Kalshi caught changing rules last minute, making users lose money

[alani123]

See the above image and share your thoughts.
 
It is known that prediction market owners and operators have the upper hand in deciding how to close a market but this level of nonsense observed in situations like this draws extra attention.

A user bet that Iran's supreme leader would be out of office by April 1st and the platform changed the rules last minute to exclude death. That's a crazy take if I've ever heard one.

[Ruttoshi]

Out of office is out of office because the only way that can be achieved is through death since no one in Iran will betray the Supreme Leader of Iran in order to kick him out of office. The prediction means anything can happen to him that would make him not be in power anymore either alive or not. N

Prediction market can be manipulated and we have discussed about that in recent times. I feel for this guy because he was scammed by Kalshi, since it wasn't written in the beginning before the prediction that death case is excluded.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

It is known that prediction market owners and operators have the upper hand in deciding how to close a market but this level of nonsense observed in situations like this draws extra attention.

A user bet that Iran's supreme leader would be out of office by April 1st and the platform changed the rules last minute to exclude death. That's a crazy take if I've ever heard one.

Casinos, prediction markets and majority every centralized platforms on the internet that deal with users and money all have upper hands on their users and can make and change rules to favor them and mar their users at any given instance and its quite unfortunate.

In the issue above, it's clear that that user won the bet because in Iran, it is very difficult for a Supreme leader to leave office by voting out or retiring, the only and common means through which a Supreme leader can leave office in Iran is mostly through death and as such, the user won his bet but unfortunately, that platform decided to exercise their franchise to mer/stop the user from winning or to make it look like he didn't win..

If there was a body they really regulate the activities of this casinos and prediction market, issues like this is something they should ensure never happen to gamblers.

[Emjay24]

It's crazy for them to do this and it's a very manipulative thing to do. Whether he's dead, in prison or even unable to continue due to health concerns, he's still out of office, so it's a win for those who made the prediction. The guy did the right thing by not going to use them ever again, I would've done the same thing if it was me because the manipulation is very obvious and says a lot about their integrity.

OP, it would've been good if you dropped a link to the tweet so we check it out ourselves. If this is true, then Kalshi scammed their clients.

[Orpichukwu]

The possible reason why they have done this is they might have seen the level of bet placed for the leader to be out of office. Now seeing the platform, seeing they have more people who are to have won this, they have to make changes to the news, which is a ridiculous thing to do.

There should be a law protecting customers in such cases; if there is any need to amend rules, it should not reflect on an event which bets have already been placed on. How else do they expect the lead to leave office? Death was the only possible way, and assuming it did not happen, such a new law could not have been published.

[cryptoaddictchie]

A user bet that Iran's supreme leader would be out of office by April 1st and the platform changed the rules last minute to exclude death. That's a crazy take if I've ever heard one.

If this is about Kalshi changing the resolution criteria last minute, that’s honestly a bad look because prediction markets rely heavily on trust and clearly defined rules. Even if they had a technical justification, altering terms after bets are placed feels unfair and undermines confidence in the platform. In markets where real money is involved, consistency and transparency matter more than anything. But honestly how peculiar the topic on this bet? Are there no terms to specifically says he won? Cause from the looks it should be included whatever the case and death shouldnt be on the outlier for winning a bet since it wasnt mentioned at first.

[Charles-Tim]

If no rules before that does not exclude death as part of reasons the Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will not be considered to have left office, that means Kalshi obviously scammed its users that got the prediction right. The Iranian  supreme leader has been killed in the ongoing war between United States/Isreal and Iran, that definitely and literally also means that he is out of office. The prediction site should be sued by those that won the money.

[stadus]

A user bet that Iran's supreme leader would be out of office by April 1st and the platform changed the rules last minute to exclude death. That's a crazy take if I've ever heard one.

I believe Kalshi is a licensed company, so if they were found changing outcomes or violating rules, that would clearly be cheating their bettors and they should be held accountable. Since they operate under a license, it should be easier to investigate them. Before getting that license, they had to meet certain regulatory requirements, so there’s a paper trail auditors can review to verify whether the claims are true.

Good luck to them, but if they damage their reputation, it’ll be hard for them to compete with platforms like Polymarket.

[JeffBrad12]

As far as i know CFTC already prohibited to list the contract that linked up to the someone's death. So i think it's the reason Kalshi was reversing that bettor's bet caused by it's against the regulation of CFTC.

