high.
I use the term "organic demand" to mean non-speculative demand for a product or service.

At that price the marketcap of bitcoin would be greater than all of the magnificent 7 companies combined (Google, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Facebook. Nvidia).
The idea that something like bitcoin that has no source of organic demand whatsoever, can be comparable to seven of the biggest companies on the planet which all have
trillions of dollars of real organic demand is rather absurd to me.
  
Organic demand means you have  products and services that are needed by billions of people. Personal computers, cellphones, EVs, social media, computer chips,
general consumer goods, etc. These are things that people literally cannot survive or live without in the modern world, and that the Mag 7 are so great at producing.

I cannot say the same thing about bitcoin, which is purely speculative.

<...>

But with bitcoin 100% of the demand is pure speculation and price is dependent purely on investor sentiment.

You're wrong about that. Bitcoin fills a gap in the market left by fiat currencies. It's the best invention for storing and transferring wealth without relying on a centralised entity. Gold is similar, but it's more difficult to verify and very difficult to transport and transfer anonymously, especially when we're talking about medium to large amounts.

There is no price floor. It is essentially zero or close to zero.

So, what are you doing in this forum?

[Strongkored]

Before the 1 million dollar figure appeared, there was a figure of $400k and even that figure had not been reached.
So anyone is free to predict the price of Bitcoin as it is normal, and if this is done by people who are quite well known in the crypto world, the purpose is to influence so that more people turn to Bitcoin to buy, and the more demand there is, the higher the price will be.

[AVE5]

And if you believe so, how will it do that?

But it seems to me all the many influencers (Michael Saylor, Cathie Wood, etc) who keep saying that bitcoin will reach a million dollars per coin within the next 5 to 10 years are either
delusional or don't seem to understand how basic economics works. I'm not saying that bitcoin is worthless but I doubt it will ever reach anywhere near to that figure.

You've all right to doubt their speculation and speculate yours. It doesn't change anything that the market has to offer in the future. Don't also forget that there're also those who argued and criticized that bitcoin won't ever see a $100,000 value rate but had become a reality and so on anticipation for long term price keep soaring as much adoption is increasing while inflation also becomes a disaster diverting investors attentions to invest in it.
You either don't need to be overwhelmed with the influencers speculations because they also get it wrong in predicting bitcoin price in the short term but as an enthusiast, you just have to trust the system that it'll always be profitable in the future because as long volatility remains high with increases in adoption, bitcoin price maximization might likely be indefinite.
However, I'm also one that speculates bitcoin would get to $1,000,000 in the future but at uncertain time. If you think it's impossible then you must stay to live for as many years as Methuselah maybe at the "EDGE" where bitcoin won't be volatile. Probably where bitcoin reaches the finite of potential investment value.

[YOSHIE]

And if you believe so, how will it do that?

In my understanding and my assessment, Bitcoin reaching a price of $1 million does not seem impossible, it could happen even in the long term considering that if Bitcoin is adopted globally, clear regulations, institutional investment and looking at current technological innovation if it runs in harmony, well if that is done I am sure that Bitcoin reaching $1 million will no longer be a debate.

[joniboini]

I guess you need to consider whether fiat will keep its value, too. While it's unlikely to see 1 million dollar suddenly become worthless, we have examples where the finances of a country turn bad quickly. If Bitcoin still retains its value in a situation like that, then we may see its price rise significantly.

At the end of the day though, I don't care much about others' predictions. If I still believe it's useful for me, I'll continue to use and hold it. Other options to secure wealth are also important, so there's no need to go all in without proper risk management at all.

[Agbamoni]

But it seems to me all the many influencers (Michael Saylor, Cathie Wood, etc) who keep saying that bitcoin will reach a million dollars per coin within the next 5 to 10 years are either
delusional or don't seem to understand how basic economics works. I'm not saying that bitcoin is worthless but I doubt it will ever reach anywhere near to that figure.

In the future, yes, it will reach a million dollars per coin, but in 5 to 10 years, it is not possible if we are to be honest and more realistic.
But headingnorth also knows that anything is very possible. Hope you know, Bitcoin can reach $200k to $300k this year?
The more people buy bitcoin to hold them for long term, it beomces more scarce which will affect the price to increase significantly.

[CryptSafe]

OP, at first, I will advise you to put up your reference if you have an excerpt in your OP. However, if you had followed Bitcoin from the very moment it was launched till now, you could tell that it has come a long way from the least cent to some thousands of dollars, which has given it the place it is currently. So far, I can boldly say that Bitcoin could exceed that price you have mentioned in the years to come because its value would keep increasing as the adoption keeps increasing with time, and that alone could mean more scarcity for bitcoin which would trigered increase in the price of Bitcoin.

