Strategic betting isn't just about being a good picker

[alani123]

I read that a trick of the most skilled punters who chase profits seek out to pick markets as early as possible.

For instance if you want to bet on a league's round of 16 when you know the next phase is determined by two matches between each team, you wait for the time the first round is finished to start betting on round 2 immediately.

This is the best window of opportunity to find mispriced odds.

The best such opportunities are in smaller leagues and competitions where certain grams are unlikely to have played each other such as the conference league. Avoid big leagues and especially in big sports. If your country is a small country then maybe knowing some information about your B league or not well known teams is idea.

Still you need to be a good picker but this is only a very small part of the equation. The odds and being able to tell when they're mispriced is the most major trick to success.

This makes me realize that many people will never be good pickers because they only want immediate results and are not willing to let their funds sit for weeks before a market has the chance to finalize. But when you bet late on match then the odds have already balanced out. Take out the bookie's cut and even if you make more than 50% good picks on such matches you can still be losing a lot of money.

[Gozie51]

This makes me realize that many people will never be good pickers because they only want immediate results and are not willing to let their funds sit for weeks before a market has the chance to finalize. But when you bet late on match then the odds have already balanced out. Take out the bookie's cut and even if you make more than 50% good picks on such matches you can still be losing a lot of money.

I understand what you mean but it is about preference of what you want to go for. The difference is the odds difference as the league or game proceed. Quite rightly, if you bet earlier in a season for instance about who will lift the trophy or tournament at the beginning, the odd is very high and with little bankroll you have a very good mouth watering potential than when the league is half way or about to end because it becomes competitive and almost likely to predict the winner, so the odd will drastically reduced. But however, the potential is just what it is (potential) because at the end of the day it can fail.

I don't like early picks even though it has high odd. The reason is during the tournament, so many circumstances may start to play out that will change the outcomes like injuries, cards, sacking of coach, weather etc. I like picks from midway in the tournament or even when it is ending. Or better still, picking a game same day it is playing   Hahaha, maybe I don't like to wait for long before I see the outcome of the pick.

[Charles-Tim]

Take out the bookie's cut and even if you make more than 50% good picks on such matches you can still be losing a lot of money.

You mean for people that are betting late on matches to be played? If that is what you mean, that is not true at all. Regardless of when you bet on the match, the bookies are only giving odds that can not favour the gamblers. I can say the betting sites are letting us know that we can make use of their sites but in a way that they will be the one winning our money and not us winning their money. 50% win on a betting site still means that the gambler is losing because of how the odds are set by the bookies.

[iv4n]

The best such opportunities are in smaller leagues and competitions where certain grams are unlikely to have played each other such as the conference league. Avoid big leagues and especially in big sports. If your country is a small country then maybe knowing some information about your B league or not well known teams is idea.

I see what you mean, but this is not really a strategy. It relies on having info that others don't... it makes it more like insider betting. It's not something we can learn... it depends on your position, and be aware that doing something like this from some positions is illegal.

This makes me realize that many people will never be good pickers because they only want immediate results and are not willing to let their funds sit for weeks before a market has the chance to finalize.

This is different... this is patience, and if you combine it with good analytic skills, maybe you can be profitable in the long run. Focus on the specific leagues & teams, patiently plan your next move... if you think it's tricky, pass it, you will get them next week. Patience & dedication... if you think you have it, give it a try. Good luck!

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I read that a trick of the most skilled punters who chase profits seek out to pick markets as early as possible.

While this can be true and realistic for most bettors, I also read that live betting is mostly profitable to a lot of punters, it has high risk but can be profitable to the skilled punters as well since they use different strategy or factors in determining how the match is likely to end. The punters that are betting on live do not pick the market very early but do that when the game is live and some could even bet when the match is on the second half (if it's a football game). Every skilled punter has his or her favorite strategy that they normally use.

[Wapfika]

There’s pros and cons with this strategy but surely you can spot error odds placement this way since it’s the initial offered odds by bookie that still doesn’t influence heavily by players bet.

The cons on this strategy is the late announcement for the injury and other changes on the team that affect their performance on that specific round.

But it’s the best method if you are seeking a prematch bet.

[Moreno233]

I read that a trick of the most skilled punters who chase profits seek out to pick markets as early as possible.

For instance if you want to bet on a league's round of 16 when you know the next phase is determined by two matches between each team, you wait for the time the first round is finished to start betting on round 2 immediately.

This is the best window of opportunity to find mispriced odds.

