Kalshi Sued Over Refusing to Pay Out Prediction Market After Iran Leader's Death

[rohang]

I still don't know WHY Kalshi did this, but it is definitely not good for them.  Especially as they're looking to raise a massive amount of funds.

The prediction markets have all sorts of problems headed their way.  It isn't good for Kalshi that they're already having issues over something that should have been easy for them.  Wait until people start directly influencing these predictions with illegal activities.  That's when the shit will hit the fan.

Good to see these 'prediction' sites are equally shitty as gambling sites

Hell i would say they are much worse, pretending to be something shinier to avoid being what they truly are and being regulated as such

[Wakate]

Is this rumor new? Because when the US and Israel bombed Iran's supremeleader's house, the Iranian government claimed that their leader was still alive, but later admitted that he died with his wife, daughter, grandkids, along with other high ranking officials. Also, if I remember correctly, currently, Iran has an interim leader, and they are still in the process of picking a permanent one.

We have had about news like this which ended in fallacy. The supreme leader of Iran must have been prepared for this attack and I know they they must have kept him in an underground bonker where it will be very difficult for the United States and Israel bomb to penetrate. If this news was to be true, it would mean that the Iran government were never prepared for what was coming for them after so many preparing and signals from the Chinese satellite.

[acroman08]

We have had about news like this which ended in fallacy. The supreme leader of Iran must have been prepared for this attack and I know they they must have kept him in an underground bonker where it will be very difficult for the United States and Israel bomb to penetrate. If this news was to be true, it would mean that the Iran government were never prepared for what was coming for them after so many preparing and signals from the Chinese satellite.

Yeah, maybe they weren't prepared for the attack. Anyway, I saw an article saying that their leader decided to stay in his house, knowing that it might get targeted, but who knows if he really did decide to stay despite knowing he'll be the target. Btw, Iran has already picked a new leader, it was their previous leader's son.

[mirakal]

We have had about news like this which ended in fallacy. The supreme leader of Iran must have been prepared for this attack and I know they they must have kept him in an underground bonker where it will be very difficult for the United States and Israel bomb to penetrate. If this news was to be true, it would mean that the Iran government were never prepared for what was coming for them after so many preparing and signals from the Chinese satellite.

Yeah that’s possible, they could announce someone is dead even if it’s not fully confirmed yet. Wars are full of misinformation anyway, and countries involved know how powerful the United States is, so they’re probably careful about what they officially say.

At the same time they’re still fighting even though many countries are against them, so what we read in the news might not always reflect what’s really happening on the ground.

But whatever the situation is, a bet is still a bet. If the market was already graded and there’s a clear winner, then it should be paid. No excuses for that.

[Questat]

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But whatever the situation is, a bet is still a bet. If the market was already graded and there’s a clear winner, then it should be paid. No excuses for that.

The issue here is that the bet was graded based on the rules of the game, but the real problem being raised is that those rules were changed after the bets were already accepted. Because of that change, what should have been a winning bet suddenly became a losing one.

It’s understandable why they decided to sue the company, because from their perspective it looks like direct cheating. If the rules were really modified after people had already placed their bets, then that’s a serious issue.

[mirakal]

.

But whatever the situation is, a bet is still a bet. If the market was already graded and there’s a clear winner, then it should be paid. No excuses for that.

The issue here is that the bet was graded based on the rules of the game, but the real problem being raised is that those rules were changed after the bets were already accepted. Because of that change, what should have been a winning bet suddenly became a losing one.

It’s understandable why they decided to sue the company, because from their perspective it looks like direct cheating. If the rules were really modified after people had already placed their bets, then that’s a serious issue.

Yeah I’m aware of that, that’s exactly why they’re being sued now. For bettors to go that far and file a case against Kalshi, they must really believe they were scammed. I don’t know how this will end or who will eventually win the case, but the fact that the lawsuit already exists is a hit to their reputation. And in this kind of market reputation matters a lot. I’m also thinking this could get bigger, especially since Polymarket is one of their toughest competitors. Situations like this could easily be used by competitors to weaken them if the issue keeps growing.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Is this rumor new? Because when the US and Israel bombed Iran's supremeleader's house, the Iranian government claimed that their leader was still alive, but later admitted that he died with his wife, daughter, grandkids, along with other high ranking officials. Also, if I remember correctly, currently, Iran has an interim leader, and they are still in the process of picking a permanent one.

We have had about news like this which ended in fallacy. The supreme leader of Iran must have been prepared for this attack and I know they they must have kept him in an underground bonker where it will be very difficult for the United States and Israel bomb to penetrate. If this news was to be true, it would mean that the Iran government were never prepared for what was coming for them after so many preparing and signals from the Chinese satellite.

