The economics of war on Iran

[fuguebtc]

I just hope the price of goods/foods remains the same, if not, people must face or feel the negative impacts of the hardship. When the fuel price was at the rate of N920,N950 the price of Foods were dropped to some certain level and everyone were happy and there was a less difficulties on financial challenges or hardship. We pay things get better soon.

This is inevitable. Because rising oil prices will lead to increased transportation and production costs. This will lead to increased prices for goods/food, and ultimately, the people will be the ones to bear the negative consequences.

With oil prices surging, inflation will rise again and we will soon feel the real impact of this war on our daily lives. So let's all prepare for the difficulties ahead because the war will not end anytime soon.

[sana54210]

Spain situation is a bit different, I am not Spanish, so I have no clue and some Spanish person here would be able to enlighten the subject a lot more. However, they are basically saying, we would help on defensive side, but not on offensive side. It means, they are not going to help out USA and Israel on attacking Iran, they are not going to bomb a nation, that's not something they are willing to do.

However, Iran also sends missiles to other nations, specially places like Cyprus , so Spain is saying that for the missiles sent from Iran, they are willing to defend nations. So, they are not "in favour of Iran" or anything like that, they are not, they are just not willing to be on the offensive side of the war.

[AprilioMP]

I'm of the position that the world stands to lose a lot if America imposes war on Iran.

Oil prices will go up and eventually things will become more expensive all around. Gulf countries which produce a lot of the west's oil will be blocked from exporting and a lot of NATO infrastructure in the area including European soil like Souda in Greece and Akrotiri in Cyprus stands to face a lot of instability.

Some people say that one of the reasons Iran is being attacked is because they're utilizing their oil to incentivize cheap bitcoin mining, landing their costs to mine a single BTC at around 2k USD. Even if the cost analysis is true it's ridiculous and entire country woold be bombed over this.

It is impossible for the global economy not to be affected by the US-Israel war with Iran. Crude oil is a major factor disrupting the economy because the Strait of Hormuz is a key point along the route. Only two countries can enter and exit, namely China and Russia, if I am not mistaken in naming the two countries that have good relations with Iran in many sectors.

As for Bitcoin, I have been monitoring it since the war began, and there has not been much movement.
Strangely, Trump has not learned from the Vietnam War. In many sectors, not just the economy, Iran is superior to the US. That is why many other countries also support Iran, even though they do not openly declare their allegiance to Iran.

[Franctoshi]

I'm of the position that the world stands to lose a lot if America imposes war on Iran.

Oil prices will go up and eventually things will become more expensive all around. Gulf countries which produce a lot of the west's oil will be blocked from exporting and a lot of NATO infrastructure in the area including European soil like Souda in Greece and Akrotiri in Cyprus stands to face a lot of instability.

Some people say that one of the reasons Iran is being attacked is because they're utilizing their oil to incentivize cheap bitcoin mining, landing their costs to mine a single BTC at around 2k USD. Even if the cost analysis is true it's ridiculous and entire country woold be bombed over this.

The effect or the negative impact of the war between the US, Israel and Iran is already hitting us here, the pump price of PMS here already gone up almost double of its price and the snow ball effect has begun, where prices of goods and services are again  skyrocketing. This is indeed a global effect not only Iran that is feeling the hit, other countries too after the shortage in the supply of crude oil that caused its price to rise.

[barbara44]

The USA has quit every war since Vietnam including Vietnam.

 i give them a push with north and south korea 🇰🇷

but all the ones after they came they killed people and they left.

the only ones that made out are weapons makers that sold weapons

They have to justify 1 trillion dollars to military every single year. That's literally the only reason, if they had universal healthcare, they could have capped the price of drugs, and what hospitals could charge, and use that 1 trillion dollars a year on covering everyone for free, add the insurance people are paying already, we would have an entire USA population, not paying a cent more than what they are paying now, in fact paying LESS than what they are paying now, and would get healthcare.

Yet, they instead spend that money on military budget, so for the government to tell people "I am sorry that your brother died because he couldn't get insulin he needed, but military needs that money" they have to be in a war constantly.

[aylabadia05]

Trump seems strange and crazy in the war on Iran. He is too arrogant, as if he has not thought things through.

if anything he might have thought things through and he’s being cunning about this. he doesn’t care what the war costs as long as he is able to reap the rewards

Contradictory. His decision does not reflect what is actually needed by Americans in particular and the world's citizens in general.
War does not bring “benefits” in quotation marks if that is what it is intended for. There are only losses on many sides. Look at how much war costs. Human lives are lost, even innocent civilians.

Enough of this. This discussion is purely political, and I'm not particularly interested in such nonsense.

[Bitcoin.com97]

You see that oil price , you are right it will affect the oil price and global economic impact , oil supply will definitely hurt the economies worth wide , war is not a good thing , it reduces growth, lives will also be affected, and it’s not only going to be the both country , others are going to suffer for  it , imagine supply of phone is pending, the available once are high , so many things has beginning to increase drastically, let their peace , enough of war here , war there , we need growth , lives and properties are going down, it’s really bad.

