Possible insider trading on Polymarket

[dwyane36]

My question is; are they an insiders?

Definitely. In principle, it could be government employees who have access to the relevant information, or people close to them. The problem is that it is not easy to find and identify who the insider is, especially if the insider is cautious and has created an anonymous account in advance.

[OgNasty]

Insider trading is going to become more and more rampant as these prediction markets grow in popularity. I especially think they are dangerous when people can become incentivized to kill others to stop them from completing an event that was bet on. Seems to me like it is only a matter of time.

[Moreno233]

This is the burden that prediction markets have to bear, insider information will always be used to exploit them. There are people within the ranks of government that will always be have access to privileged information which they can easily pass to their loved ones or business associates to make free money. The temptation is high and it will take someone with integrity and high morale values to resist the urge to use those classified information for financial gains.

[Fiatless]

This is the burden that prediction markets have to bear, insider information will always be used to exploit them. There are people within the ranks of government that will always be have access to privileged information which they can easily pass to their loved ones or business associates to make free money. The temptation is high and it will take someone with integrity and high morale values to resist the urge to use those classified information for financial gains.

Does it mean that it is easier to manipulate event predictions than sports games. The bad aprt of it is that these infomation can be accessed only by top politicians which will make them richer. While the common men will have to depend on luck to win. I think the governemnt should make strict laws whcih sactions shoould include fins and jail term for those who are found guilty of this insider predictions. 

[SmartGold01]

My question is; are they an insiders?

Definitely. In principle, it could be government employees who have access to the relevant information, or people close to them. The problem is that it is not easy to find and identify who the insider is, especially if the insider is cautious and has created an anonymous account in advance.

If more investigation is carried out those 6 persons could be exposed. Of course you are right that could possibly be an insider or those who had direct information to the government and knows when exactly everything gonna happened.
To me I believe it's cheating.

[shawonngp]

This is not the first time, you must remember. In January, when Venezuelan President Maduro was taken to the US, an insider trader on Polymarket won about half a million dollars by betting on it. Does that seem mysterious to you? These bettors may seem suspicious. However, I read such an article on January 31 that was published in our local news outlet, which stated that the US-Israel was preparing to attack Iran. However, many people doubt these insider traders. Since Polymarket is non-KYC, it is not possible to detect them.

[mcdouglasx]

It could be a simple coincidence, but in this life nothing is known for sure in global politics. However, they could be people who are keeping an eye on political information and know how to analyze the atmosphere. For example, what happened in Venezuela was obvious; the United States was going to do something, we just didn't know when, but the tension kept building. So this is very difficult to investigate, especially if those six users have no connection whatsoever.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

Well, it's definitely suspicious but then, what exactly can be done? If the matter is to be investigated and it's indeed discovered that this was insider trading, what can the authorities do about this?

Genuinely asking this question because I have no idea of what any laws says about insider trading especially when it concerns gambling, and on the other hand, we have to also know that who ever are this people involved in the insider trading must be powerful people too, because I believe it takes being powerful to an extent to get close to Trump and even be in his board meeting to get to know what he is planning to do, so I bet the authorities can do anything about this even if there's any law that bans insiders from trading predictions like this..

[|MINER|]

This is the only suspicious incident from the polymarket issue, but it's not like this. There have been many incidents before where there is a possibility that this could have happened, but it's basically insider trading going on, not betting.
When I first learned about polymarket, I found it a bit interesting, but later on, when I saw that there were bets on all sorts of absurd things, I started avoiding it.  I would also add that with this current incident, we will see more such suspicious activities in the future where proper investigation may reveal the truth.

[Mindyspace]

Well… I'm finding this very strange too.

Six accounts created out of thin air go to Polymarket, bet that the US would attack Iran just hours before the first news of the explosions, and then make about US$1 million? The timing is too good.

It could have just been someone monitoring the tension and taking a chance. But a new account, a winning bet, and entry at the last minute… it looks like very premature information.

It's not proof. But it seems suspicious to me…

[Franctoshi]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

We can't disregard the fact that there may be some sort of insider job, but taking a good look at about things before the US and Israel finally hit Iran, it was obvious that after the nuclear weapon negotiation meeting between the US and Iran failed, the US was definitely going to hit Iran after  moving all their expensive warships, aircraft carriers, and planes to the Middle East, plus the cost of keeping them for some weeks before the real escalation happened. They won't be spending such for nothing.

There was a high degree of certainty that the US was going to bomb Iran, and someone could risk  it.