Well, sorry to burst your bubble but the news of Iran's supreme leader being killed in the US government bomb blast on the home of the supreme leader is no longer news since it's been confirmed to be true by all major reliable and trusted news outlets, even trump himself confirmed this news through his official Truth social handle and on x, according to the news I read, the remains of the supreme leader was dug up and shown to Trump live in a broadcast to confirm that the man was really dead.

And speaking whether Iran was not prepared, well, this is something I leave for the Irans themselves to answer, but personally, their supreme leader dying in the war is not a sign that they weren't prepared, maybe they simply didn't just think that the US will target the home of the supreme  leader first, the Iran government may have thought that the US and Israel will target their facilities, but unfortunately for them, they calculated wrong.

[AmoreJaz]

.
But whatever the situation is, a bet is still a bet. If the market was already graded and there’s a clear winner, then it should be paid. No excuses for that.

The issue here is that the bet was graded based on the rules of the game, but the real problem being raised is that those rules were changed after the bets were already accepted. Because of that change, what should have been a winning bet suddenly became a losing one.

It’s understandable why they decided to sue the company, because from their perspective it looks like direct cheating. If the rules were really modified after people had already placed their bets, then that’s a serious issue.

It is indeed direct cheating if they already changed the rules after the betting line has been made and bets were taken. What they can do is return the original bet to the users. But if large money is involved, this one will surely be a long lawsuit owed online crypto gambling. As to when it will be resolved? That for sure is quite difficult to determine.

This prediction site is attracting good betting volume.
Just look at this betting line, getting more than $58M of wagered money


 So if they will ruin their reputation with situation like this, won't be long before their patrons will transfer to another prediction market. Thus, they need to be cautious in handling such cases because it can be the reason of their business collapse. Just sayin'

[Fivestar4everMVP]

.
But whatever the situation is, a bet is still a bet. If the market was already graded and there’s a clear winner, then it should be paid. No excuses for that.

The issue here is that the bet was graded based on the rules of the game, but the real problem being raised is that those rules were changed after the bets were already accepted. Because of that change, what should have been a winning bet suddenly became a losing one.

It’s understandable why they decided to sue the company, because from their perspective it looks like direct cheating. If the rules were really modified after people had already placed their bets, then that’s a serious issue.

It is indeed direct cheating if they already changed the rules after the betting line has been made and bets were taken. What they can do is return the original bet to the users. But if large money is involved, this one will surely be a long lawsuit owed online crypto gambling. As to when it will be resolved? That for sure is quite difficult to determine.

I guess if return the initial bet to the bettors is going to settle this case, the platform won't hesitate to do this because they are still at a very huge advantage with this move, but the question I think should be, are the users who sued the platform going to accept to receive back their initial bet and close the case..

This I don't believe will happen because before any body will decide to sue a platform as big as Kalshi, they must have weighed their own abilities and make sure they are up to the tasks and also capable in terms of resources needed to fund the lawsuit..
And as a matter of fact, if every thing really happened the way it's said it happened, you and will agree that big money must be involved, this is what drove the people behind the platform to changing their own rules so they won't have to pay the large amount.. And also the large amount involved is also what drove the bettors to filing a lawsuit against the platform because money involved is one they can't account to lose, not when they actually won it.

[Questat]

And speaking whether Iran was not prepared, well, this is something I leave for the Irans themselves to answer, but personally, their supreme leader dying in the war is not a sign that they weren't prepared, maybe they simply didn't just think that the US will target the home of the supreme  leader first, the Iran government may have thought that the US and Israel will target their facilities, but unfortunately for them, they calculated wrong.

The supreme leader died but his son replaced his position and Iran still keeps the same stance in this conflict, so nothing really changed.

But that part is no longer related to the bet itself. The bet was already graded and there were official news confirming that he was dead, so the market had to be settled. The problem is that Kalshi did not include death as a valid way of removal, even though it was previously listed in the rules.

So it's still hanging now while the lawsuit is still active.

[Haunebu]

The supreme leader died but his son replaced his position and Iran still keeps the same stance in this conflict, so nothing really changed.

But that part is no longer related to the bet itself. The bet was already graded and there were official news confirming that he was dead, so the market had to be settled. The problem is that Kalshi did not include death as a valid way of removal, even though it was previously listed in the rules.

So it's still hanging now while the lawsuit is still active.

Well said. Most people including me were pretty sure that this forced regime change would do nada for the people of their country and would screw the economy thanks to them closing the Strait of Hormuz due to which oil prices would rise and that is exactly what happened.

However, it's crazy that Kalshi refuses to payout for the death outcome since it was the most likely outcome all along. Weird! These are sadly the inherent risks associated with prediction market betting.