Economic implications of a possible US military action in Iran

[Abiky]

Have you ever wondered what will happen to the global economy if US President Donald Trump orders a strike on Iran? What impact will it have in the value of the US Dollar? Will such action strengthen the "greenback"? Or weaken it? And what about crypto? Do you think the market will crash? Or will prices "pump" shortly thereafter?

The US now controls the biggest oil reserve in the world (via Venezuela), so maybe the US has nothing to lose by engaging against Iran?

What do you think? Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.  🙂

[Charles-Tim]

Bitcoin price has fallen slightly already, but which we are all expecting as that is how bitcoin would be when the war started, but that will be the effect as bitcoin price will rise back. If bitcoin fall more, know that it is not caused by the war. Such war only has short term effect on bitcoin price that may not even last more than few hours.

Oil price will rise.

United States dollar will not fall. The currency did not fall even during world war two.

Edit:
Let us see what the stock will do on Monday and how bitcoin react market to it.

[Fortify]

It is a great unknown really and depends on the scale of the action. If it's similar to last year where they hit a few targets and back off, there could be few repercussions from Iran because it's already in a weak political place at the moment because of the way it's been handling internal repression. If it turns into a full scale invasion then Iran might try to cause damage in the gulf waters, which could cause shipping issues until it is over. There are a lot of US military targets - boats and airfields, in the region which might be targeted and if any of them receive substantial damage then it could escalate into a full war and likely an invasion by America. For a president who claimed a peace trophy (from Fifa?) a few months ago after being turned down by the Nobel peace prize, it sounds about right. If it grows into a bigger war it will have a knock on affect on the stock market, causing a small correction if it spills out of the region.

[Alpha Marine]

United States dollar will not fall. The currency did not fall even during world war two.

I don't believe the US currency will fall, but the situation now is differnt from WW2. While Europe was buring, the US was still intact. They provided supplies for the rest of Europe, mening their currency was the dominate during that time. This is a differnt scenario where they are in direct conflict with another country.
The reason the US dolla will not fall is because the country would not be attacked directly. The proof of this is that the US dolla fell against major currency after 9/11 attack. If Iran's attack where directly on US soil and not military bases, the currency would have fallen.
Also, if the US truly has control of Venezuelan oil now, that mean oil prices going up might favour them.

That being said, "it would not fall" doesn't mean it will not drop at all. The US dollar has already see a slight drop recently and it will still drop but it won't be a significant drop.

[Rruchi man]

Bitcoin price has fallen slightly already, but which we are all expecting as that is how bitcoin would be when the war started, but that will be the effect as bitcoin price will rise back.

Bitcoin has some consideration as a safe-haven asset; it is very expected that it will gain more attention if the war persists.

Gold looks bullish already; the US dollar will also get attention and become stronger, bitcoin will follow.

[UmerIdrees]

Bitcoin price has fallen slightly already, but which we are all expecting as that is how bitcoin would be when the war started, but that will be the effect as bitcoin price will rise back. If bitcoin fall more, know that it is not caused by the war. Such war only has short term effect on bitcoin price that may not even last more than few hours.

Oil price will rise.

United States dollar will not fall. The currency did not fall even during world war two.

Edit:
Let us see what the stock will do on Monday and how bitcoin react market to it.

I think we will see a big correction in Bitcoin and stocks on Monday. Unless the war situation is resolved by Monday, then markets may remain green but that doesn't seems to be happening. Since this war and conflict started when the markets were closed, we will see a sharp move downside in Bitcoin as soon as the Asian markets may open on. Monday. The prices may consolidate throughout the day and we may see any pressure in the btc price when the US session will start.

Btc may test 60K if the war situation doesn't defuse quickly. If Iran retaliate, then things may become even worse.

[Kiddo15]

Have you ever wondered what will happen to the global economy if US President Donald Trump orders a strike on Iran? What impact will it have in the value of the US Dollar? Will such action strengthen the "greenback"? Or weaken it? And what about crypto? Do you think the market will crash? Or will prices "pump" shortly thereafter?