[Julien_Olynpic]

Of course, these are insider forecasts and insider trading. Polymarket is currently in a phase of its development where it has already accumulated sufficient liquidity and has become attractive to bets from people in high-ranking positions or close to them. For them, it's easy money, an easy way to make money. Unfortunately, new technologies in the gambling industry are outpacing sound laws and regulations. Furthermore, insider trading is difficult to prove.

[Shinpako09]

That’s the loophole in prediction markets, and I think it will always be there. Even with our current technology and thorough investigations, this loophole will probably remain. It’s already attached to prediction markets. It’s also very hard to trace things back to the original source. It’s not like the source would be in direct contact with the person managing the account. They’re not foolish enough to do that.

[davis196]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

"Suspicious" isn't the right word to describe this anymore. Insider trading on Polymarket is obvious at this point. I read some news about Polymarket facing backlash, because there were open bet markets on the death of Ali Khamenei or something. Sooner or later, Polymarket will have to comply to stricter regulations and all the people's bets on certain events would be limited. Betting money on when a person will die isn't gambling anymore. I was expecting the USA to hit Iran by the end of February as well, but I didn't bet money on this to happen. It was obvious that the USA is preparing to launch an attack on Iran and Trump gave a 10 day ultimatum for negotiations. I'm sure that the prediction markets and some bookies would soon be restricted on allowing the people to place bets on such events.

[Smartprofit]

In my opinion, the Polimarket prediction platform is a completely unique phenomenon in the modern world! 🙋

I really enjoy reading adventure novels by the famous writer Akunin. In one of them, he describes a spy exchange, a place where intelligence agents from different countries (the novel is set during World War I) bought and sold various secrets. What's the point of stealing secrets if you can simply buy them on the exchange?

Polimarket can also be considered a "spy exchange" or "secrets exchange" to some extent. Insiders feel very comfortable there... Essentially, they leak information about industrial and political secrets and make money from it. 🤔

[nimogsm]

I think many have already realized that this is an exchange with legal insider information. While insider trading is prohibited and punishable by law on other exchanges, there won't be any problems here. The rich will get even richer, and there's absolutely nothing surprising about that; it's just that it's finally becoming more publicly discussed. While previously it was only a matter of speculation, now all the media are talking about it.

[Judith87403]

True, it doesn't appear suspicious to a lot of observers. Reports reveal that six newly created Polymarkets accounts bet that the U.S. may strike Iran before the end of February and placed big bets just hours before explosion were reporte in Tehran, becoming roughly $61,000 into almost $93,000 and about $1 million with combined profit.

As the timing was very precise and the accounts were newly created and aimed just on that event, analyst has flagged it as possible insider trading.

Nevertheless, suspicion doesn't prove wrongdoings automatically. It may be lucky speculation, yet the pattern solidly raises questions concerning whether one had any early or non-public information concerning the attack. This is the reason why regulators and makers of law are presently pressing for investigations and stricter rules on markets prediction.

[salad daging]

Insider trading is going to become more and more rampant as these prediction markets grow in popularity. I especially think they are dangerous when people can become incentivized to kill others to stop them from completing an event that was bet on. Seems to me like it is only a matter of time.

There are more and more suspicions about insiders in Polymarket because it has been exposed that some users who are only a few weeks managed to make millions of dollars in a short time, whereas we expect only insiders to be able to do it.

I can't imagine what you're saying about others being motivated to kill others, it could be more sadistic though it's only a matter of time but insiders will know what's coming later because they get the info early.

[leonair]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

This matter is very critical and suspicious how a person can know when America will attack Iran and kill the Iranian government. And if he was not sure somehow, he would not have placed such a big bet. I am really surprised by the news how this is possible. I think the person who placed such a bet must have known this information in advance, he is a person who is involved in these. Polymarket runs through a big circle, I think a lot of illegal things happen here. This platform of betting on predictions is not like other ordinary gambling platforms.

[Patikno]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

It seems like insiders have a promising profit opportunity, because the existence of polymarkets and the like. I think any prediction market can be exploited by insiders to reap extraordinary profits. After all, they have the "answer key" that they can exploit thanks to the prediction market. Even if the prediction market requires KYC on its platform, insiders still have a way (loophole) to profit from the information they possess.

I believe such bets are unfair, as they would be highly advantageous to certain parties (insiders) and detrimental to those without inside information. I believe it would be fair if the outcome were unknown to anyone, but the question is: "is that possible?" I don't think so, especially with bets on predictions of military attacks, as the OP mentioned. As far as I know, betting on prediction markets is a battle between fellow bettors, right? If that is true, then I think it makes it even more unfair. Cmiiw.