NBA win rate 81% .. this guy is unbealivable.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

What stood out for my was this reply:



I think the guy claiming to have all those wins is just a post that's seeking attention, have seen people like this so often over the years. I often feel sorry for players that actually believe this stuff.

When something seems to good to be true, it mostly is. Unless there is more proof I think it's fair to assume that those numbers are missing a lot of truth.

[Beparanf]

Yep, PnL matter the most instead of winning rate since we can still in negative PnL even on high winning percentage if most of the odds he is taking is very low which doesn’t compensate to the amount he lose on his losing bets.

That’s the struggle on sports betting of some users that wants to maintain high winning chance rate.

They are winning 9 consecutive bet with 1.1 odds then losing 1 bet that burn immediately all the profit and print 10% of bet as lose

No, you don’t understand. If you follow that forum, which has been around for a long time, most bettors there won’t share picks with very low odds like 1.10. Most tipsters post ATS or totals, because that’s where performance can be measured properly. Just like in my thread, I rarely post moneyline plays. It’s mostly spread and totals, because I want to measure my skill realistically.

I’m replying to the post that I quoted(not to your specific example) and I messed up on the conversion of odds thinking -110 to 1.1 odds instead of 1.9. I don’t visit that forum but my opinion is general which the achievement should be on PnL. Winning percentage if the odds he is taking is fixed above 2.0 with many bet count already

Focusing on winning percentage in general is very deceiving while PnL will give a clear overview on how good he is on his bets. But still this PnL is subjective based on the base bet he is placing and so on.

[danherbias07]

I do believe in sports bettors who have high accuracy when it comes to predicting the results, especially if they have been a follower of the game for a long time. You are one good predictor, too, @stadus.

Anyway, it's not just because I am also a sports bettor, but because there was a time I tailed one person in the sports chat of Stake.com before. The winning rate of the person is very high, and I made some good profits thanks to him/her.
But suddenly the gambler didn't share any ticket anymore and I don't really know what happened to him/her. There are really good gamblers who worked hard analyzing the game. It's possible.

[Free Market Capitalist]

That guy is as unbelievable as small the sample size is.

I think the guy claiming to have all those wins is just a post that's seeking attention, have seen people like this so often over the years. I often feel sorry for players that actually believe this stuff.

When something seems to good to be true, it mostly is. Unless there is more proof I think it's fair to assume that those numbers are missing a lot of truth.

The thing is, many people don't have the slightest idea about statistics—in fact, most don't—and they get carried away by headlines like that. This is often seen in attempts to become tipsters. Someone who has a short-term winning streak and seeks to charge for his advice when his results are primarily due to variance.

[Agbamoni]

How about you, do you believe in his stats or do you still think it’s impossible to win in sports?

Of course, I believe in these stats. 81% win rate is very possible in sports gambling. However, I can't say that for casino game players.
In football, I have reached 60% win rate in a month, hoping to exceed that and do better. So yeah, I dont think it is impossible to win in sports, it is very possible but only in the long run can we boast about profit.

[Peanutswar]

Well if he manage to win that kind of ration good to him but we are doing gambling right here there are a lot of bettors right there is a high rollers now if the bet slips of this game are profitable and now a low stakes there is a chance that we will believe of course its easier to predict the sports betting even raise to scores, match winners, etc. but at the end of the day we are betting to earn money and at the same time get entertained, I can call this game as a sports enthusiast right now because he manage to have a high win rate.

[Lucius]

What stood out for my was this reply:



I think the guy claiming to have all those wins is just a post that's seeking attention, have seen people like this so often over the years. I often feel sorry for players that actually believe this stuff.

When something seems to good to be true, it mostly is. Unless there is more proof I think it's fair to assume that those numbers are missing a lot of truth.

I also took a closer look at what is written in the link from the OP and I also saw this post and some others - so not everything is as it seems at first glance. Anyone can have a lucky streak, but if you're playing odds of 1.05 or 1.10, it's not exactly something to brag about.

By the way, the character is convinced that he is the best in the history of betting

I told you from the day I opened this profile, I am THE greatest NBA capper on totals in the history of gambling.   Nbdy is better.   Have you seen anyone better?

[Pmalek]

I have never heard of this tipster, but it's very easy to find out if he is legit or not. If he posts his tips publicly before the matches start and you can see them, then just keep an eye on the outcome. That betting stat on over/under markets is really impressive because the odds for those matches are high and usually around 2x. I am sure there are many excellent sports bettors, but most probably keep a low profile, not wanting to be the center of attention.

