Wartime performance of BTC

[RoseAPT]

Many have criticized Bitcoin as a store of value due to its relative infancy compared to traditional commodities like gold during war time.

The last 15 years has seen some major conflict, however, such as Ukraine and Gaza/Israel.

But this Iran conflict may potentially be the "biggest" one in terms of impact: geopolitical significance, economic impact as it relates to oil, religion, and many other reasons.

Do we all agree that this is a major "test" for Bitcoin during this wartime period? In other words, would the store of value narrative be solidified or weakened based on this moment?

Or does this war not really matter much specifically for Bitcoin...BTC is just one of the many asset classes that will see volatility

Another related question, is this Iran war "big enough" to even strengthen BTC's narrative? Or do we need a China/Taiwan level conflict to really see what BTC is made of?


*I am not advocating for war, or hoping more conflicts arise btw

[EL MOHA]

In the midst or presence of war the least thing that people can actually think of is whether bitcoin is a store of value. By drag bitcoin into every conversation.

But since you ask then I think bitcoin already gives its answer and that’s is by the strong upward movement that bitcoin has shown since this war started, bitcoin got to $70k today while stocks are dumping. I think you have got your immediate reaction from bitcoin.

Wars aren’t the same to use to predict the strength of bitcoin or other assets, because some wars are just regional without huge impacts on global economy but should this particular war turns out to be WWIII ( hopefully doesn’t) bitcoin will be the least of our worries

[BitMaxz]

Why are you afraid of the war? Look at other assets like gold; the war doesn't affect the whole market.
The war has already started; it should show some effect on the whole market, not only for Bitcoin.
If the issue is global, like a pandemic, that is what you should be afraid of because the whole economy is down, and crypto might drop more later if that happens.

[xbetz.io]

War doesn’t automatically strengthen the store-of-value narrative. In the short term, Bitcoin often behaves like a risk asset, liquidity matters more than ideology. The real test isn’t the first 48 hours of headlines. It’s how BTC performs if conflict leads to: capital controls, currency debasement and payment restrictions.  That’s where the censorship-resistant thesis becomes relevant. So the question isn’t “does war pump BTC?”. It’s “does instability increase the demand for neutral settlement layers over time?”

[Ambatman]

I thought our biggest concerns as humans are the lives that would be lost in this unnecessary Wars.
What happened in the past few days is how Bitcoin would perform during such international crisis
Fall first then recover higher than its previous high.
It's Bitcoin
Borderless
So not limited to a single country hence not confined to the impact of war in their economy
Mind you, War usually brings about inflation as the government would have to print more to finance the war.

[Renampun]

You cannot expect that war will not happen when global tensions are heating up and countries around the world are increasingly divided into blocs, sooner or later war will happen, and the US vs Iran conflict is just the beginning, there is a possibility of further escalation. but that doesn't mean it will be a bad thing for Bitcoin, just look at how Bitcoin fared during the Ukraine vs. Russia war, initially, it was affected, but it bounced back and grew stronger, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will experience the same thing under the current circumstances.

[silpersurfer]

The volatility is not yet significant and Bitcoin is relatively up today, so that shows that this war is not considered big because it doesn't have a big impact, or have we not yet received the impact? this has been on my mind lately.
Bitcoin's performance is still the same as before, still below $70k and above $60k, and there is no threat whatsoever to make Bitcoin like in the first war between Russia and Ukraine before.

Whatever it is, I don't hope that any war will happen and we can live in peace.

[DiMarxist]

The conflict is just starting so let keep our fingers cross and watch out at the way that Bitcoin will perform in the coming days. Because Bitcoin only reacted slightly when the news broke out of the bombing of Iran but, the fact is that this war will have an effect on the performance of Bitcoin just as it will have on other assets and commodities. But one this we are sure is that in war times like this especially in the affected countries people will see the need of Bitcoin having Bitcoin as it's safe and secure because, in war times like this there will be limited supply of cash flow because in affected cities banks will be close down and having Fiat currency will be a problem. This war will make more people to see reason of having Bitcoin.