The US now controls the biggest oil reserve in the world (via Venezuela), so maybe the US has nothing to lose by engaging against Iran?

What do you think? Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.  🙂

The President of America has ordered different airstrike of different countries of the World and yet everything including the US dollar and Crypto has been going on smoothly. Besides it's just a conflict between both of them, at least for now, we haven't seen an intercontinental engagement with others. Such action might even slide without even much affecting the international market.

[yhiaali3]

Trump has already ordered strikes against Iran, and American and Israeli warplanes began striking Iran this morning. Reports have just emerged of the death of Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution.

As expected, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices dipped slightly before rebounding. Meanwhile, CNBC reports indicate that markets are bracing for significant volatility following the US announcement of "major combat operations" in Iran, with expectations of losses in stocks and a rise in gold and the dollar.
OVX oil volatility index rose by 8.16%, from 59.80 to 64.68 and This increase reflects expectations of rising prices and fears of supply disruptions.

[X-ray]

There was no significant price impact after the strike, possibly because Iran was sanctioned by the western economy for so long the market don't really react with the current escalation.

Or it is possible that bitcoin has been highly undervalued there is nobody left to sell and speculate on the news. We got massive inflow of $381m too for bitcoin ETF.

[sleepfirefly]

And what about crypto? Do you think the market will crash? Or will prices "pump" shortly thereafter?

iranian currency will not be stable so people might go for crypto but i don’t see the us dollar weakening especially they are the aggressor not the one being aggrevated. the oil will go up and those who import oil expect that the rest will follow. gas and expenses will go up as well.

[rezakurnia66]

US military action in Iran giving significant impact for bitcoin after falling down without few hours only success break out exactly after Donald Trump announcing Ali Khamenei have been pass away. I don't know what the bigger impact later if Iran's military attacking back Israel and United State due that country have nuclear weapon what will happen to the world? wish has solution for both countries still conflict but difficult accept by Iran's military and absolutely we must be aware exactly for people living near US military bases in Qatar, UAE and Bahrain.
Previously Iran's military have been attack the US military base in Qatar and Bahrain absolutely after their leader Ali Khamenei pass away will make Iran's increasingly ambitious to launch attacks.

[Findingnemo]

Usually geopolitical tension will cause the fiat to lose it's value and increase the demand of the assets so likely to be the case if this turns into a war with bitcoin too but as of now this isn't making any significant impace on anything probably people are so consufed with what they have to do now, so as a user just keep buying bitcoin is the best thing we can do.

[DiMarxist]

There will be great consequences especially in the oil sector even though the united states has a great oil reserve because, Iran is a major exporter of oil. This war is going to affect supply routes which will impact negatively on the rest of the world and oil price is likely going to be affected as a result of this way.for us as crypto enthusiasts we are more concerned about how crypto will perform at this moment because, we know that just like other assets crypto currency performance will be affected.

[khiholangkang]

If the implication of this war is that Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, which is an intimate route for global oil trade and if I'm not mistaken, has a 22% contribution to global oil supply through that route, but now it's not the peak, I think if tensions continue to increase, oil will be very expensive and we know that if world oil prices rise, all assets and commodities will rise, that's because oil is still the main fuel for transportation and global production tools, whether today or tomorrow, maybe we will be surprised by the explosion in oil prices.

[Creeper0]

The longer this war drags on, the more oil prices will continue to rise. The energy sector is already starting to become unstable due to the excessive use of fuel due to the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we are not yet able to feel its impact on the ground, but if it is not stopped now, we can see the skyrocketing price of fuel oil in the next few days.

However, we do not see any significant impact on Bitcoin, if the price was slightly lower after the declaration of war, we have seen the price increase since yesterday. Maybe Bitcoin does not want to witness this event, but it will not have any impact on the currency until the fall of America, I do not expect the fall of America yet.

[Abiky]

There was no significant price impact after the strike, possibly because Iran was sanctioned by the western economy for so long the market don't really react with the current escalation.

Or it is possible that bitcoin has been highly undervalued there is nobody left to sell and speculate on the news. We got massive inflow of $381m too for bitcoin ETF.

