Possible insider trading on Polymarket

[hyudien]

Is this not suspicious?

The fact that these six accounts registered in February should raise suspicion. This was the same thing that happened when the US attacked Venezuela and capturing of President Nicolás Maduro. An account cashed out $400k. The nature of this bet is increasing the chances that there is an insider who is leaking classified information.

This might keep happening till the end of Trumps tenure because I don't think they will investigate it now. Maybe the next government will start an enquiry and laws will be enacted to curb insider trading. 

That's where the oddity lies. The fact that the six accounts were registered in February indicates that insider activity is indeed real. What crossed my mind was, were the accounts connected? If there were such indications, it would certainly be a violation and could be subject to sanctions. Polymarket should have conducted an investigation, as this was detrimental to other customers and should not have to wait for the new government, in my opinion.

[Akbarkoe]

Honestly, I don't see anything to indicate manipulation. Since Monday, February 24th, channels and newspapers in my country, as well as other Portuguese-language newspapers, political analysts, and military generals have been warning that the US could attack Iran this Saturday, February 28th, and I believe some people took it very seriously and tried their luck, and they were right. I highly doubt that confidential information like that would have leaked to someone to gamble on some website.

It's not always like that, manipulation can exist. We just don't know who might receive confidential information and use it for their own gain, using someone else's hand. This is my serious concern about Polymarket. There are certainly indications and suspicions related to prediction betting. And of course, political decisions don't happen in a few minutes, there must be planning behind them that has been studied over a long period of time. Are we aware of that? If we look at the kidnapping of the Venezuelan president, it should be starting to open our eyes.

[AmoreJaz]

Honestly, I don't see anything to indicate manipulation. Since Monday, February 24th, channels and newspapers in my country, as well as other Portuguese-language newspapers, political analysts, and military generals have been warning that the US could attack Iran this Saturday, February 28th, and I believe some people took it very seriously and tried their luck, and they were right. I highly doubt that confidential information like that would have leaked to someone to gamble on some website.

It's not always like that, manipulation can exist. We just don't know who might receive confidential information and use it for their own gain, using someone else's hand. This is my serious concern about Polymarket. There are certainly indications and suspicions related to prediction betting. And of course, political decisions don't happen in a few minutes, there must be planning behind them that has been studied over a long period of time. Are we aware of that? If we look at the kidnapping of the Venezuelan president, it should be starting to open our eyes.

There may be some insider tips why some are taking advantage of that information. We can't totally eradicate such situation. Because if you have that kind of info, and you know it is quite solid. More than likely, you will use it to get profit. Because who would not want some extra money, right?
And now, that I've seen some of the betting lines in Polymarket, I would say, this site already goes up its level when it comes to the amount wagered as some of the betting lines are already reaching up to hundred millions of dollars especially with the current situation that we have - the US-Iran war. This is actually saddening because as the Middle East countries are in the devastated state, people are betting for profits. This is how our world is becoming to be...

[TedMosby]

Even if someone believes everything about this US–Iran war was planned in advance, it still doesn’t make sense to me to place big bets on such sensitive real life events. (Or maybe I just don’t think the same way as millionaires do). The real challenge now is how to prevent insider trading in prediction markets. Even if elected officials, political appointees, and others in power are not allowed to participate, real life events that involve humans still have a huge loophole for manipulation.

[FinneysTrueVision]

Whether Trump is taking military action against another country or making a major policy announcement about tariffs, it always happens on a Friday night. This could just be traders timing the market perfectly based on Trump’s predictable behavior.

Even if it’s insider trading, that insider information would have to come from the Trump administration and I don’t see Trump’s CFTC opening an investigation and charging people. Polymarket wants to maximize their profits and will continue to allow this if the government is going to look the other way.

[jcojci]

If you think that is insider trading in Polymarket and the bet is possibly happens, you can bet on them. You takes benefit with them if money is the reason but if not, you can leave that.

I don't thinking about suspicious or not because many possibilities can happens. We don't know the truth and only guess so you need to decide by yourself. If you wants to make money, you can use that but leaves if you don't want place a bet.

[summonerrk]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

I believe that it is quite possible to say that Polymarket is therefore accurate (according to the latest data, the predictions there are more accurate than those of analysts who make predictions professionally) that there are insiders and powerful analysts on it (risking their money), and following the "survivor's delusion" we should not consider it a crowd. The crowd is clearly not the ones who place bets on the polymarket. I am convinced that this is a valid theory. It turns out that this platform is also a kind of indicator.

[Alpha Marine]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

There is a high chance of it being insider trading, but there is a chance it could be a genuine prediction. Anybody who had the relevant public information should know if the US will strike Iran or not.
From the moment Trump started giving ultimatum and a certain number of days before he strikes, I knew the strike would eventually come. He would not move two aircraft carriers within range if he didnt have plans to striker. Then there were constant reports that negotiataions where not progressing positively. As long as the negotiations was not going the way the US wanted, strikes from Trump were imminent.

If me, with very few or limited information can predict that, a person who has more information and is more knowlegdable on the situationn would be able to make perfect predictions.
If I had to bet, I would definately bet on the same thing too.

[Kelward]

Is this not suspicious?

The fact that these six accounts registered in February should raise suspicion. This was the same thing that happened when the US attacked Venezuela and capturing of President Nicolás Maduro. An account cashed out $400k. The nature of this bet is increasing the chances that there is an insider who is leaking classified information.

This might keep happening till the end of Trumps tenure because I don't think they will investigate it now. Maybe the next government will start an enquiry and laws will be enacted to curb insider trading. 