[Mate2237]

Some people say that one of the reasons Iran is being attacked is because they're utilizing their oil to incentivize cheap bitcoin mining, landing their costs to mine a single BTC at around 2k USD. Even if the cost analysis is true it's ridiculous and entire country woold be bombed over this.

I don't think that, the reason why Iran is been attacked is because of their cheap mining cost when it comes to Bitcoin, due to cheap energy supply in the country. We all know the reason why Iran is been attacked by Israel and the United States of America, there relationship with America has not been the best in recent times due to their perceived nuclear program and the potential security threats that they pose to Israel.


This war is about interest and that is what we all should take note of. This war will cost a lot on the both sides because wars is one thing that is funded with a lot of money.

[coupable]

I do not completely understand one part, and if anyone could explain it to me that would be lovely. Why did the price of oil went up? Like a barrel of it went up? Iran may not be sharing their oil with anyone right now because they are at war and not selling oil right now.

There are direct factors contributing to the rise in the barrel price under the current circumstances of potential global war. Let me list some of them:
- America and Israel target oil refineries and drilling sites in Iran which causes the reduce in daily production. Without to mention sanctions imposed on iran oil exportations already before the war.
- Iran responds to the attack by targeting drilling sites and oil tankers in Gulf States which are great oil producers, which also forces them to reduce production.
- Threats from iran to close Strait of Hormuz which about 20% of global oil transportation goes through.
- Threats from iran to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait which about 16% of global oil transportation goes through.
- International sanctions imposed on iran oil exportations already before the war.
- Expensive cost to produce and export oil from other resouces like Venezuila.

This great reduce in global oil production would directly result to a great jump on oil prices that reached 109$ today.

[Cookdata]

The effect or the negative impact of the war between the US, Israel and Iran is already hitting us here, the pump price of PMS here already gone up almost double of its price and the snow ball effect has begun, where prices of goods and services are again  skyrocketing. This is indeed a global effect not only Iran that is feeling the hit, other countries too after the shortage in the supply of crude oil that caused its price to rise.

I was home throughout the weekend when I read that strait of Hormuz will be partially block and there will be scarcity of fuel and other hydrocarbons but I was skeptical it was going to be manipulation of prices by the marketers to make money during this war but on seeing how oil well are bombed in Iran, then the reality begin to show that there will be scarcity of oil for sure. To comfirm it, I went to get gasoline today while going for work and the new sale price shocked me.

It's going to be on record that the president that campaign there will be no war was the first country that initiated this horrible war that is affecting us all in every part of the world. There will be no one left out except for countries that has oil wells and big refineries to settle their consumption otherwise we all going to buy this hydrocarbons at expensive prices.

[HyperCodexV]

I'm of the position that the world stands to lose a lot if America imposes war on Iran.

Oil prices will go up and eventually things will become more expensive all around. Gulf countries which produce a lot of the west's oil will be blocked from exporting and a lot of NATO infrastructure in the area including European soil like Souda in Greece and Akrotiri in Cyprus stands to face a lot of instability.

Some people say that one of the reasons Iran is being attacked is because they're utilizing their oil to incentivize cheap bitcoin mining, landing their costs to mine a single BTC at around 2k USD. Even if the cost analysis is true it's ridiculous and entire country woold be bombed over this.

Well, since the war is already happening as we speak, the economic consequences are already starting to show rapidly. Whenever there is conflict in that region, oil prices usually react quickly because the Middle East is very important for global energy supply. If the fighting continues or spreads beyond the level at which it is now, then it could make oil even more expensive and that will without a doubt affect prices of many things around the world.

For Bitcoin mining aspect, even if Iran benefits from cheap energy for mining, it’s very unlikely that something like that alone would be the real reason behind such a conflict. Because wars usually happen because of bigger geopolitical and strategic interests.

[STT]

Iran has declared any country that expels US and Israel diplomats will be allowed to sail ships past their shoreline.   Its never simple but an excess of politics and war is bad for business by everyone, nobody is winning here.

Only thing you can really be sure of is when politics declines in volume then the rest of humanity can continue to exist once more and business can resume for the health of nations.
   Bitcoin does have some relation to energy, I see it as some alternative to the need to transport energy as BTC can consume energy locally and transmit the results in some sort of efficient commerce but it is hard to see this as helpful during a war especially so BTC isnt gaining here either.

[BALIK]

It's going to be on record that the president that campaign there will be no war was the first country that initiated this horrible war that is affecting us all in every part of the world.

What you said reminds me of Trump's statement during the Obama presidency. If I remember correctly, at that time he had not even entered politics yet. But Trump frequently criticized Obama and claimed that he would go to war with Iran because of his lack of negotiation skills and expertise. But ironically, it was Trump and no one else who initiated the war with Iran.