Not yet. But it's predicted that Iran will close the "Strait of Hormuz", effectively blocking oil shipments to the world. That will result in a severe blow to the global economy. Particularly, Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea. China is the second-largest economy in the world, so anything affecting the country will have severe repercussions over the rest of the world.

I guess Trump didn't calculate the effects of a full-scale war before deciding to move forward with it. Now it's too late. The military operation in Iran might be a long-lasting one. Even if Trump says it's only going to last from 4-5 weeks. Bitcoin soared a bit, but it's still far below its last-recorded ATH. For now, all of the attention is on Silver and Gold. Who knows how markets will change within the short-term?

[Abu-Naim]

Have you ever wondered what will happen to the global economy if US President Donald Trump orders a strike on Iran? What impact will it have in the value of the US Dollar? Will such action strengthen the "greenback"? Or weaken it? And what about crypto? Do you think the market will crash? Or will prices "pump" shortly thereafter?

The US now controls the biggest oil reserve in the world (via Venezuela), so maybe the US has nothing to lose by engaging against Iran?

What do you think? Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.  🙂

This would definitely have effect to the both crypto market and stock market because the case is not as expected and some residents in the affected countries are also crypto enthusiasts which means they can panic to sell off their bags especially because the market isn’t in good shape for a while now.
For Bitcoin, I think it has started affecting the market even though it has bounce back a bit, but gradually it might go down a bit again while other altcoins will follow suit as long as the attack didn’t stop because it is a global market and everyone have concern about that.

[AmoreJaz]

There was no significant price impact after the strike, possibly because Iran was sanctioned by the western economy for so long the market don't really react with the current escalation.

Or it is possible that bitcoin has been highly undervalued there is nobody left to sell and speculate on the news. We got massive inflow of $381m too for bitcoin ETF.

Not yet. But it's predicted that Iran will close the "Strait of Hormuz", effectively blocking oil shipments to the world. That will result in a severe blow to the global economy. Particularly, Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea. China is the second-largest economy in the world, so anything affecting the country will have severe repercussions over the rest of the world.

I guess Trump didn't calculate the effects of a full-scale war before deciding to move forward with it. Now it's too late. The military operation in Iran might be a long-lasting one. Even if Trump says it's only going to last from 4-5 weeks. Bitcoin soared a bit, but it's still far below its last-recorded ATH. For now, all of the attention is on Silver and Gold. Who knows how markets will change within the short-term?

Actually, as early this week, a lot of Asian countries have already announced an increase of their gasoline/diesel prices. So yes, there's impact on as early as now in the economy of a lot of countries which are heavily relying oil in the Middle Eastern countries. If this will not stop, and we know, it won't stop anytime soon, a lot of people will suffer from these increasing commodity prices. Because it will be a domino effect with the goods and other basic necessities. When oil prices will increase, and so the other commodities.

[aylabadia05]

But it's predicted that Iran will close the "Strait of Hormuz", effectively blocking oil shipments to the world. That will result in a severe blow to the global economy. Particularly, Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea. China is the second-largest economy in the world, so anything affecting the country will have severe repercussions over the rest of the world.

Trump has calculated the numbers and so on if this continues, but I suspect that Trump has made a mistake in his calculations regarding war with Iran because war with Iran is different from war with Iraq and Syria.
What makes the effect different is the Strait of Hormuz. If the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, the impact on the world economy will be felt, albeit not directly, because of its central location.
Honestly, I condemn those who play a role in war, even if it is under the slogan of security and other reasons, but they ignore the citizens who have to lose everything. Young people have to lose their lives as soldiers and ordinary people have to lose everything while they sit safely at their desks.

[r_victory]

Oil went up, gold went up, and I saw that someone mentioned Bitcoin went down, but from what I saw, it also went up; now it's worth a little over $73,000. Even a more conservative type of investment we have here, government bonds, also went up. It seems that in the short term it was beneficial, but perhaps it won't last long; it may just be an initial fear reaction from investors.