Will The Middle Eastern War Tension Crash Bitcoin

[Dave1]

We were already in a bear market before the war started, obviously bad macro news can be a catalyst but we were on a big run down any way. I think Trump has been awful for Bitcoin, starting with his tariffs BS and all the way to this war. I just think if she STFU sometimes and wasn’t so keen to kiss Israel’s ass we would have hit 200k.

When Bitcoin started to decline late last year, it could be the start of the bear market. It was just accelerated on Feb 28 when Iran and the US started the war on Israel. So regardless if they start the war or not, the market is going to decline and we will be in this bearish price sooner or later.

It wasn’t to be, we will have to wait a couple of years now for the space to turn bullish. I guess you can try to turn a negative into a positive and use this time as a buying opportunity.

~24 months or around that time that we will be bullish again. For some, it's a lot of time. But for those who have experience multiple bull run, then it's nothing. They know when to enter and started to accumulate for as far as that time frame and buy as much as they can in preparation for the next bullish phase.

[summonerrk]

The market is turning towards risk reduction: Trump's speech on Iran was noticeably harsher than expected.
 He announced his readiness to intensify strikes in the coming weeks. In response, Brent crude oil rose to \$109 per barrel, while cryptocurrencies began to decline. The main disappointment was that Trump did not provide an exact timeline for the end of the operation.
 There is also uncertainty regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
 Today, there is a significant reevaluation of inflationary and geopolitical risks ahead of the long weekend.  The situation with cryptocurrencies has become more complicated, but there is no sign of capitulation. BTC $66-67K.
In March, spot Bitcoin ETFs showed an inflow of $1.32 billion after four months of outflow, indicating a return of institutional demand to the range of $65,000-70,000.
Since the beginning of the year, the share of BTC in portfolios has remained at around 58%.

[bubilas]

The market is turning towards risk reduction: Trump's speech on Iran was noticeably harsher than expected.
 He announced his readiness to intensify strikes in the coming weeks. In response, Brent crude oil rose to \$109 per barrel, while cryptocurrencies began to decline. The main disappointment was that Trump did not provide an exact timeline for the end of the operation.
 There is also uncertainty regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
 Today, there is a significant reevaluation of inflationary and geopolitical risks ahead of the long weekend.  The situation with cryptocurrencies has become more complicated, but there is no sign of capitulation. BTC $66-67K.
In March, spot Bitcoin ETFs showed an inflow of $1.32 billion after four months of outflow, indicating a return of institutional demand to the range of $65,000-70,000.
Since the beginning of the year, the share of BTC in portfolios has remained at around 58%.

Money is leaving long-term and cyclical assets, such as energy, the defense industry, the dollar, and defensive stocks. This can be seen in the leadership of the oil industry and the inflow into dividend/income funds.
However, this inflow was driven by the hope of de-escalation. Now, some of this money is clearly beginning to hedge and reduce risks. Many investors will try to enter the weekend with less risk. Cryptocurrency remains under pressure, but without a collapse. Leaders of the week: energy, dividend/value stocks, defensive assets, dollar. But highly volatile cryptocurrencies are the outsiders.
Possible bullish scenario: a clear signal of de-escalation of the conflict with Iran.

[summonerrk]

The market is turning towards risk reduction: Trump's speech on Iran was noticeably harsher than expected.
 He announced his readiness to intensify strikes in the coming weeks. In response, Brent crude oil rose to \$109 per barrel, while cryptocurrencies began to decline. The main disappointment was that Trump did not provide an exact timeline for the end of the operation.
 There is also uncertainty regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
 Today, there is a significant reevaluation of inflationary and geopolitical risks ahead of the long weekend.  The situation with cryptocurrencies has become more complicated, but there is no sign of capitulation. BTC $66-67K.
In March, spot Bitcoin ETFs showed an inflow of $1.32 billion after four months of outflow, indicating a return of institutional demand to the range of $65,000-70,000.
Since the beginning of the year, the share of BTC in portfolios has remained at around 58%.

