Iran War Will Leave a Complex Geoeconomic Legacy..

[so98nn]

This is definitely by far major change in the economics of world. On the one side the War is underway and on the other side it's definitely smart economist who must be studying the impacts of this and outlaying all the foreign policies for future to come. Iran is now going lead the Strait of Hormuz as powerful shield against many countries.

Many countries would want to form a friendly alliance with Iran if it won the war in the future as they would be controlling major oil reserves and transports from the Hormuz.

It would be very interesting to see how the global leaders will react with each other. Like who will have which diplomatic relation with whom to maintain the economical situation in the time to come.

[Iranus]

I think so, and we're starting to see how each country is making decisions so that they won't be hit too much economically. So, it's time for those hugely affected by this conflict on which side they're going to be. Iran just announced that any countries who likes to pass the Strait of Hormuz needs to kick out any representative or ambassadors of US and Israel on their countries. I saw it in the news that one country has already made up a decision and that's Spain, I haven't seen any new country to be reported that decided with the said thing.

Spain is not taking side and its decision to permanently withdraw its ambassador from Israel has nothing to do with Iran's demands. They did this to strongly protest the US and Israeli attack on Iran. Previously, they had also refused to allow the US to use joint military bases to attack Iran.

It can be said that this is one of the few European countries that dares to stand up and speak the truth and protest against the evil deeds committed by the US.

[goldkingcoiner]

I think so, and we're starting to see how each country is making decisions so that they won't be hit too much economically. So, it's time for those hugely affected by this conflict on which side they're going to be. Iran just announced that any countries who likes to pass the Strait of Hormuz needs to kick out any representative or ambassadors of US and Israel on their countries. I saw it in the news that one country has already made up a decision and that's Spain, I haven't seen any new country to be reported that decided with the said thing.

Spain is not taking side and its decision to permanently withdraw its ambassador from Israel has nothing to do with Iran's demands. They did this to strongly protest the US and Israeli attack on Iran. Previously, they had also refused to allow the US to use joint military bases to attack Iran.

It can be said that this is one of the few European countries that dares to stand up and speak the truth and protest against the evil deeds committed by the US.

Spain is part of NATO. It will unfortunately be pulled into this war if it is not stopped.

A lot of doomtalk on this thread. Maybe the world leaders think they can survive in the mountain caves or something? Everyone is trying to stop this madness in their own way. At least I hope.

[Joy_learns_crypto]

We are already feeling the economic impact as gasoline prices have increased significantly. I’m speaking based on experience in our country, because whenever fuel prices go up everything else usually follows.

Right now some people are even stocking gasoline since another increase is expected tomorrow. And this might just be the beginning, since conflicts like this rarely end quickly. Even if the war itself eventually stops, the economic effects usually continue for a long time. So in reality the impact becomes global, and many countries feel the pressure even if they are not directly involved in the conflict.

Fuel price has gone up in my country I don’t know if it caused by the Iran war and also over here when fuel prices goes up almost every thing prices goes up.
It is a shame if my country has to experience fuel price increase because of the war in Iran, we have large amounts of petroleum resources but we still depend on outside sources.

[viljy]

It's too early to try to guess what will change and how. It is clear that the United States has the goal of establishing full control over the entire oil trade in order to prolong the existence of the petrodollar. That is, to continue to live as before. However, this is hardly possible anymore. As for the war against Iran, there is a danger of this war escalating into an open world war (which in fact is already underway, simply in the form of local wars).

Not only the war in the Middle East, but the war between Russia and Ukraine is also an open world war


In my opinion, these two proxy wars were essentially confrontations between the two most powerful forces in the world. On one side are the United States and its allies, whose goal is to maintain its dominance and petrodollar empire. On one side are Russia and China, both of whom want to break up monopolies and open up a multipolar world


No one want war to happen, but given the current political climate, it seems inevitable. Even if these wars do not happen in 2026, they will still happen in the not too distant future, IMO

In general, I agree with you. If a conflict with the direct participation of China begins, then the World War will become quite obvious. The threat is that nuclear weapons can be used by the parties. I don't know what the probability is, but it seems to me that it is quite high. Unfortunately, just as war is inevitable (for objective economic reasons), so is the use of the most powerful weapons (which, of course, no one would want).