This method does not give the player any serious advantage, instead it even have hidden risk associated to it. For instance, assuming you bet Real Madrid ahead of time without knowing that they will enter into the mess they are in right now, you would have been regretting betting them ahead of time as they lost two matches, one to Osasuna and the other to Getafe, two teams they ought to win. I still prefer betting the match close to the day of the event despite that the odds will be adjusted to suit present realities.

[Ruttoshi]

The fact is that, I hate betting on small leagues because it isn't fun watching them. Your strategy only works for small league which isn't my thing. However, I love the fun, the thrill and the excitement from these big leagues and that's where the money is.

Gambling is a game of luck and no strategy can give you profits in the long run. Gamble responsible and stay healthy avoid any decisions that will affect you emotionally and don't gamble strictly for the sake of winning.

[danherbias07]

This requires monitoring the schedule of the game/sport you will bet on. It's not going to be an easy task, especially for those with jobs, but it might really work.

There was an instance in which I won a bet when I placed it too early. I remember it up until now, it's Jokic's total stats. 54 points+rebounds+assists is the bet I took, and then suddenly the odds changed. I was surprised that my bet was already green and I could actually cash it out for some profits even if the game had not started yet.
Truly, being an early bettor can sometimes be profitable, but there are times it could also mean we are risking our money for the unknown. Injuries, bad weather that might affect the performance of the players, and more.

[Marvelockg]

Still you need to be a good picker but this is only a very small part of the equation. The odds and being able to tell when they're mispriced is the most major trick to success.

There is not a single way of making your bet as far as i know and that has been the challenges that is associated with the game of gambling because sometimes being a good picker helps and sometimes, the odds might just work well for certain kind of games. it is not an easy task understanding how games works and the key part of it is that your strategy is only as useful as it is able to yield a reasonable win for you. there are some gamblers that are actually good pickers and that have mastered that art ad it is working well for them. the emphasis is just that everyone should know what works for them and stick to it.

[Findingnemo]

This can work but those are small leagues so it will probably be rare to find so chosing it as a real strategy will not work and often platforms void the bets with misplaced odds so better don't keep your hopes high.

And there is no real strategy, it all just the odds and one who knows the game and willing to take the risky picks can make more than others but higher odds comes with higher chance of losing the wagering amount, this is what gambling is and there is no way to beat it.

[Finestream]

Everyone has their own working method. For me, I don’t really bet early. I usually place my bets when I feel like it, and most of the time that’s just a few minutes before the game starts. Around five minutes before tip-off or kickoff, I feel like the market is already settled. The odds and lines have adjusted, and there aren’t many significant movements left unless there’s sudden news.

The thing is, whatever works for us doesn’t automatically work for others. We can learn from bettors who have proven themselves profitable, sure, but that still doesn’t guarantee it will work the same way for us. Two people can look at the exact same data and come to completely different conclusions. In the end, it really comes down to how you interpret the information and how comfortable you are with your own approach.

[Ever-young]

While this can be true and realistic for most bettors, I also read that live betting is mostly profitable to a lot of punters, it has high risk but can be profitable to the skilled punters as well since they use different strategy or factors in determining how the match is likely to end. The punters that are betting on live do not pick the market very early but do that when the game is live and some could even bet when the match is on the second half (if it's a football game). Every skilled punter has his or her favorite strategy that they normally use.

True, but it’s important to note that winning consistently as a regular gambler or a punter isn’t necessarily because they’re that skillful, because most of the times their analytical skills would fail them, that’s most of them have several techniques and approaches, so just incase one fails, they immediately switch to the other. But the truth is that, winning goes beyond just how effective the gambler’s skills are, but more about how lucky they are at that point in time…

[Somto9Light]

True, but it’s important to note that winning consistently as a regular gambler or a punter isn’t necessarily because they’re that skillful, because most of the times their analytical skills would fail them, that’s most of them have several techniques and approaches, so just incase one fails, they immediately switch to the other. But the truth is that, winning goes beyond just how effective the gambler’s skills are, but more about how lucky they are at that point in time…

Yeah, luck sure does play a very prominent role in deciding the outcome of every game, especially when it has to do with luck based and games that has a combination of both skill and luck, like sports betting. The only thing that skill and experience does in this case for the gambler is to help increase their chances of winning, but it doesn’t really guarantee them some win, and in the long run, the gambler still need to depend on his luck to actually get that win.

[Coyster]

To be honest, i don't see how much difference this would make. Even if you go early like you say, you are still predicting the outcome, which is unknown and that is why it is called gambling. I don't really look out for things like this, i believe it is employing too much "strategy" into something that would eventually be decided mainly by luck.