Money is leaving long-term and cyclical assets, such as energy, the defense industry, the dollar, and defensive stocks. This can be seen in the leadership of the oil industry and the inflow into dividend/income funds.
However, this inflow was driven by the hope of de-escalation. Now, some of this money is clearly beginning to hedge and reduce risks. Many investors will try to enter the weekend with less risk. Cryptocurrency remains under pressure, but without a collapse. Leaders of the week: energy, dividend/value stocks, defensive assets, dollar. But highly volatile cryptocurrencies are the outsiders.
Possible bullish scenario: a clear signal of de-escalation of the conflict with Iran.

After an attempt to consolidate above 69k at the beginning of the week, BTC entered a cautious consolidation phase amid geopolitics, tight rates, and limited liquidity. When major stock exchanges are closed, crypto acts as a 24/7 barometer of global risks and serves as the first "entry point" for capital that cannot be repaid through traditional markets.
Until Monday, there is a possibility of a geopolitical escalation (the Ormuz incident), which could lead to gaps on Monday: oil prices rising, stocks falling, and crypto initially following the risk-off trend before attempting to rebound.
On the positive side, there is no bad news and a soft news background, which will allow the markets to slowly return to risk-on on Monday.

[Emeraldo]

22 march : Trump announced he would obliterate Iran's power plants if Iran was not opening Hormuz in 48 hours, and Iran threatened him back to fully close Hormuz. Right after then Bitcoin, Gold and Stock have fallen together while Crude Oil price was pumped.

Today: Trump announces to postpone his plan, and he has positive talk with Iran to end the war. Bitcoin, Gold and Stock rebound and Crude Oil price is dumping.

I'm thinking if the focus is not even the war, but Trump. Anytime he speaks bad or good news, market is always dumping or pumping. He becomes the centre of the market right now. All of pessimism and optimism is fully rooting on him even when what he says sometimes is BS. He likes the ruler of market right now.

This war could become very devastating if the issue is not being resolved. Trump will need to know what he is doing so that he does not bring the entire Europe to this war which could lead to a regional war and from their we could be seeing a world war 3 soon.
The price of Bitcoin has been affected multiple times because of this war and it will not make a sense if Bitcoin continues to fall because of the bad news that is spreading all over the Internet due to the war outcome.

[coinrifft]

22 march : Trump announced he would obliterate Iran's power plants if Iran was not opening Hormuz in 48 hours, and Iran threatened him back to fully close Hormuz. Right after then Bitcoin, Gold and Stock have fallen together while Crude Oil price was pumped.

Today: Trump announces to postpone his plan, and he has positive talk with Iran to end the war. Bitcoin, Gold and Stock rebound and Crude Oil price is dumping.

I'm thinking if the focus is not even the war, but Trump. Anytime he speaks bad or good news, market is always dumping or pumping. He becomes the centre of the market right now. All of pessimism and optimism is fully rooting on him even when what he says sometimes is BS. He likes the ruler of market right now.

This war could become very devastating if the issue is not being resolved. Trump will need to know what he is doing so that he does not bring the entire Europe to this war which could lead to a regional war and from their we could be seeing a world war 3 soon.
The price of Bitcoin has been affected multiple times because of this war and it will not make a sense if Bitcoin continues to fall because of the bad news that is spreading all over the Internet due to the war outcome.

The damage has been done already, most countries doesn't want to engage in the war. And even some countries that hit hard by Iran in the Middle East doesn't want to retort to also siding with Israel or US in this war. So this is war only between US/Israel vs Iran, I don't think that there will be a world war 3 coming soon. There are some positive news that there could be peace talks, but we don't know when it's going to be as the US keeps bombing Iran right this very moment. So it will have a negative impact on the price of all assets and commodities if this war continues.

[imthegreat]

Until Monday, there is a possibility of a geopolitical escalation (the Ormuz incident), which could lead to gaps on Monday: oil prices rising, stocks falling, and crypto initially following the risk-off trend before attempting to rebound.
On the positive side, there is no bad news and a soft news background, which will allow the markets to slowly return to risk-on on Monday.