[headingnorth]

Why? Because I find it hard to believe that without a strong source of demand that doesn't rely purely on speculation, bitcoin could ever go that high.

You don't have to stress yourself too much on this, all you may do now is to invest and hold, and try to see what could happen in a few years to come,

The volatility and lack of organic demand is exactly why I would not hold bitcoin as a long-term investment, at least not anymore.
Bitcoin is 100% dependent on investor sentiment, because anyone who holds it can and will sell it at anytime. Which also makes it highly volatile.

But such features DO make bitcoin ideal for short-term speculation and day trading for those who are into that kind of thing.
But such things are not good for long-term holding or long-term investing imo, unless you were an early adopter.

Why? Because I find it hard to believe that without a strong source of demand that doesn't rely purely on speculation, bitcoin could ever go that high.

another conviction you needed is to be able to check on the history of Bitcoin right from the start to this time,
this will help discover how the price and market value has been increasing over time consistently.

Because something goes up hundreds of per cent per year in its early years doesn't mean it will keep doing that forever.

If you invested in Tesla or Microsoft in their early years of existence you could have made similar huge returns as bitcoin did in its early years.
But you cannot expect a mature company like Tesla or MS to keep giving you exponential returns when they are now very mature companies that are
worth trillions of dollars. It is another ridiculous fallacy that keeps getting repeated ad nauseum by every idiot influencer on Youtube.

"Because bitcoin 20X'd or 100X'd in 2012 proves it will do it again in 2030!"  

[Zaguru12]

In the future, yes, it will reach a million dollars per coin, but in 5 to 10 years, it is not possible if we are to be honest and more realistic.
But headingnorth also knows that anything is very possible. Hope you know, Bitcoin can reach $200k to $300k this year?
The more people buy bitcoin to hold them for long term, it beomces more scarce which will affect the price to increase significantly.

First the question was about bitcoin reaching $10k, it got past it and then $50k arose it went past it and then many said it will never get to a six figure and have that already smashed. For seven figure now I wouldn’t outrightly say yes but historically I will say yes it’s actually going to get to that price, just that there is no threshold period for that but certainly not in less than 10 years to come because of the reduction in volatility.

As for your prediction of $200k above this year I don’t also agree with that because this year is predominantly a bearish year and there won’t be much time for such highs. But in the next cycle that’s after next halving yes I expect bitcoin to go higher to this levels.

[Minor Miner]

Im someone who doesn't believe Bitcoin can surpass gold in market capitalization, no matter how much more time it takes.  But I have no doubt am confident that Bitcoin will reach the $1 million. Given the potential and demand for bitcoin, this is not an impossible task for it.

But the problem is this will not happen anytime soon, within the next 5 to 10 years as many investors predict. It will probably take a very long time, perhaps several decades, for Bitcoin to reach the $1m. Bitcoin has matured and its market capitalization is no longer small, expecting it to grow exponentially as it did in the past is unrealistic.

[Rustam Meraj]

Although you say that Bitcoin does not have natural need of any business that sells simple product to people such as phones or chips but information shows change in which big companies and even countries are beginning to use Bitcoin as money setup in country to country payments and as stash to protect against the falling value of money.  In my point of view although regular market remains tricky casino, start of GENIUS Act has made market need by governments that need neutral item, which creates bottom price of about 54,700 and is helped by company buyers such as BlackRock. So one million dollars price in near future may seem silly but it is Bitcoin so anytime anything can happen.

[Catenaccio]

And if you believe so, how will it do that?

But it seems to me all the many influencers (Michael Saylor, Cathie Wood, etc) who keep saying that bitcoin will reach a million dollars per coin within the next 5 to 10 years are either
delusional or don't seem to understand how basic economics works. I'm not saying that bitcoin is worthless but I doubt it will ever reach anywhere near to that figure.

If you believe that Bitcoin will reach $1M dollars for one bitcoin, let's make your long term plan in your finance and profit withdrawal too.

Don't just think about the target price and ignore what you must do in the meantime. The $1M price can be reached but not too soon, so your plan for what to do during that waiting time is not simple.

See this interesting opinion years ago

With a world GDP of $48 trillion, the price of a single Bitcoin -- supposing it made up only 1% of the world's economy -- would be $22,857. I think Bitcoin could be one day be worth 1% of the world's economy. And my guess is that with the financial turmoil today, there are some enterprises willing to look into ASIC and FPGA investments for that eventual 1% as well.

