Betting on Bitcoin development decisions (BIP-360, "BIP"-110 ...)

[d5000]

I've recently discovered there is a prediction market for the so called BIP-110.

As some may know, this is a proposal for a softfork which aims to install consensus-based "filters" which wouldn't allow some of the techniques that were used in the past to store data like images on the Bitcoin blockchain. But it won't be able to filter out all NFTs and similar stuff, as it was demonstrated recently with an image of Luke-Jr embedded into the chain.

The prediction is however devastating for the supporters of that "BIP" (it's not even an official BIP, but the supporters are very loud and aggressive) 6%. The platform is predyx, one I didn't know until now.

But there seem to be some other markets too.

A much more "seriously interesting" topic than BIP-110 is BIP-360, which would prepare Bitcoin slowly for post-quantum cryptography. It is a very cautious first step, but still the activation probability for 2026 according to Polymarket is only 11% at the time of writing. It's however also possible that people consider 2026 too early and would opt for "yes" in 2027 or 2028.

I've added a poll. Do you think gambling with Bitcoin in this fashion is fun? Or it's too "nerdy" for you, or otherwise uninteresting?

In this thread you can also mention or discuss other similar prediction markets related to Bitcoin's development (not its price, for the price there are many markets).

[Findingnemo]

I am not nerdy enough to enjoy while predicting the developm bitcoin but I got curiosity though so I picked dunno. And this is the first time I am reading that people are also betting on the bitcoin's future like BIP whatever it is and I wonder how much people are there to know the potential size of this market. Anyway I predict that bitcoin should prepare to be quantum resistant before 2030 ao anything close to that will be my pick.

[iv4n]

I've added a poll. Do you think gambling with Bitcoin in this fashion is fun? Or it's too "nerdy" for you, or otherwise uninteresting?

It's fun, or at least it can be fun for people who like to read about Bitcoin development and have an opinion about it... Backing up that opinion with a bet is just another step. So it's not nerdy, it's just what you are interested in. Does betting on MMA make us savages? And what about us who get emotional watching grown adults chase a ball?

Did you place any bets on Bitcoin development decisions? And do you have any tips?

[d5000]

Did you place any bets on Bitcoin development decisions? And do you have any tips?

No, I've only discovered that very recently, so I have no experience with that.

However, the "BIP"-110 bet seems tempting. The chance that this get majority acceptance is practically zero. So the equilibrium odd (where you would win only the casino's fees if the bet resolves in the expected way) should be around 99-1. Nevertheless, it was at 94-6 yesterday, probably pushed by the Knots folks who want to make it appear that there is a chance. So you could scrape some free money ... Now it's at 95-5, a bit worse but still somewhat tempting ...

General tips I would follow if I wanted to bet on this:

- Read the developers' mailing list, to see what's currently discussed, and what's close to be implemented.
- Read delvingbitcoin.com. That's an alternative Bitcoin forum where some of the devs and technically interested people are writing.
- And of course the Development & Technical section here at Bitcointalk.
- The BIP list. You can see there who's in favour and against, what are the main criticisms, what's the state of the code etc.
- If you know how to read a platform like Git, it's also a good idea to read the pull requests.
- Social media (X, Reddit, for example) can give hints but there tend to be closed echo chamber bubbles, which is mostly relevant in controversial discussions.

[Karl_3000]

This is BIP-360 on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-bip-360-implemented-in-2026

I was unable to see BIP-110 on Polymarket.

Which prediction market can we see BIP-110?

[stompix]

I think people are nuts:
https://polymarket.com/event/will-knots-flip-bitcoin-core-by-december-31

This is all just Knots propaganda:
https://coin.dance/nodes/all
Bitcoincore nodes haven't changed at all, just people firing up knots out of the blue, I'm starting to wonder how their IPs look, 100 on the same vps?  

As for BIP-360 do they have an actual number on the impact of the size increase to block capacity yet?

[d5000]

I think people are nuts:
https://polymarket.com/event/will-knots-flip-bitcoin-core-by-december-31

Lol. That looks hilarious indeed.

But with that bet I would be more careful. It is indeed possible that if there's much money involved, somebody just spawns 20,000 nodes at December 31 and then they would have "flipped".

That bet would be more interesting if the rules said something like "the 3-month average of Knots nodes is superior to Core nodes".

However, still an interesting opportunity to benefit from this propaganda bubble. 53-47 against currently, when it should be something like 85-15 even considering some Knots supporters have deep pockets to spawn VPSes. It's a gamble

As for BIP-360 do they have an actual number on the impact of the size increase to block capacity yet?

BIP-360 does not include a quantum signature cryptosystem at this moment. It only includes the P2MR outputs, which would make Taproot as quantum-safe as P2WPKH (i.e. no public key exposed).

That's why I'd expect that odds slightly higher actually. But it's possible that those betting against it to be included in 2026 know how long BIPs normally take to be implemented in a Core release. I would actually also expect it, at its earliest, in late 2026 or early 2027, as it is still quite a substantial upgrade which requires to be tested a lot.