I want to laugh at this Trump. Operation "Epic TACO" was a success: March 21, 2026 - the first 48-hour ultimatum.
March 23, 2026 - Iran remains silent, but Trump has already "rolled back" the deadline.
March 25-27, 2026 - the second rollback, and the ultimatum is extended to April 6. On April 5, Trump again postpones the deadline, but does not cancel the threat. On April 7 (evening, USA): Trump announced a two-week suspension of strikes against Iran.
Condition:
Iran ensures the full, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This happened an hour and a half before the ultimatum expired. And April 8 (night/morning, Iran):
The Supreme National Security Council of Iran published a response:
Thank you to Pakistan for their mediation. If the attacks cease, Iran will stop its defensive actions. A safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is possible for two weeks (in coordination with Iranian forces).
Iran emphasized that this is not the end of the war, but rather a pause for negotiations based on its 10-point proposal.
As of April 8: A mutual two-week truce mediated by Pakistan. Negotiations are planned in Islamabad. The initial 48-hour demand for the full opening of Hormuz has not been met, but there has also been no severe attack on Iranian power plants.
The situation remains fragile.

[bubilas]

Until Monday, there is a possibility of a geopolitical escalation (the Ormuz incident), which could lead to gaps on Monday: oil prices rising, stocks falling, and crypto initially following the risk-off trend before attempting to rebound.
On the positive side, there is no bad news and a soft news background, which will allow the markets to slowly return to risk-on on Monday.

I want to laugh at this Trump. Operation "Epic TACO" was a success: March 21, 2026 - the first 48-hour ultimatum.
March 23, 2026 - Iran remains silent, but Trump has already "rolled back" the deadline.
March 25-27, 2026 - the second rollback, and the ultimatum is extended to April 6. On April 5, Trump again postpones the deadline, but does not cancel the threat. On April 7 (evening, USA): Trump announced a two-week suspension of strikes against Iran.
Condition:
Iran ensures the full, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This happened an hour and a half before the ultimatum expired. And April 8 (night/morning, Iran):
The Supreme National Security Council of Iran published a response:
Thank you to Pakistan for their mediation. If the attacks cease, Iran will stop its defensive actions. A safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is possible for two weeks (in coordination with Iranian forces).
Iran emphasized that this is not the end of the war, but rather a pause for negotiations based on its 10-point proposal.
As of April 8: A mutual two-week truce mediated by Pakistan. Negotiations are planned in Islamabad. The initial 48-hour demand for the full opening of Hormuz has not been met, but there has also been no severe attack on Iranian power plants.
The situation remains fragile.

Oh, Trump, Trump
Brent crude oil, which fell by more than 12% by yesterday's close, is now at levels that have already been reached during Trump's current emotional outbursts. This happened twice at the end of March and once in the first ten days of March.
The terms that Donald allegedly agreed to with the Iranian side are truly fantastic. Let's be honest, no one would be surprised if an "elephant entered a shop" again tomorrow.
As for Bitcoin, its price has increased from 68k to 72k since yesterday evening.

[Alonso_]

There is absolutely no chance that the middle Eastern War is going to affect the bitcoin or make Bitcoin eradicated, I absolutely don’t see how Bitcoin is going to crash anytime soon, the war can only make bitcoin fluctuate significantly but if it’s about making the war go away I must say that is absolutely wrong, the war can’t kill bitcoin, bitcoin will continue to be there after the war and bitcoin would continue to thrive in a very good way, you might even have a large pump in the bitcoin price, however we might stand a big chance of having a new All Time high in the bitcoin price.

[summonerrk]

Until Monday, there is a possibility of a geopolitical escalation (the Ormuz incident), which could lead to gaps on Monday: oil prices rising, stocks falling, and crypto initially following the risk-off trend before attempting to rebound.
On the positive side, there is no bad news and a soft news background, which will allow the markets to slowly return to risk-on on Monday.