The question is what will Polymarket do about these allegations, since they already paid the winners shows that they don't have any concrete proof against the account owners. So far predictions are concerned we cannot rule out manipulations at any point because it is possible to get insider information and use it to predict which is cheating. Polymarket must sense that they are cheats but I guess they are still paying these guys just to mantain trust that if an account makes a correct guess no matter how the public perceives it that they will pay. Hopefully they will find ways to counter these manipulations but I know that it won't be easy, it won't be easy to totally eliminate insider trading in predictions.

[joeperry]

My take on this is Yes. There might be really an insider however it's also known that Trump gave Iran a 10-day ultimatum deadline to reach a nuclear agreement and warns them that bad things would happen if they didn't and from that statement alone and I think that's one of the reason why some people place bet that it would attack Iran but the thing is these users are not just regular users who place bets they placed a huge amount of bets on it and if someone thinks that it's not suspicious at all, I don't know what will.

[crwth]

In terms of legality, I think it's hard to really prove that something happened just because prediction markets aren't classified as securities, so it's not like stocks. The law doesn't apply like that, IIRC.

I'm not sure if this is going to be a crime committed type of thing, but this is currently a grey area IMO.

No KYC doesn't mean it cannot be traced. There is still information on the blockchain that could be analyzed on who made the bets. Maybe the funding patterns can be analyzed.

[michellee]

No surprise if that happens in Polymarket. Insider will be there with or without we know although we could only suspicious with them. We only guess if they are insider or not but if you want to make money, you can go through them and hope you really make some cash.

Gamblers will not care with that and only focus to make money. If they fails with one bet, they will searching for the other chances.

[KTChampions]

In terms of legality, I think it's hard to really prove that something happened just because prediction markets aren't classified as securities, so it's not like stocks. The law doesn't apply like that, IIRC.

I'm not sure if this is going to be a crime committed type of thing, but this is currently a grey area IMO.

No KYC doesn't mean it cannot be traced. There is still information on the blockchain that could be analyzed on who made the bets. Maybe the funding patterns can be analyzed.

What interests me is this: everyone talks about violations by ordinary people (tax evasion, "illegal" financial activity, etc.), but why isn't there any mention of violations by governments? What I've highlighted in bold clearly violates privacy laws (which vary from country to country) and laws against arbitrary prosecution, etc. The very concept of law has recently been transformed into the idea that the average person is always guilty and must justify themselves, while bastard bureaucratic governments can violate whatever they want without consequences.

[SmartGold01]

My question is; are they an insiders?
If no, how then do they know about the launch and plans on the ground?
And lastly, it was launched. This should be suspicious in my opinion as not everyone who would be able to know this, and yet they already bet on this and it was actually launched.

[iv4n]

Is this not suspicious?

It's suspicious... $1 million profit, bets were placed in the last moments. Like the story about the Venezuela/Maduro case, someone won almost half a million. Before that, there was something with Israel... And somehow I am not surprised. With the rise of prediction markets, I am sure we will see more and more stories about possible insider trading on these platforms... and we will never be sure what really happened, at least in most cases, we will see just rumors and speculations.

By the way, that can be a good strategy or idea for a bot... tracking "hot" markets and waiting for someone to make a big move, it looks like a signal. It would be a funny/crazy story if it starts working  Imagine the FBI knocking on your door... try to explain what you have been doing.

[stadus]

Very suspicious, but honestly I’m not that surprised. In this kind of market there will always be people who try to take advantage of situations like this.

What we have right now is just suspicion though. Proving it is another thing, and I doubt there’s any solid evidence of insider information. Besides, I don’t think the platform rules even allow them to deny payment based on that, so in the end it’s probably just speculation.

[Vaculin]

By the way, that can be a good strategy or idea for a bot... tracking "hot" markets and waiting for someone to make a big move, it looks like a signal. It would be a funny/crazy story if it starts working  Imagine the FBI knocking on your door... try to explain what you have been doing.

They shouldn’t offer that market in the first place if they’re going to question players just because they win. That doesn’t really sound fair.
There might be speculation that someone had insider information, but speculation alone isn’t enough.

Things like that can happen in sports betting too. It’s not really that different. Everyone is trying to find an edge and a way to win. Some people might even try to cheat, but unless it’s proven that they actually violated the rules, you can’t just assume it automatically.

[leea-1334]

Anyone who does NOT think there is no insider trading on any kind of market from US politicians and businessmen are fooling themselves,,, that is why we are always at a disadvantage when betting on such events on politics, so enter and know where you stand before you place your bets or buy your shares.

Why should Poly be different from DOW or NASDAQ right?

I mean look at shit like this right? https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-said-during-the-nyc-apple-event

[danherbias07]

I think it will just depend on whether the bettor was a government official. They can file a case for taking advantage of it, and if the government strictly prohibits it, then they must answer to it.

I sincerely do not understand why people will bet on such things. Like the US is going to war against Iran. It's like the prediction market is pushing it to happen, especially if there are many bettors who would place their bets on it. I think it's Polymarket that must investigate this first. Still, they opened a line like that, so it means they are also expecting some gamblers to bet on it. The real question is the timing and the odds given. If they truly took advantage of it while the multiplier was high, then I think it's a bit questionable.

[viljy]

It seems that not so long ago there was already a thread about fraud on these sites. Well, it's not even surprising. These platforms were created for the purpose of fraud (insider trading is a form of fraud; deliberate manipulation of an event is also a form of fraud). So we can just take it for granted. In general, it's even good that many economic and political actors and objects have dropped their disguises in recent years and shown their true essence. "Prediction markets" are just one of such economic entities.