Worse still, his term has 3 year left, and it is hard to know how many more wars he'll start.


https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/399731975432728576

There will be no one left out except for countries that has oil wells and big refineries to settle their consumption otherwise we all going to buy this hydrocarbons at expensive prices.

Are you referring to Russia? Yes, they are probably the only country currently benefiting from this war.

[alani123]

Are you referring to Russia? Yes, they are probably the only country currently benefiting from this war.

Which is super funny to think about because Trump just lifted sanctions on countries that trade oil with Russia.
I guess Trump realized utilizing tariffs and sactions won't work if the goal is to keep oil prices down. This has been such a pivotal point in his campaigning but with the wars and sanctions he keeps waging it won't be long until gas in the US becomes unaffordable again.

People are saying the US can't keep mounting on pressure but that remains to be seen I guess. Until the US stops dropping bombs I won't believe anything.

[Zlantann]

Are you referring to Russia? Yes, they are probably the only country currently benefiting from this war.

Which is super funny to think about because Trump just lifted sanctions on countries that trade oil with Russia.
I guess Trump realized utilizing tariffs and sactions won't work if the goal is to keep oil prices down. This has been such a pivotal point in his campaigning but with the wars and sanctions he keeps waging it won't be long until gas in the US becomes unaffordable again.

People are saying the US can't keep mounting on pressure but that remains to be seen I guess. Until the US stops dropping bombs I won't believe anything.

Wouldn't lifting sanctions on Russia's oil increase the country's revenue to finance the war in Ukraine? The US is just confusing the global economy and politics. Russia will also use the funds to invest in the Iranian military industry. Russia relies on Iran for many pieces of equipment that are used to execute its war. Iran is known to develop cheap drones and other things.

Trump has said that the war will end in weeks after the US has achieved its goals. Let's hope that it will end because the effect will affect many countries. There is already a severe energy crisis in some countries, such as Bangladesh.

[Hamza2424]

Exactly, the OP is about 5 days behind what is happening, we are already 6 days into the attack on Oran
and fuel prices have already risen multiple times.

Oil is the determining factor regarding the economics of this war, it affects EVERYTHING, not just what
you put in your car but what you put in your mouth too.

Thanks to the US/Israel decision to attack Iran the rest of the world will be affected because about 25%
of the global supply has been affected.

The US or Israel is still not ready to accept that what they have done was worthless. They started a war that, in the eyes of experts, was not necessary. Their explanations in their briefs are useless, like they said, they think, yeah, they said they think haha, Iran is going to attack them, so they attack first.

First, it was about them becoming a nuclear power and this has been an excuse since 2000s, I think. They are infiltrating the Middle East with their evil agenda since the start but I don't think they calculated the impact of war before starting it. Because they did took the oil of Venezuela before they started the war. So while the rest of the world will suffer maybe they will suffer a little less btw by numbers they shouldn't be suffering Idk why they are showing to world they are.

[batang_bitcoin]

Iran has declared any country that expels US and Israel diplomats will be allowed to sail ships past their shoreline.   Its never simple but an excess of politics and war is bad for business by everyone, nobody is winning here.

And the first one to do that is Spain: Spain permanently withdraws ambassador to Israel as rift deepens
This is no longer about politics but about the concern to their people. They want to get that supply of oil so that there won't be any economic crisis happens to Spain. IMHO, this is a good move as their main concern is about partnership to any country where they can benefit with.
Let's see on who are the next countries that's going to follow the same decision.

[alani123]

IEA saying they'll release reserves to the tune of 400 million barrels certainly seems to have been priced in after prices of crude rose and fell again. There was no reaction after the announcement. Nevertheless crude prices are still up from 65ish USD before Israel and the US started  bombing Iran. If the war goes on like this and if Iran keeps blocking the straits no amount of reserves is going to save the situation. Gulf countries will be starved of their main income source and will face unbearable economic pressure.

It's a war of attrition that Iran has been training for decades having extra increased endurance thanks to sanctions, ironically.

Funny to see Trump saying they might end the war soon due to achieving all objectives. Literally what was achieved?

[mindrust]

There is way too much uncertainty. Nobody can predict how this conflict will end. It reminds me of the covid19 era. The difference is that we haven’t gotten a big stock market crash, yet. I feel like we are one step away from that. One more major bad news and the Nasdaq will be down 20%. Check the chart, the Nasdaq is going higher and higher in the last 15 years or something. No sideways at all. On the other hand US national debt is also rising… Not sure if this is sustainable. It looks like something is about to snap soon.

[fighter2627]

We are already feeling the effects of the increase in oil prices here, just one day it immediately increased to around $1.85 per liter while before the price increased it was $1.15,
that is already a bit of a pain in the pockets of motorists here, maybe one day people will just ride ebikes or bicycles due to the high cost of gasoline.

It will probably be followed by the increase in electricity, water, foods, almost everything will be affected, this is what causes bad things when there
 are conflicts between countries.