[Alphakilo]

From my perspective and from learned thoughts from other Bitcoin enthusiast, Bitcoin is currently in a state where it is considered as part of the financial system of many countries, due to its launch of ETFs, institutional portfolios/large pocket holders and the high rate at which it is traded on the market.
Although Bitcoin is very much still affected by volatilities, during war times, it would hold more value if it can be easily liquidated and readily accessible, rather than having a new ATH or the price being steady at anytime, because commercial traditional banking may be unavailable.

[Donneski]

Op, you need to understand that war isn’t a Bitcoin-specific variable, it’s a global macro variable. If it’s regional, markets digest it and move on but when it’s systemic, everything reprices and that includes stocks, commodities and even crypto.

Bitcoin doesn’t exist in isolation. It’s still part of the broader liquidity cycle. If global risk appetite collapses, BTC will feel it too. So I’m not sure this current conflict alone can prove the store of value narrative. A true global financial stress event would be a much clearer benchmark than a regional war.

[aylabadia05]

Another related question, is this Iran war "big enough" to even strengthen BTC's narrative? Or do we need a China/Taiwan level conflict to really see what BTC is made of?

Before the American-Israeli war with Iran, we lived in a world where Russia was at war with Ukraine. What should we fear about the effects of war on Bitcoin prices? Bitcoin's performance will not change and will be as usual, rising and falling or vice versa as long as the law of supply and demand still exists.

It's natural for people to have doubts about their assets during a war, but don't overreact if it's not a physical asset and as long as we're not from a country that's at war. Assets like gold actually go up in the middle of a war like the one we're in right now.
We put our money in Bitcoin as a hedge.

[AVE5]

Whatever historical bitcoin price events you hears that occurs during the war and had been probable to be coincidence occurrences because neither war or no war, bitcoin has always proved to be volatile and so on it had also been following ir 4 years cycle events without haven't been disrupted by the wars going on every here and there.
There had also been terms when bitcoin price is predetermined to be influenced during war and there are also war times that it has no effect in bitcoin just as it's expected by so many analysts that the US and Iran war was going to negatively affected bitcoin price but here we're seeing s different market attribute.
That's just to say that volatility unpredictability can only be speculation when we say politics, wars and economy outcome could really manipulate price.

[coupable]

But since you ask then I think bitcoin already gives its answer and that’s is by the strong upward movement that bitcoin has shown since this war started, bitcoin got to $70k today while stocks are dumping. I think you have got your immediate reaction from bitcoin.

I wouldn't compare the rise of bitcoin price with the drop in the stock market because they are totally two different things in the actual scene of war. Stock market is mainly depends on big companies who are afraid from the war consequences. Today, not only btc price rised significantly after a period of continious decline. Also oil rised and other energy products as direct result of the war in the middle east especially after Iran closed the strait of Hormuz which pushed OPEC to resort to reserves.

[batang_bitcoin]

Do we all agree that this is a major "test" for Bitcoin during this wartime period?

I have thought of the same scenario before, the pandemic and the war of Ukraine and Russia. So, if it's about the biggest test for it. I think that we've got enough of it already.

Another related question, is this Iran war "big enough" to even strengthen BTC's narrative? Or do we need a China/Taiwan level conflict to really see what BTC is made of?

We don't know. The comparison of different conflicts have their different agendas and on how it will have its impact for BTC is unknown.

[yhiaali3]

For me Bitcoin has already answered the question of the war's impact on it, as evidenced by its rise from below $65,000 to around $70,000. May be not a huge increase but it is a significant rise in just a few days, reflecting people's confidence in Bitcoin as a safe haven and store of value.

But we can't generally judge Bitcoin's performance based on such a short period or a limited regional war, despite the Middle East's importance, particularly in the energy sector, and the war's impact on energy supplies. This conflict remains geographically limited and short-lived.

[tread93]

In the midst or presence of war the least thing that people can actually think of is whether bitcoin is a store of value. By drag bitcoin into every conversation.

But since you ask then I think bitcoin already gives its answer and that’s is by the strong upward movement that bitcoin has shown since this war started, bitcoin got to $70k today while stocks are dumping. I think you have got your immediate reaction from bitcoin.

