First way to know this is a scam is because quantum computers are not yet a threat. The second is that you can check the link for the update, the link will be different from the official link, and that means the link is a link that belongs to scammers. This kind of phishing attack is common to Ledger Nano users.
True but many have a fear of this and prying on this will give hackers leverage often to get more victims, a part of social engineering approach.
We have seen many especially newbies asked questions about quantum computers breaking wallet but in an actual sense that's not the case yet it shows how many are thinking and I'm not surprised attackers are leveraging on this.
If there are more users that is complain about this, the email of the people that bought the wallet directly from the company could have been leaked.
There are ways to identify if a person is using a service often obvious for many since the majority are not privacy cautious or still leave much trace based on what they leave while having conversation also but if many customers suffers from the same fate like you said then it id safe to push the breach more likely on them.