The only "strategy" i put into betting is checking the teams current form and their head to head. Sometimes i analyse the team morale and spirit in their last couple of games and that's that. I don't try to catch out the bookies, when i know how unlikely it is to be successful at that.

[alani123]

To be honest, i don't see how much difference this would make. Even if you go early like you say, you are still predicting the outcome, which is unknown and that is why it is called gambling. I don't really look out for things like this, i believe it is employing too much "strategy" into something that would eventually be decided mainly by luck.

The only "strategy" i put into betting is checking the teams current form and their head to head. Sometimes i analyse the team morale and spirit in their last couple of games and that's that. I don't try to catch out the bookies, when i know how unlikely it is to be successful at that.

The difference is in declining to bet on many matches where there's no apparent mispricing going on. Honestly with just a few good picks per week you can still make bank. It doesn't have to be much more than 3 or at least not much more. You have to scoure through hundreds of markets and find a few good options based on knowing which team is likely to win and also the market being mispriced.

It's not only about coming in early because people can also overestimate the odds of one team winning so very late after a market has been created the odds can also change. But the most common mispricing is when a not so well known teams plays and the bookmaker has to calculate initial odds for the first few people that bet. After enough mkney has been placed in a market odds tend to balance out.

[Mia Chloe]

~snip

Stacking odds is king but the risk is way too huge most times and some casinos don't really allow combo odds on the same match more like making a series of cumulative bets on the same team based on different things. Another winner in some cases is bets with very close odds usually with over 2.00 as multipliers.

But in many cases the more bets with bigger odds on a combo greatly reduces the chances of an overall win but it's still worth the try sometimes you never can tell how lucky you are.

[Alphakilo]

To be honest, i don't see how much difference this would make. Even if you go early like you say, you are still predicting the outcome, which is unknown and that is why it is called gambling. I don't really look out for things like this, i believe it is employing too much "strategy" into something that would eventually be decided mainly by luck.

The only "strategy" i put into betting is checking the teams current form and their head to head. Sometimes i analyse the team morale and spirit in their last couple of games and that's that. I don't try to catch out the bookies, when i know how unlikely it is to be successful at that.

I placed a bet on some games as at the end of last year unknowingly to me that the matches would be played on the 20th of January 2026. It was very easy to pick out easy odds from these teams although I didn't segregate the division and league I picked, but by the due date, when the bookies had changed their odds to reflect the current reality of these teams, it still didn't play out to a win, not even cashout options worked in that regard.
Although that's a different strategy as Op has said, but I think I have always had better outcomes when I place a bet while the games are live or about to start in a few hours. Just saying what I think because I have had my own experience and I know what works best for me.

[DubemIfedigbo001]

I read that a trick of the most skilled punters who chase profits seek out to pick markets as early as possible.

For instance if you want to bet on a league's round of 16 when you know the next phase is determined by two matches between each team, you wait for the time the first round is finished to start betting on round 2 immediately.

This is the best window of opportunity to find mispriced odds.

The best such opportunities are in smaller leagues and competitions where certain grams are unlikely to have played each other such as the conference league. Avoid big leagues and especially in big sports. If your country is a small country then maybe knowing some information about your B league or not well known teams is idea.

Still you need to be a good picker but this is only a very small part of the equation. The odds and being able to tell when they're mispriced is the most major trick to success.

This makes me realize that many people will never be good pickers because they only want immediate results and are not willing to let their funds sit for weeks before a market has the chance to finalize. But when you bet late on match then the odds have already balanced out. Take out the bookie's cut and even if you make more than 50% good picks on such matches you can still be losing a lot of money.

This is one strategy that sounds good theoretically but when it comes to securing wins, it may act against the gambler. I've seen odds higher when the match is far away, but starts getting smaller as match day approaches, it's a normal thing but staking those matches much earlier isn't the best strategy since there may be some team developments that would greatly invalidate your earlier pick like some key players getting injured in other competitions that they engage in it or one of the teams being in a worse form than when the first leg was played. The odds shouldn't be the main target but the higher possibility of winning the bet.

[Fortify]

Anyone who has watched odds movement closely will understand that the margins do narrow and change the closer to the event you get. This is in part because the bookmaker is adjusting all the time and sometimes offering different odds if they are weighted too far on different sides of the bet. They will allow an element of risk on the side of the favorites, but ideally would like a situation where they make money on any outcome. Casinos are very methodical in that sense and have a margin on top of each bet that allows this profitability, even after all the complex AI analysis and forecasting that goes into it. The longer from the event, the more likely the average person betting will have the advantage over odds, but this is more true in events like horse racing where the markets can swing heavily.