Wars aren’t the same to use to predict the strength of bitcoin or other assets, because some wars are just regional without huge impacts on global economy but should this particular war turns out to be WWIII ( hopefully doesn’t) bitcoin will be the least of our worries

I agree, I mean you saw it first hand today BTC was up amist all the talk of the war and missiles going around everywhere. Bitcoin does seem to get dragged into every conversation but its hard not to want to talk about it and try to make some sense of some of the current events that can play a role in affecting its pricing volatility. One thing I am curious of is this: In Iran the current electricity costs are extremely low. With new regime the tight restrictions on mining bitcoin in Iran are basically no more and we should see a jump in the hash rate in Iran from civilians turning on their mining rigs and attempting to mine more bitcoin. I feel like as a direct result of this war and what is happening there may actually be some slight movement upwards in price potentially from an increase of new miners in Iran? Perhaps just speculation but I feel like I could be on to something here guys.... what do you think?

[CryptoYar]

Fact that the Nobitex site in Iran showed large 700 percent flow out of crypto became proof of Bitcoin as handy escape door by people being blocked by their banks and rules, leading to price jumping back to $70,000 by Monday. I think this is final struggle that Bitcoin has become control proof survival tool, although it is too shaky to be used as stable price guard by Wall Street. True test will be in next few weeks, as successful closing of Strait of Hormuz will push oil prices by 13 percent. Bitcoin will hopefully no longer be joined with stock market and will take lead of Gold and become guard against resulting rising prices worldwide.

[SeriouslyGiveaway]

Many have criticized Bitcoin as a store of value due to its relative infancy compared to traditional commodities like gold during war time.

The last 15 years has seen some major conflict, however, such as Ukraine and Gaza/Israel.

But this Iran conflict may potentially be the "biggest" one in terms of impact: geopolitical significance, economic impact as it relates to oil, religion, and many other reasons.

Biggest war recent years, since 2009, or not, I think you need to realize one big fact. Bitcoin did not react too negatively and panic with this war and it even did not fall to $60k like five weeks ago.

This market reaction against USA, Israel vs Iran war again shows that when the market, and people in the market are already familiar with a type of news, they will no longer be too sensitive and vulnerable with such news. Hence, their reactions on the market would become less panic, less fearful, less uncertain and no longer contribute to market crash like earliest times of that type of news and earliest news releases.

It was true with Bitcoin Futures applications, Bitcoin Spot ETF applications, China bans & crackdowns on Bitcoin. Again, this time, the psychology of market proves that it is almost the same with news about war.

[Minor Miner]

But since you ask then I think bitcoin already gives its answer and that’s is by the strong upward movement that bitcoin has shown since this war started, bitcoin got to $70k today while stocks are dumping. I think you have got your immediate reaction from bitcoin.

The stock market opened slightly lower but then rebounded. It has not fallen as sharply as you are saying, and bitcoin is not the only asset that's in the green.

Wars aren’t the same to use to predict the strength of bitcoin or other assets, because some wars are just regional without huge impacts on global economy but should this particular war turns out to be WWIII ( hopefully doesn’t) bitcoin will be the least of our worries

In my opinion, the Iran Israel war is not as serious as the Russia-Ukraine war. However, this will also have serious impacts on the global economy, not as simple as you might think. The Strait of Hormuz is the shipping route for approximately 20% of the world's oil and gas. If this shipping route is shut down, the oil supply will be disrupted and oil prices will rise, which will have a significant impact on the global economy. 

[Darker45]

I don't agree that what's happening right now in the middle east is a major test for Bitcoin. I don't even agree that we're in a wartime period. I even hesitate to call this a war. It's more of just an attack. This is just the US and its partner bullying an independent nation. Of course, Iran retaliated, but so far things haven't yet escalated into a real war. It's just a tit for tat for now.

As to Bitcoin's performance, so far so good. It seems it remains largely indifferent to what's merely a regional conflict, which is nothing new and surprising in that part of the world.