[danherbias07]

Already feeling it. Damn war.

Anyway, it's the gas prices that increased, and everyone I talked to is hurting about it. Then, of course, when gas prices increase, that means everything will. Rice, meat, vegetables, and even other kinds of stuff that were imported. Now, what I am waiting for is the electric bill, and I bet it is also going to be high. Well, it will take a month before I can compare the difference.

In regards about power or global alliances. I am guessing some countries are now pressured because they don't know if they will be the next to be attacked. It's not a religious war anymore. It's an economic war, and getting that top spot seems like what they are aiming for. Showing strength to create fear.

[davis196]

What are your thoughts?
Do you think a conflict involving Iran could significantly reshape global energy markets and economic alliances in the long term?

It depends of how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked by Iranian drones and missiles. AFAIK, the Strait of Hormuz isn't blocked by the Iranian navy, but no oil tanker owner would agree to risk his tanker and go through the Strait. I don't believe that any economic alliances could be "reshaped" by this conflict. The only change I could think of is the European countries suddenly deciding to lift the ban over Russian oil (if the Strait of Hormuz gets blocked for a longer time and the oil prices keep going up). However, this won't lead to lower oil prices in the future, because European and Asian countries will have to compete for buying more Russian oil.

[Dunamisx]

We don't know the extent this is going, but I'm very sure that the more it taking longer, the harder it becomes and things continued to escalate beyond measures, we should try as much as possible to avoid anything that may lead to war, because the consequences are unbearable to man and the economy, now the whole world is paying for what the don't even know about, why is Iran to adamant and why is Israel more curious together with US, except this is being settled, we may be unable to quantify the extent of the damage this is going to cost over time.

[tsaroz]

This miscalculated war waged by US might be the ultimate path for fall of US's hegemony.
The world, at least the middle east won't be same again. If Iran gets to continue its nuclear program, Saudi too would want some. Iran and Saudi are waging cold war against each other in Yemen and are regional rivals.
A worn out US means a weakened Ukraine and it would also make it easier for China to take Taiwan. Long period of high oil price would make EU poorer and Russia richer.

[DrBeer]

...
What are your thoughts?
Do you think a conflict involving Iran could significantly reshape global energy markets and economic alliances in the long term?

There are not many options here.
The ruling regime remains in power: tension, terror, and the export of terrorism will continue in the Middle East and beyond. The ruling regime of religious fanatics will feel impunity and will continue to press on the “pain points” of the developed world.
 The reason is simple: anti-human regimes do not build a prosperous world; they build paradise on earth for themselves and hell for their slaves and everyone around them. The export of terror, hidden under the name “Export of the Arab Revolution,” will continue. In short, tensions in the region and beyond are likely to increase, and oil terror will continue.
The ruling regime is falling, the people of Iran are gaining their freedoms, Iran is returning to the normal world and becoming a full-fledged participant in a civilized world: development, progress, restoration of ties with the global economy, freedoms, and the attraction of investment—remember what Iran was like before the arrival of those rabid fanatics who dragged Iran back to the “Stone Age”! It was a secular, developed country seeking mutually beneficial cooperation with the whole world and its neighbors. In this case, the only center and sponsor of regional terrorism will essentially disappear, leading to rapid economic growth in the region and stabilization of the situation throughout the world.

[JetSeason]

You’re right that conflicts in the Middle East usually affect oil prices and global markets. If something happens near the Strait of Hormuz, it could disrupt a large part of the world’s oil supply. More about the Strait of Hormuz and oil transport:
https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/Strait_of_Hormuz.php   

[aioc]

What are your thoughts?
Do you think a conflict involving Iran could significantly reshape global energy markets and economic alliances in the long term?

It is, we can ignore all the other wars, but it's different when economies are at stake. We are thousands of miles away from the actual war, but we felt the impact, and it's not just us; many countries share the same sentiment and situation.
It's time for every government to reflect and develop a new plan to stop relying on the Middle East for its oil needs, because the Region is now one of the riskiest places due to the arms buildup, conflicts of interest, and differing beliefs.
Our government should implement renewable energy policies because we are situated in a tropical country, where it is ideal.