The world GDP in 2025

Global nominal GDP is projected to reach approximately $117 trillion to $123.58 trillion in 2025

It's interesting that Bitcoin ATH in this cycle is about $126,000.

[headingnorth]

And if you believe so, how will it do that?

But it seems to me all the many influencers (Michael Saylor, Cathie Wood, etc) who keep saying that bitcoin will reach a million dollars per coin within the next 5 to 10 years are either
delusional or don't seem to understand how basic economics works. I'm not saying that bitcoin is worthless but I doubt it will ever reach anywhere near to that figure.

The $1M price can be reached but not too soon, so your plan for what to do during that waiting time is not simple.
Many of those who bought in at 60K or 70K may want to sell when it reaches 80K, or 100K, etc. Those who bought in
at 100K may want to sell at 120K to lock in profits...

And therein lies the problem with something like Bitcoin, as you have just acknowledged, and it is simply this: 100% OF BITCOIN BUYERS ARE FUTURE SELLERS.

But for the price to ever reach a million $ per coin you need to have the majority of buyers to NEVER sell their bitcoin at least not until then. But how realistic is that?
It is not likely to happen imo unless bitcoin comes up with some killer app or use case that give BILLIONS of people a compelling reason to want or need
to buy bitcoin beyond just speculating on the price going up. That is what you need to grow a very strong and stable price floor to support such a huge valuation ($1M per coin).

Why do I say it needs BILLIONS of people buying it, and not just millions? Because the Mag 7 literally have BILLIONS of customers (not speculators),
if not tens of billions buying and consuming their stuff everyday. And if bitcoin hopes to compete with that then of course it also needs to have BILLIONS
of buyers (most who aren't going to be future sellers).

[Big Dirams]

Im someone who doesn't believe Bitcoin can surpass gold in market capitalization, no matter how much more time it takes.  But I have no doubt am confident that Bitcoin will reach the $1 million. Given the potential and demand for bitcoin, this is not an impossible task for it.

But the problem is this will not happen anytime soon, within the next 5 to 10 years as many investors predict. It will probably take a very long time, perhaps several decades, for Bitcoin to reach the $1m. Bitcoin has matured and its market capitalization is no longer small, expecting it to grow exponentially as it did in the past is unrealistic.

I bet bitcoin movement and improvement you have seen in so many years has made you believe in bitcoin and seeing bitcoin as a valuable asset that can outgrow even gold because bitcoin grows rapidly over time. 
I do have that believe just as you that bitcoin will definitely reach a million dollars in the future but just about what you stated, seeing bitcoin reach such expectations right now or in the coming few years then that just unrealistic despite the facts that bitcoin grows and it is a volatile pair but still such expectations is very high for the short period of time.

 To be realistic, of course we know a lot of things are possible in the cryptocurrency world but there are some certain expectations that might be difficult and hard to achieve under some circumstances. Like about the price range expectation of $1m of course that is possible to occur but not right now or coming years. That a high patient one need to put in.

[JeffBrad12]

Agree with the people that said OP is thinking too much about this. My simple recipe for bitcoin's path to 1 million per bitcoin is scarcity from the lost bitcoin overtime, the never ending fiat money printing, and shift from cash society to cashless society.
All that factors could make 1 million a bitcoin real, don't need to overthink about anything else. Bitcoin has come this far because bitcoin has demand.

[Danica22]

To be fair, Bitcoin reaching the $1M is not as easy as many Bitcoin investors are dreaming. This is much more difficult than Bitcoin going from $1 to $10k or $100k. Because we need trillions of dollars to pour into the market, not just a few billion or a few hundred billion dollars. Achieving that requires large scale involvement from organizations, governments, central banks...Bitcoin will not be able to achieve that goal if it relies solely on speculators and get rich quick schemes like us.

However, that is not impossible, because as we can all see, bitcoin is gradually attracting the attention and interest of governments and corporations. If this trend continues, in the future they will recognize it as digital gold and invest in it. 1M per bitcoin is entirely possible

[asso79]

$1M Bitcoin requires a market cap of roughly $21 trillion. Global gold market cap is currently around $20 trillion. So the question is really: will Bitcoin ever reach gold parity on a market cap basis? Given that Bitcoin is harder than gold — fixed supply, divisible, portable, self-custodied — the case for it eventually matching and exceeding gold's store of value market cap is straightforward. The timeline is the only real debate. Nation-state accumulation accelerates this significantly. When governments compete to accumulate a fixed supply asset the price discovery process is unlike anything traditional markets have experienced.