Bitcoin vote on BIP-110: 98% said NO (11.57 BTC)

[Koinvote]

Recently I hosted a Bitcoin vote about the proposal:

Should Bitcoin activate BIP-110?

Participants only needed to sign a Bitcoin message with their address to join. 
No coins were moved and no custody was required.

Total participation: 11.57 BTC

Result:
• No — 98.37% 
• Yes — 1.63%

Interesting contrast with Twitter sentiment

On Twitter, both camps appear much closer in support.

You can see the rough sentiment tracking here:
https://consensus.health

From that data, it looks like the debate around BIP-110 is relatively balanced between supporters and opponents.

However, when the same question is asked through a Bitcoin-signed vote, the outcome looks dramatically different.

Instead of a close race, the result was overwhelmingly against activation.

A possible interpretation

Putting aside the subjective merits of BIP-110, this result raises an interesting question.

If a proposal receives overwhelming opposition in a vote where participants reveal their Bitcoin addresses and balances, can the result be interpreted as a market signal?

In this case, 98.37% of the participating BTC opposed activation.

One possible conclusion is that if BIP-110 were activated, the market reaction could be negative for Bitcoin’s price.

Question

Putting aside the subjective merits of BIP-110, do you think this Bitcoin vote suggests that if BIP-110 were activated, it could be negative for Bitcoin’s price?

[Upgrade00]

The contrast between the Twitter poll and Bitcoin vote isn't much really; 66% to 23% is hardly a balance between supporters and opponents.
The difference may be because the Bitcoin core has a much smaller number of participants, but the sentiment is the same in both.

About your question, I do not think you can use this as a market signal at all. Demand and supply is what moves the price, I not agreeing with a certain BIP does not mean it will change my perception of Bitcoin or how I value it

[Koinvote]

The contrast between the Twitter poll and Bitcoin vote isn't much really; 66% to 23% is hardly a balance between supporters and opponents.
The difference may be because the Bitcoin core has a much smaller number of participants, but the sentiment is the same in both.

About your question, I do not think you can use this as a market signal at all. Demand and supply is what moves the price, I not agreeing with a certain BIP does not mean it will change my perception of Bitcoin or how I value it

You’re right that price ultimately comes from supply and demand.
But one element might be missing in that reasoning: the scenario where a BIP that someone disagrees with is actually adopted.
For example, if a proposal were perceived as changing something fundamental about Bitcoin (such as the supply cap), some holders might decide to sell.
If that happens, it would increase supply on the market, which could put downward pressure on price.
So the question is not simply whether people *agree or disagree* with a BIP, but what they might do if the change were actually implemented.
That’s why I find the result of this Bitcoin vote interesting. If 98% of the participating BTC opposed activation, could that indicate that adoption of BIP-110 might trigger selling from some holders?
Not necessarily a definitive signal, but perhaps an early indication of potential market reaction.

[Upgrade00]

That’s why I find the result of this Bitcoin vote interesting. If 98% of the participating BTC opposed activation, could that indicate that adoption of BIP-110 might trigger selling from some holders?
Not necessarily a definitive signal, but perhaps an early indication of potential market reaction.

In most cases, for a BIP to get approval you need very close to 100% support for it from nodes. If this happens there is little to no risk of a market reaction as it is generally by accepted by everyone.

If it is a proposal that affects the fundamentals of Bitcoin and general consensus is not reached, you could get a hard fork splitting the parties in different directions. This would also mean that the price of "Bitcoin" doesn't get affected by the outcome.

[Koinvote]

That’s why I find the result of this Bitcoin vote interesting. If 98% of the participating BTC opposed activation, could that indicate that adoption of BIP-110 might trigger selling from some holders?
Not necessarily a definitive signal, but perhaps an early indication of potential market reaction.

In most cases, for a BIP to get approval you need very close to 100% support for it from nodes. If this happens there is little to no risk of a market reaction as it is generally by accepted by everyone.

If it is a proposal that affects the fundamentals of Bitcoin and general consensus is not reached, you could get a hard fork splitting the parties in different directions. This would also mean that the price of "Bitcoin" doesn't get affected by the outcome.

I understand the point about node consensus.
But I’m curious about a slightly different scenario.
What if almost all nodes agree to adopt a change, while a large portion of Bitcoin holders dislike it?
Nodes determine the rules of the network, but holders still control the supply that can enter the market. If a change were widely perceived by holders as harmful to Bitcoin’s fundamentals, some of them might decide to sell.

In that case, could a negative market reaction still happen even if node consensus is close to 100%?

[ABCbits]

Question

Putting aside the subjective merits of BIP-110, do you think this Bitcoin vote suggests that if BIP-110 were activated, it could be negative for Bitcoin’s price?

Yes, assuming BIP 110 activated by barely received 55% of miner hashrate support. There's possibility it'll cause network/chain split that confuse people (such as selling wrong coin), especially if there's no protection against replay attack.