[ZAINmalik75]

If the tension increases around Iran due to the war it will not only affect the government, it will affect the ordinary people because of the high price in fuel, transportation and even in food price. And in this kind of situation some countries are forced to look for a new place or new energy sources and trade partners, which can slowly change how the global economy works

When people are not happy with their leaders and with their actions, it gets hard for those leaders to win again and be their leader. Because people won't vote for them next time. The same is with the US. Trump has less chance of winning again, someone else is going to take the place next time, and I think it will be their first time too.

Governments and alliances have already been broken by this war. Those who supported the US are not going to see any tariff war, but those who have not supported the US and Israel are going to face a trade war. For example, Trump said they won't make any trade with Spain because they banned their bases for military usage.

[EFS]

This isn't very different from other major wars. Every war changes certain balances and the ones who always lose are the people. Just as what happened in Ukraine affected the world, Iran is affecting it as well. The war era will continue and we'll likely see other wars in the near future. It'd be good to be prepared for that.

[Reatim]

Even if the war itself eventually stops, the economic effects usually continue for a long time. So in reality the impact becomes global, and many countries feel the pressure even if they are not directly involved in the conflict.

if the war continues on for longer and the middle east stay shut, i am worried about the state my country will find themselves in because the reserves won’t last forever and who knows how high the gasoline prices can go to if we run out of reserves

[liasbaa]

Most wars in the world have resulted in losses for both sides but little gain for powerful state. Among the wars that the US forces have waged over the past three decades, Iraq and Libya were fought to take over the oil industry. In the case of Iran, there is almost a plan, but Iran is geographically in a favourable position, so it will not be easy to create a division between their governments very soon. Israel and the US government have tried to destroy Iran economy and military sector in many ways, but most of the time they have failed. Iran losses in this war are much higher, but the war is also likely to be long term.

The attempt to create a global trade bloc failed because their aim was to reduce dependence on the dollar and introduce a separate exchange currency, but the powerful country America has thwarted that attempt because it stood against the establishment of a separate economic alliance and a separate currency system and threatened to impose high tariffs on those countries. In particular, the economic alliance of the BRICS group has failed to establish their separate and independent trade system.

There was a prediction that World War III would occur centered around the oil industry. I think it has already started and is spreading to most of the countries in the Middle East and the world is heading towards a long-term conflict with very terrible consequences.

[free-bit.co.in]

If the tension increases around Iran due to the war it will not only affect the government, it will affect the ordinary people because of the high price in fuel, transportation and even in food price. And in this kind of situation some countries are forced to look for a new place or new energy sources and trade partners, which can slowly change how the global economy works

When people are not happy with their leaders and with their actions, it gets hard for those leaders to win again and be their leader. Because people won't vote for them next time. The same is with the US. Trump has less chance of winning again, someone else is going to take the place next time, and I think it will be their first time too.

Governments and alliances have already been broken by this war. Those who supported the US are not going to see any tariff war, but those who have not supported the US and Israel are going to face a trade war. For example, Trump said they won't make any trade with Spain because they banned their bases for military usage.

According to the constitution, each president can only serve a maximum of two terms, and this is Trump's second term. He cannot run for another term. Not only that, Trump's approval ratings are at a record low, which mean that American public confidence in the Republican Party is waning. It is highly likely that the Democratic Party will regain control of the White House in the next term.

However, Trump's presidency has only entered its second year, which means that bad thing like this are not going to disappear anytime soon.

[justdimin]

Many countries would want to form a friendly alliance with Iran if it won the war in the future as they would be controlling major oil reserves and transports from the Hormuz.

Yeah, but nobody wants to go against Trump because he's absolutely crazy, and sometimes it feels like anyone who is not on his side is against him. That's the perception towards the UK after Starmer took a defensive approach initially.

That said, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and it's shooting in your leg if a country goes against Iran. Unless the US totally takes over Iran, which is nearly impossible, it's generally good for countries to stay neutral because most can't oppose the US for obvious reasons.

Nobody wants to poke Trump but at the same time, nobody wants to get cut off from the Strait of Hormuz.