ANN: Quantoshi - Bitcoin price extrapolator

[bg002h]

Introducing Quantoshi!

I made some tools to help people wrap their heads around Bitcoin as an investment. It’s an extrapolation tool with quantile regression and it lets you see extrapolated future price but also do things like simulate Bitcoin purchases and see how risky price is in extrapolations.

Suppose you buy Bitcoin at the 50th percentile for January 2026 ($113.3K) and price falls to 5th percentile and stays there for 7 years…what will my compound annual growth rate be each year?

Want to see how big DCA will grow your stack at various future values of Bitcoin price growth? Want to simulate retiring on Bitcoin in 2039 at 4% inflation and $5,000 a month drawdown?

Want to track your Bitcoin DCA’s and smash buys?

Find Quantoshi here: https://quantoshi.xyz

It’s not perfect…remember, I’m a practicing radiologist with a day job and I only decided two nights ago to convert my charting code to a web app.

It’s free/BSD-2 with source here: https://github.com/bg002h/quantoshi

But please remember, this is just math, not a prediction.

I did this for me, primarily, but I’ll update it now and then, but remember, you too can just do stuff. I’m proof, I did a thing!

[MarryWithBTC]

Big idea. I visited the website, I tried to do stuffs but I could not do much. You mentioned that you built it for yourself, maybe you should consider to be more elaborate now it is for the public consumption.

I wanted to stimulate retiring in 2043 by $100 weekly DCA. With 4% inflation and $5k monthly drawdown, will I be able to retire well. I will like you to stimulate this for me.

Introducing Quantoshi!

Want to see how big DCA will grow your stack at various future values of Bitcoin price growth? Want to simulate retiring on Bitcoin in 2039 at 4% inflation and $5,000 a month drawdown?

Edit: I love your quote, that is among the best I have seen in the recent time.

Hardforks aren't that hard. It’s getting others to use them that's hard.

[bg002h]

Big idea. I visited the website, I tried to do stuffs but I could not do much. You mentioned that you built it for yourself, maybe you should consider to be more elaborate now it is for the public consumption.

I wanted to stimulate retiring in 2043 by $100 weekly DCA. With 4% inflation and $5k monthly drawdown, will I be able to retire well. I will like you to stimulate this for me.

Introducing Quantoshi!

Want to see how big DCA will grow your stack at various future values of Bitcoin price growth? Want to simulate retiring on Bitcoin in 2039 at 4% inflation and $5,000 a month drawdown?

Edit: I love your quote, that is among the best I have seen in the recent time.

Hardforks aren't that hard. It’s getting others to use them that's hard.

I can walk you through that, but it’s all there. I use iPhone and Linux, so I can’t vouch for what you see.


Your task is a two step problem. Step 1) use BTC Accumulator tab to extrapolate out accumulated sats.  Here is is a link to that:

https://quantoshi.xyz/3#q2:H4sIAPagqGkC_82PMQqAQAwE_7L1IvFEwZdYhCB6dygYtFARf6_gJ2ymmGpGdT3d-TsI1ViKEF3Oi9-gBgkNg1StEeMRX4N93q7e85TXBCKdg_c3jCpFSSlq-98XUhzwddkDSDO7DnwBAAA=

$100 weekly DCA gets you to 0.2416 if price follows 10th percentile and 0.1502 if price follows 50th percentile and tou stack to 2039 (extrapolated).

Step 2 is to use the BTC RetireMentator tab and put in your stack. Let’s say your stack is the average of those two: 0.1959

Here is a link to that: link

Good news: stacking until 2039 extrapolates out to $5k/mo until at least 2075 at 4% inflation

Step3) try the HODL Supercharger to look at the effect on the extrapolation of delaying retirement by a year..or two…or four…

Here is a link to that:

link

Good news…this extrapolates to a rich man.

Step 4) Maybe you want to know how much you could spend to die with nothing in 2070…here is a link to that:

https://quantoshi.xyz/5#q2:H4sIAFuiqGkC_-WOXwrDIAyH75LnHyPalW2H2AlEiltFH0RHtZTdfkmvsYd8fPlDEufqXgr-CM7D8vQAw8Diijvo2erI5UuSOb4wGwhngYpRsRoqkwe9CDMzy5rbrGDQ3leCo1BrG2FEApWWFtlIPbdjKTHFupKXkZ7DGsXOC-dD1PdP3N45bEkbWvM_drwLopcBAAA=

Good news…this extrapolates to $22k-78k/mo depending on whether you delay retirement by 0-8 years.

Play around with the extrapolations. But you’re left to your own intellect to make predictions from extrapolations.

https://quantoshi.xyz/7.3

[bg002h]

lol, I appreciate the reply. I’ve found another bug where inputs are being ignored. Fixing…