I want to laugh at this Trump. Operation "Epic TACO" was a success: March 21, 2026 - the first 48-hour ultimatum.
March 23, 2026 - Iran remains silent, but Trump has already "rolled back" the deadline.
March 25-27, 2026 - the second rollback, and the ultimatum is extended to April 6. On April 5, Trump again postpones the deadline, but does not cancel the threat. On April 7 (evening, USA): Trump announced a two-week suspension of strikes against Iran.
Condition:
Iran ensures the full, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This happened an hour and a half before the ultimatum expired. And April 8 (night/morning, Iran):
The Supreme National Security Council of Iran published a response:
Thank you to Pakistan for their mediation. If the attacks cease, Iran will stop its defensive actions. A safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is possible for two weeks (in coordination with Iranian forces).
Iran emphasized that this is not the end of the war, but rather a pause for negotiations based on its 10-point proposal.
As of April 8: A mutual two-week truce mediated by Pakistan. Negotiations are planned in Islamabad. The initial 48-hour demand for the full opening of Hormuz has not been met, but there has also been no severe attack on Iranian power plants.
The situation remains fragile.

Oh, Trump, Trump
Brent crude oil, which fell by more than 12% by yesterday's close, is now at levels that have already been reached during Trump's current emotional outbursts. This happened twice at the end of March and once in the first ten days of March.
The terms that Donald allegedly agreed to with the Iranian side are truly fantastic. Let's be honest, no one would be surprised if an "elephant entered a shop" again tomorrow.
As for Bitcoin, its price has increased from 68k to 72k since yesterday evening.

Over the week, global risk appetite received a clear signal to recover: US markets demonstrated one of the strongest short-term rallies in recent years, with a pronounced rotation of capital into growth and cyclical sectors. At the same time, the market situation remains tense due to the partial restriction of transit through the Strait of Hormuz and increased sensitivity to geopolitical scenarios in the Middle East.
 The main fundamental trigger for the rally was the drop in oil prices below $100 per barrel and the weakening of the US dollar.
 This accelerated the flow of capital from treasury bonds, gold, and some energy assets to stocks, technology companies, and cryptocurrencies.
 

[imthegreat]

 The main fundamental trigger for the rally was the drop in oil prices below $100 per barrel and the weakening of the US dollar.
 This accelerated the flow of capital from treasury bonds, gold, and some energy assets to stocks, technology companies, and cryptocurrencies.
 

Thanks for this info. Interesting. Only a year ago, the dominant factor was a shift in macro policy and expectations for the Fed, and in April 2026, this was added to the geopolitical filter around Hormuz. I am surprised that Trump's influence on the market has continued throughout his tenure. What I have described has led to a rapid shift of funds from bonds and, to some extent, gold to stocks and cryptocurrencies. This is remarkable.
Importantly, the market has effectively ignored the violations of the ceasefire and the ongoing risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Well, let's see how this will affect the crypto industry in the future.

[bubilas]

 The main fundamental trigger for the rally was the drop in oil prices below $100 per barrel and the weakening of the US dollar.
 This accelerated the flow of capital from treasury bonds, gold, and some energy assets to stocks, technology companies, and cryptocurrencies.
 

Thanks for this info. Interesting. Only a year ago, the dominant factor was a shift in macro policy and expectations for the Fed, and in April 2026, this was added to the geopolitical filter around Hormuz. I am surprised that Trump's influence on the market has continued throughout his tenure. What I have described has led to a rapid shift of funds from bonds and, to some extent, gold to stocks and cryptocurrencies. This is remarkable.
Importantly, the market has effectively ignored the violations of the ceasefire and the ongoing risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Well, let's see how this will affect the crypto industry in the future.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively under Tehran's control. Since April 8, only 15 ships have passed through the strait.
There are 200-250 oil tankers accumulating inside the Persian Gulf, creating a huge bubble of unexported products. Brent remains around $97-100. The crypto market confirmed this week that the key trigger now is not news about missiles, but the fall in oil prices and the weakening of the dollar.
DXY has settled below 100. Institutional demand has been the main driver of growth, and short squeezes have been a powerful accelerator.
This led to a +5,000 increase in Bitcoin prices on April 7.