[Cryptomultiplier]

It's not impossible to see such a 25–5–1' record. It is however not a yardstick that you would succeed if you try, even though you feel so motivated to by the results.
I have no doubt that there are persons who make a living from taking such gambling risk, but the truth of their reality is that they take it more like a maths problem than you do. Some even have mastered strategies like using the Kelly Criterion, financial management and using bots.

You have to discover yourself and the strategy that works for you instead of blindly following tipsters. That's my best advice, otherwise you can use funds you can afford to lose to copy and paste a tipsters tip, to your own detriment.

[Strongkored]

How about you, do you believe in his stats or do you still think it’s impossible to win in sports?

An 81% win rate is impressive. If he were a tipster, he'd certainly have a lot of customers, and his customers would be happy with his results.
I read the replies in that thread, and some believe it, but others don't. I'm the one who doesn't believe it, because I doubt he'll be honest about it, and with such a high win rate, his account might be restricted by the bookmaker.

[KTChampions]

I would like to know the return and not just the win rate. You could bet on extremely low odds plays and match that win rate while still managing to lose money. Always check the receipts.

This.
I should also add that if we're talking about low/extremely low odds, the number of games should be large. 30 games isn't enough to evaluate a bettor and their strategy. If the odds are below 1.1, it's quite possible to achieve a streak of 30-50 wins without a single loss; there's nothing special about that. However, a couple of losses could follow, which would wipe out all previous winnings.

[iv4n]

How about you, do you believe in his stats or do you still think it’s impossible to win in sports?

I saw 3 pages, some irrelevant comments, and just a few picks... so what's there to believe in here? Only his words? Or maybe I missed something?

I believe it's possible to have a high win rate and make a profit... but I am not sure that this guy done it. In any case, it's not something anyone can achieve. It takes some skills, a lot of patience, dedication, and probably a few other things... But I also think that players should be free to try it, and who knows...

[hyudien]

I would like to know the return and not just the win rate. You could bet on extremely low odds plays and match that win rate while still managing to lose money. Always check the receipts.

This.
I should also add that if we're talking about low/extremely low odds, the number of games should be large. 30 games isn't enough to evaluate a bettor and their strategy. If the odds are below 1.1, it's quite possible to achieve a streak of 30-50 wins without a single loss; there's nothing special about that. However, a couple of losses could follow, which would wipe out all previous winnings.

Well, that's the point. Even a bettor with average skills would be able to achieve such a high winning streak if they bet on such low odds, I believe this is true even without conducting a rigorous analysis. It's like continuously betting on the Goliath teams against the Daud teams, but when you suffer one or two losses, that's when it becomes evident that the streak of wins becomes meaningless. What's truly important isn't the win percentage but the ROI. A 70% win rate can be outperformed by a 55% win rate if the odds selection is precise.

And honestly, a 25–5–1 record still doesn't prove anything.

[rdbase]

I saw 3 pages, some irrelevant comments, and just a few picks... so what's there to believe in here? Only his words? Or maybe I missed something?

I believe it's possible to have a high win rate and make a profit... but I am not sure that this guy done it. In any case, it's not something anyone can achieve. It takes some skills, a lot of patience, dedication, and probably a few other things... But I also think that players should be free to try it, and who knows...

When I went to the page it does seem it is missing his picks as if they had deleted most of the posts made.
Of course when someone is to show they have a high success rate in their selections, there will always be those who are either jealous and deny their accuracy in their bets or just troll them until they lose then say they were right all along in doubting them in the first place.
Some of those posts were also saying their picks were not all in the NBA but some sporting events in the Olympics aswell.

[Questat]

And honestly, a 25–5–1 record still doesn't prove anything.

That’s too high for me. If someone can really sustain that number, I’d call him a god in sports betting.

If he was just picking low odds like 1.10, he wouldn’t get that kind of attention. What we really need is the full betting history he claims, so it can be verified.
I think we can check his past posts, but only if we have an account on that forum.

[stadus]

Focusing on winning percentage in general is very deceiving while PnL will give a clear overview on how good he is on his bets. But still this PnL is subjective based on the base bet he is placing and so on.

It’s not really deceiving since the poster isn’t asking anyone to follow or pay him. He just shared his picks, that’s it.
What can be questionable is posting a PnL record without screenshots of the actual bet slips.

Still, that format shared is common across most betting forums.
If you know any tipsters who provide verified PnL, I’d like to check them out. Feel free to share.