Possible insider trading on Polymarket

[Oshosondy]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

[Free Market Capitalist]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

Yes, either I saw it commented on or I commented on it myself in another thread, I don't remember exactly now, but shortly after the Venezuela operation it was widely discussed. At the moment, no one seems to have been charged or arrested, although these things sometimes take time. If it was insider trading, the people who created the accounts will be front men, and if the insider is smart, they will have covered their tracks so that it is not easy to find a connection between the insider and the front men.

[Wiwo]

This topic is being discussed somewhere in another thread,

I don't know what the law is about insider prediction, Still, if it is in the stock market this crime is liable for a jail sentence, I haven't seen or read a concluded case of insider bet just as the predictions market is somewhat new and alot of laws may not have been made around it, between that the truth is that such action is cheating not only the platform but also other player's who may have lost genuinely from their actions.

[Slow death]

Honestly, I don't see anything to indicate manipulation. Since Monday, February 24th, channels and newspapers in my country, as well as other Portuguese-language newspapers, political analysts, and military generals have been warning that the US could attack Iran this Saturday, February 28th, and I believe some people took it very seriously and tried their luck, and they were right. I highly doubt that confidential information like that would have leaked to someone to gamble on some website.

[Cryptomultiplier]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

Is it not suspicious that just a week after the release of the Epstein files, Iran had to start bombing Tehran and overnight the media has diverted their attention from the Epstein files and top resignation from high offices, just to cover this new bombing and possible war move by U.S?
This obviously smells like insider trading, but who knows, because as we know Trump is just doing so much to start a ww3 and the U.S thinking that they rule the world, is going to somehow start the biggest underestimated battle of all time.

[alani123]

There's tons of suspicious activity in polymarket and in fact if you have insider knowledge over anything now's the best time to take advantage of it because it's obvious even US government and Trump loyalists are taking advantage of this knowing there will never be any investigations.

Trump has a few more years in office and it's likely the next administration will also be republican which would buy these insiders even more time.

The other thing is that polymarket is probably also complicit because they've closed some markets based on fake results such as Ukraine war gains based on fake mapping.

[dimonstration]

Well US already showing aggression towards Iran after their first Nuclear attack last year. The agreement cannot be done for denuclearization while US successfully torn down Venezuela which probably their trial for their quick operation method.

However, there’s timing of creating the market for this event seems suspicious but still we all know that there’s already ongoing tension between due to Nuclear concerns.

[EluguHcman]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

If I had this event provided to bet in the poly market I would had also afford to take the risk and place the bet that Trump would definitely attack Iran before the month February runs out.
That is deemed as Iran refuses to make the deal of no nuclear power acquisition agreement as Trump earlier proposed because I have come so far to understand Trump to be a man of his words.
It is also in the news that Trump allegedly threatened with his speech that time is running in his presentation.

So the time could actually be suspected to elapse at the edge of the February.
No need dragging traders into the scene to be insider that masterminds the attack.

[Fiatless]

Is this not suspicious?

The fact that these six accounts registered in February should raise suspicion. This was the same thing that happened when the US attacked Venezuela and capturing of President Nicolás Maduro. An account cashed out $400k. The nature of this bet is increasing the chances that there is an insider who is leaking classified information.

This might keep happening till the end of Trumps tenure because I don't think they will investigate it now. Maybe the next government will start an enquiry and laws will be enacted to curb insider trading. 

[mindrust]

I don't think this is anything new. We have seen similar stuff before and it is only natural. Some people will always convert their insider knowledge to cash. Since politics is not sports and it is not regulated like sports, I don't see an issue. If you don't want to get robbed, you can always avoid making bets on politics. If everybody ignores political bets, then the insiders won't be able to take advantage of you. If you are betting on politics, you are agreeing to play by their rules.

[YOSHIE]

Is this not suspicious?

That's not how you view betting on the Polymarket website, indeed Polymarket is known to often make strange bets, this doesn't mean that Polymarket is breaking the law by trading people there.
Iran and the US have been arguing for a long time, many countries have wanted to reconcile, but to no avail, several planned attacks were stopped, but for the last time, it couldn't be stopped any longer, an attack occurred.

We can see that Polymarket really likes to place bets that are beyond common sense in general, but that's the website, it's designed that way, they like to bet on things that actually happen in parts of the world, that doesn't mean they act outside the applicable law.