They're a licensed company. So they have to follow the regulation. This is also the reason i can't really blame them to do that, but at the same time it's laughable when they try to stand the moral while they run a prediction market 

[Agbamoni]

Prediction market can be manipulated and we have discussed about that in recent times. I feel for this guy because he was scammed by Kalshi, since it wasn't written in the beginning before the prediction that death case is excluded.

This time, the prediction market excluded death from the possible outcome. Which was literally one of the outcomes considered by OP that will make Khamenei be out of the office before April 1.

Any casino or prediction market tha changes rules during last minutes because large numbers placed a bet is to be trusted after that single act. The market is not reliable.

[crwth]

Definitely disappointed by this change in the rules. I agree that the members trying to use it will be at the mercy of the operators.

From here on out, I hope they tackle it granularly and have clear definitions of what it could be. In this case, the "Out of office" could mean different things, and they should be more specific:

• Vacancy of the position
• Office termination
• Unexpected death or removal

I do hope that there will be a channel for disputes like this. I think it will help them in situations like this.

[maydna]

That will be up to users still using that prediction market or moves from that. They already get inconvenience and it is the time to moves to other because no guarantee the prediction market will not do the same thing in the future.

Prediction market can changes their rules anytime but they should announce to users so users will not disappointed. If they can't do this, that will be only a matter of time they may lose more users.

Here is the link of his X page.

https://x.com/Itsjoeco/status/2027963025106370584

[memehunter]

Prediction market can be manipulated

Yeah these types of prediction markets are more prone to manipulations. Let's say someone put his money on the fact that X will go on war against Y before a particular date. Now, who is there to decide what constitutes as an official act of war? Besides that, different stakeholders can choose the date as per their own advantage/narrative. Media reports can not be trusted and worst, there will be no retrospective settlement in case something went wrong.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I made mention of this thing sometimes ago when we were debating on something which I can not remember again, I said that how about when a casinos or website changing their rules unannounced and then this made some people to lose their bet without even knowing that the casinos or site has hands in it their lose, the site will keep quiet if no body talks about it and they will pretend nothing has happened while they have a hand in it.  That's the reason why I sometimes take screenshots or screen record of something when I'm in doubt about that things, so that when things go south, I will have an evidence to present, if I were this guy, this is time to sure them.

[Beparanf]

This is a clear robbery considering that the only possible way to remove him out of the office is through war while death is always the possible outcome considering how US and Israel operates against high ranking official of Iran.

There should be any changes on the rules the moment the market already received purchased on specific contracts since it’s unfair to those first buyer that purchased it with the initial condition.

[leea-1334]

What did Polymarket do about this? I can see from my view these markets are still not yet settled (31 March deadline),,, I bet you they wanted to see what Kalshi would do first before pulling the same thing.

Obviously, if you put such a market you have to factor in death right?

[retreat]

One might think that Kalshi is cheating bettors by changing the rules at the last minute. However, according to the CFTC regulations - which Kalshi is regulated by - Kalshi has the right to change the rules because CFTC regulations and federal law generally prohibit the listing of contracts related to death in the February update. So, if this had happened in January, Kalshi might have been guilty of changing the rules without a clear regulatory basis, but now they have a clear regulatory basis and are using it to change the rules on the contract, which is to their advantage.

[Hispo]

Considering that the holder of the title of Supreme leader of Iran is a title which is held for life, irnos reasonable to assume death is going to be a valid outcome for whose who are buying contracts in future markets.

Platforms like that one which change the rules of their markets in the last second are never to be trusted. From the very beginning the rules of the market are set on the table and those rules need to endure until a resolution is reached.

At least we can be sure to stay away from that webpage, it does not make sense to give our time and money to services which do not respect their costumers/bettors.

[Odusko]

The rule I mean the final rule, is unclear about death as possible departure from office, since their State that the team designs the rules when results involve death, that spot in the rule is where the real abuse happens, predictions sites will always find means and ways to keep you out of rewards most especially when the prize is a bit big, the fact that the contract title is clear and the individual indeed out of office before the predicted date that put the player at winning.

[rdluffy]

I don't use Kalshi, but it's always good to look at the company's TOS, and when betting on any prediction market, always save the information, screenshots, etc. so you can appeal if something like this happens

It's not the first time this has happened and it won't be the last
Several predictions are controversial, with results that can be interpreted in different ways
There was a similar problem with Maduro and Venezuela, but as far as I remember, it was on Polymarket