[KTChampions]

Honestly, I don't see anything to indicate manipulation. Since Monday, February 24th, channels and newspapers in my country, as well as other Portuguese-language newspapers, political analysts, and military generals have been warning that the US could attack Iran this Saturday, February 28th, and I believe some people took it very seriously and tried their luck, and they were right. I highly doubt that confidential information like that would have leaked to someone to gamble on some website.

Usually all the pros and cons are reflected in the price, so if, as you say, the probability was high, then the cost should have been significantly higher than 10 cents. I fully admit the possibility that this could have been insider trading, but I don’t see a problem (except for the problems that exist in places where information leaks, but that’s not my problem). The point of prediction platforms is that whoever gets the information first is right. If I had the information, I would have used it too.

[ZeroVinsonN]

Is this not suspicious?

That's not how you view betting on the Polymarket website, indeed Polymarket is known to often make strange bets, this doesn't mean that Polymarket is breaking the law by trading people there.
Iran and the US have been arguing for a long time, many countries have wanted to reconcile, but to no avail, several planned attacks were stopped, but for the last time, it couldn't be stopped any longer, an attack occurred.

We can see that Polymarket really likes to place bets that are beyond common sense in general, but that's the website, it's designed that way, they like to bet on things that actually happen in parts of the world, that doesn't mean they act outside the applicable law.

I don't think OP was asking about the possibility of people placing bets on real world events but more on the possibility of newly created accounts predicting the attack on Iran with some predictions happening within just hours before the first attack landed on Iranian soil, such an event begs the question as to whether these people were already aware of what was going to happen before it even happened and this isn't just like a suspicion, it's more like did these accounts know that the attack was going to happen (not suspected).

[mak013]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

To be honest, we need much more information. For example about shares, were purchased a week before.
Lots of people knew that United Stares will attack Iran, lots of people remember previous attack. Lots of people knows that United States afraid of stocks and bond damp.  So the Satarday is the ideal day for attack.
I`m sure that there are some inside bets on Polymarket, but i don`t sure that it is the situation where we find it.

[Hispo]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

Yes, of course it is suspicious and since we are talking about a platform like Polymarket, on which one does not need to submit KYC information of any kind.

I think irnos pretty obvious what is actually going on: there is some military personnel who learnt about the existence of Polymarket and they are using their privileged information in order to get as much money as possible from bettors in disadvantage.

If this continues on in the future, it will be just matter of time before regulators get involved and out an end to this

[rdluffy]

Polymarket and Kalshi became quite famous lately
Polymarket does not require KYC, so this type of thing will invariably happen; there could always be something suspicious with insider information
It will be quite difficult to prevent these users

Imagine that sporting, political, cultural, and other events will always be subject to betting, and with the prediction market so well known, it will be vulnerable to influencing decisions and attitudes that may be linked to betting
This Iran bet will generate some controversy, just as it did with Venezuela and Maduro

[ryzaadit]

Polymarket and Kalshi became quite famous lately
Polymarket does not require KYC, so this type of thing will invariably happen; there could always be something suspicious with insider information
It will be quite difficult to prevent these users

Imagine that sporting, political, cultural, and other events will always be subject to betting, and with the prediction market so well known, it will be vulnerable to influencing decisions and attitudes that may be linked to betting
This Iran bet will generate some controversy, just as it did with Venezuela and Maduro

Yeah, but in a regulated country like the US. You still needed to request for KYC.

So, If the insider are coming from US. Polymarket can somehow hold those bet, and ask them to KYC. Unless, they using a different country stuff to avoid any KYC requested. All US related is always being regulated.

They're complicated, that's why KYC always being request for US player. Same things like CASINO, while most casino needed to created US site to bypas all regulation and law in the us by claiming is not gambling/casino. But just like social-games.

[Davidvictorson]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

It may be a coincidence but note that some people live for this.

They know that war is big business and it turns them on during such period as they know that's when they make the most money. As for the prediction market they are in business and it is boom. There will be many of such related predictions and more people will want to "cash out" from it.

I doubt it was insider trading though.

[acroman08]

Is this not suspicious?

Seeing the kind of people who run the current US government, I wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be true. Also, it was already known to a lot of people that Polymarket would be vulnerable to insider trading, this kind of thing is inevitable to happen. That being said, this could be just a coincidence, I mean, there were a lot of indications that the US and Israel will soon escalate the issue with Iran.

[Agbamoni]

Insider trading will someday ruin the business of prediction markets.
The 6 insiders' accounts that placed bets on Polymarket must be investigated. Buying shares a few hours before the explosions is enough reason for Polymarket to take actions if not, they will keep on paying insiders.